Trader consensus at 70% Yes for Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 reflects the continued absence of any resolution triggers through late May, including leadership changes in the United States, China, or Iran, invasions of Taiwan or NATO territory, U.S. military action against Iran, a Republican Senate supermajority, extreme Bitcoin price moves, or major natural disasters. Routine diplomatic engagement, legislative activity, and economic reporting have not crossed these thresholds since the market opened in January. With seven months remaining, the pricing incorporates the low base rates for such tail events while recognizing that sudden escalations in ongoing tensions or unforeseen domestic shifts could still alter the outcome before December 31.