Trader consensus prices a 63.5% chance of "Something Happens" in the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market, driven primarily by perceived escalation risks in U.S.-Iran tensions following the Trump administration's January military raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, which demonstrated resolve for regime-change operations and raised odds on U.S. invasion of Iran or Iranian regime fall—the key triggers per market rules. This early-2026 action, combined with ongoing Middle East proxy conflicts, overshadows lower-probability scenarios like China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping exiting power, or Trump leaving the presidency prematurely. March primaries kicked off 2026 midterms, adding domestic uncertainty, but traders focus on verifiable geopolitical catalysts through year-end resolution on December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$450,960 Vol.
$450,960 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$450,960 Vol.
$450,960 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 63.5% chance of "Something Happens" in the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market, driven primarily by perceived escalation risks in U.S.-Iran tensions following the Trump administration's January military raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, which demonstrated resolve for regime-change operations and raised odds on U.S. invasion of Iran or Iranian regime fall—the key triggers per market rules. This early-2026 action, combined with ongoing Middle East proxy conflicts, overshadows lower-probability scenarios like China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping exiting power, or Trump leaving the presidency prematurely. March primaries kicked off 2026 midterms, adding domestic uncertainty, but traders focus on verifiable geopolitical catalysts through year-end resolution on December 31.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
音量
$450,960終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 63.5% chance of "Something Happens" in the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market, driven primarily by perceived escalation risks in U.S.-Iran tensions following the Trump administration's January military raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, which demonstrated resolve for regime-change operations and raised odds on U.S. invasion of Iran or Iranian regime fall—the key triggers per market rules. This early-2026 action, combined with ongoing Middle East proxy conflicts, overshadows lower-probability scenarios like China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping exiting power, or Trump leaving the presidency prematurely. March primaries kicked off 2026 midterms, adding domestic uncertainty, but traders focus on verifiable geopolitical catalysts through year-end resolution on December 31.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
音量
$450,960終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 63.5% chance of "Something Happens" in the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market, driven primarily by perceived escalation risks in U.S.-Iran tensions following the Trump administration's January military raid capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, which demonstrated resolve for regime-change operations and raised odds on U.S. invasion of Iran or Iranian regime fall—the key triggers per market rules. This early-2026 action, combined with ongoing Middle East proxy conflicts, overshadows lower-probability scenarios like China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping exiting power, or Trump leaving the presidency prematurely. March primaries kicked off 2026 midterms, adding domestic uncertainty, but traders focus on verifiable geopolitical catalysts through year-end resolution on December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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