Trader consensus prices "No" at 62% for Nothing Ever Happens: 2026, reflecting expectations that at least one trigger event—such as U.S. invasion of Iran or Iranian regime collapse—will occur by year-end amid escalating geopolitical tensions. The ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran war, initiated by surprise airstrikes on February 28, has intensified over the past week, with Iran downing two U.S. jets, striking Gulf refineries, and prompting President Trump's warnings of attacks on Iranian infrastructure. Day 36 updates show continued airstrikes beyond military targets, heightening risks of ground invasion or regime instability despite no verified leadership change. China-Taiwan military drills persist without invasion signals, while Xi Jinping faces no recent removal threats and Trump shows no resignation indicators. Midterm elections loom as potential policy shifters.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$446,535 Vol.
$446,535 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$446,535 Vol.
$446,535 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices "No" at 62% for Nothing Ever Happens: 2026, reflecting expectations that at least one trigger event—such as U.S. invasion of Iran or Iranian regime collapse—will occur by year-end amid escalating geopolitical tensions. The ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran war, initiated by surprise airstrikes on February 28, has intensified over the past week, with Iran downing two U.S. jets, striking Gulf refineries, and prompting President Trump's warnings of attacks on Iranian infrastructure. Day 36 updates show continued airstrikes beyond military targets, heightening risks of ground invasion or regime instability despite no verified leadership change. China-Taiwan military drills persist without invasion signals, while Xi Jinping faces no recent removal threats and Trump shows no resignation indicators. Midterm elections loom as potential policy shifters.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
音量
$446,535終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices "No" at 62% for Nothing Ever Happens: 2026, reflecting expectations that at least one trigger event—such as U.S. invasion of Iran or Iranian regime collapse—will occur by year-end amid escalating geopolitical tensions. The ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran war, initiated by surprise airstrikes on February 28, has intensified over the past week, with Iran downing two U.S. jets, striking Gulf refineries, and prompting President Trump's warnings of attacks on Iranian infrastructure. Day 36 updates show continued airstrikes beyond military targets, heightening risks of ground invasion or regime instability despite no verified leadership change. China-Taiwan military drills persist without invasion signals, while Xi Jinping faces no recent removal threats and Trump shows no resignation indicators. Midterm elections loom as potential policy shifters.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
音量
$446,535終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 62% for Nothing Ever Happens: 2026, reflecting expectations that at least one trigger event—such as U.S. invasion of Iran or Iranian regime collapse—will occur by year-end amid escalating geopolitical tensions. The ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran war, initiated by surprise airstrikes on February 28, has intensified over the past week, with Iran downing two U.S. jets, striking Gulf refineries, and prompting President Trump's warnings of attacks on Iranian infrastructure. Day 36 updates show continued airstrikes beyond military targets, heightening risks of ground invasion or regime instability despite no verified leadership change. China-Taiwan military drills persist without invasion signals, while Xi Jinping faces no recent removal threats and Trump shows no resignation indicators. Midterm elections loom as potential policy shifters.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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