Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 68% for no major disruptions through December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events in the first four months since market launch, including President Trump remaining securely in office amid routine administration actions, Xi Jinping's continued leadership without upheaval, and no escalatory military invasions such as China into Taiwan, Russia into a NATO country, or U.S. forces into Iran. The Iranian regime shows no signs of collapse, Bitcoin holds steady between $10,000 and $1 million, and no Senate supermajority projections post-2026 midterms have materialized. Recent weeks feature diplomatic stasis over Taiwan Strait tensions and Ukraine-related NATO rhetoric without breakthroughs, underscoring stability despite lingering risks from November midterms or unforeseen geopolitical shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$550,114 Vol.
$550,114 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$550,114 Vol.
$550,114 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices "Yes" at 68% for no major disruptions through December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events in the first four months since market launch, including President Trump remaining securely in office amid routine administration actions, Xi Jinping's continued leadership without upheaval, and no escalatory military invasions such as China into Taiwan, Russia into a NATO country, or U.S. forces into Iran. The Iranian regime shows no signs of collapse, Bitcoin holds steady between $10,000 and $1 million, and no Senate supermajority projections post-2026 midterms have materialized. Recent weeks feature diplomatic stasis over Taiwan Strait tensions and Ukraine-related NATO rhetoric without breakthroughs, underscoring stability despite lingering risks from November midterms or unforeseen geopolitical shifts.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
音量
$550,114終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices "Yes" at 68% for no major disruptions through December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events in the first four months since market launch, including President Trump remaining securely in office amid routine administration actions, Xi Jinping's continued leadership without upheaval, and no escalatory military invasions such as China into Taiwan, Russia into a NATO country, or U.S. forces into Iran. The Iranian regime shows no signs of collapse, Bitcoin holds steady between $10,000 and $1 million, and no Senate supermajority projections post-2026 midterms have materialized. Recent weeks feature diplomatic stasis over Taiwan Strait tensions and Ukraine-related NATO rhetoric without breakthroughs, underscoring stability despite lingering risks from November midterms or unforeseen geopolitical shifts.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
音量
$550,114終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 68% for no major disruptions through December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events in the first four months since market launch, including President Trump remaining securely in office amid routine administration actions, Xi Jinping's continued leadership without upheaval, and no escalatory military invasions such as China into Taiwan, Russia into a NATO country, or U.S. forces into Iran. The Iranian regime shows no signs of collapse, Bitcoin holds steady between $10,000 and $1 million, and no Senate supermajority projections post-2026 midterms have materialized. Recent weeks feature diplomatic stasis over Taiwan Strait tensions and Ukraine-related NATO rhetoric without breakthroughs, underscoring stability despite lingering risks from November midterms or unforeseen geopolitical shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問