Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 70.5% for no major black swan events through December 2026, driven by the complete absence of resolution triggers in the first four months, including President Trump's secure tenure amid standard executive actions, Xi Jinping's uninterrupted leadership, and Iranian regime stability without collapse. Geopolitical tensions in the Taiwan Strait, Iran, and Ukraine-Russia front have shown no escalation to invasion—neither China into Taiwan, U.S. forces into Iran, nor Russia into a NATO country—bolstering odds despite diplomatic rhetoric. Bitcoin remains stably between $10,000 and $1 million, no catastrophic natural disasters have struck, and pre-midterm projections show no path to Republican Senate supermajority or trifecta. November congressional elections loom as the next potential catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$551,902 Vol.
$551,902 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$551,902 Vol.
$551,902 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices "Yes" at 70.5% for no major black swan events through December 2026, driven by the complete absence of resolution triggers in the first four months, including President Trump's secure tenure amid standard executive actions, Xi Jinping's uninterrupted leadership, and Iranian regime stability without collapse. Geopolitical tensions in the Taiwan Strait, Iran, and Ukraine-Russia front have shown no escalation to invasion—neither China into Taiwan, U.S. forces into Iran, nor Russia into a NATO country—bolstering odds despite diplomatic rhetoric. Bitcoin remains stably between $10,000 and $1 million, no catastrophic natural disasters have struck, and pre-midterm projections show no path to Republican Senate supermajority or trifecta. November congressional elections loom as the next potential catalyst.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
音量
$551,902終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices "Yes" at 70.5% for no major black swan events through December 2026, driven by the complete absence of resolution triggers in the first four months, including President Trump's secure tenure amid standard executive actions, Xi Jinping's uninterrupted leadership, and Iranian regime stability without collapse. Geopolitical tensions in the Taiwan Strait, Iran, and Ukraine-Russia front have shown no escalation to invasion—neither China into Taiwan, U.S. forces into Iran, nor Russia into a NATO country—bolstering odds despite diplomatic rhetoric. Bitcoin remains stably between $10,000 and $1 million, no catastrophic natural disasters have struck, and pre-midterm projections show no path to Republican Senate supermajority or trifecta. November congressional elections loom as the next potential catalyst.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
音量
$551,902終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 70.5% for no major black swan events through December 2026, driven by the complete absence of resolution triggers in the first four months, including President Trump's secure tenure amid standard executive actions, Xi Jinping's uninterrupted leadership, and Iranian regime stability without collapse. Geopolitical tensions in the Taiwan Strait, Iran, and Ukraine-Russia front have shown no escalation to invasion—neither China into Taiwan, U.S. forces into Iran, nor Russia into a NATO country—bolstering odds despite diplomatic rhetoric. Bitcoin remains stably between $10,000 and $1 million, no catastrophic natural disasters have struck, and pre-midterm projections show no path to Republican Senate supermajority or trifecta. November congressional elections loom as the next potential catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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