Ongoing maritime confrontations in the South China Sea, including recent aircraft interceptions near Scarborough Shoal and coast guard obstructions around Thitu Island, have sustained tensions without crossing into open military conflict. Both Beijing and Manila continue to rely on coast guard and maritime militia operations rather than naval or air force engagements, while diplomatic protests and bilateral channels remain active. Philippine resupply missions and law enforcement patrols have faced repeated interference, yet no fatalities or sustained exchanges of fire have occurred in the past month. U.S. alliance commitments and regional diplomatic efforts appear to reinforce restraint, contributing to trader consensus that a full-scale clash remains improbable before the 2027 deadline.