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icon for 2026年のブルーウェーブ？
政治·議会

2026年のブルーウェーブ？

icon for 2026年のブルーウェーブ？
政治·議会

2026年のブルーウェーブ？

はい

77% 確率
Polymarket

$41,498 Vol.

はい

77% 確率
Polymarket

$41,498 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus on a 77% implied probability for a Democratic "blue wave" in the 2026 midterms reflects persistent leads in generic congressional ballot polls, averaging 5-9 points in recent surveys like RMG Research's +9 (May 4-6) and Marist's +10, echoing pre-2018 momentum when the president's party lost 40 House seats. Democrats have flipped 27 Republican-held state legislative seats in special elections since early 2025 with no GOP reciprocals, signaling overperformance amid Trump's low approval on inflation and record 38 Republican retirements. Senate control has tightened to a toss-up per prediction markets and models like the Economist's 50-47 GOP edge, with competitive races in Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Texas, and Ohio. Historical midterm penalties for the incumbent party bolster expectations of House flips, though Republican fundraising superiority tempers certainty ahead of November 3.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:

- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
音量
$41,498
終了日
2026/11/30
マーケット開始日
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus on a 77% implied probability for a Democratic "blue wave" in the 2026 midterms reflects persistent leads in generic congressional ballot polls, averaging 5-9 points in recent surveys like RMG Research's +9 (May 4-6) and Marist's +10, echoing pre-2018 momentum when the president's party lost 40 House seats. Democrats have flipped 27 Republican-held state legislative seats in special elections since early 2025 with no GOP reciprocals, signaling overperformance amid Trump's low approval on inflation and record 38 Republican retirements. Senate control has tightened to a toss-up per prediction markets and models like the Economist's 50-47 GOP edge, with competitive races in Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Texas, and Ohio. Historical midterm penalties for the incumbent party bolster expectations of House flips, though Republican fundraising superiority tempers certainty ahead of November 3.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:

- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
音量
$41,498
終了日
2026/11/30
マーケット開始日
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「2026年のブルーウェーブ？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2026年のブルーウェーブは？」で77%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、77¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に77%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年のブルーウェーブ？」は$41.5Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Jan 14, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年のブルーウェーブ？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年のブルーウェーブ？」の現在のフロントランナーは「2026年のブルーウェーブは？」で77%であり、市場がこの結果に77%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年のブルーウェーブ？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。