Trader consensus prices a 79% implied probability on a Democratic blue wave—defined as capturing at least 218 House seats and a Senate majority—in the November 2026 midterms, driven by the historical midterm curse where the president's party has lost House control in 18 of the last 20 cycles amid narrow Republican majorities (House slim edge, Senate 53-47 including independents). Recent catalysts include a record wave of House GOP retirements announced last week in battleground districts, signaling vulnerability, alongside early generic ballot polls showing Democrats leading by 3-5 points per NYT and RCP averages updated this week. Senate math favors Republicans defending fewer seats, but escalating government shutdown risks and Trump administration controversies could boost Democratic turnout in swing states, though primary results and economic shifts remain key wildcards ahead of fall campaigns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$27,700 Vol.
$27,700 Vol.
2026/11/30
はい
$27,700 Vol.
$27,700 Vol.
2026/11/30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus prices a 79% implied probability on a Democratic blue wave—defined as capturing at least 218 House seats and a Senate majority—in the November 2026 midterms, driven by the historical midterm curse where the president's party has lost House control in 18 of the last 20 cycles amid narrow Republican majorities (House slim edge, Senate 53-47 including independents). Recent catalysts include a record wave of House GOP retirements announced last week in battleground districts, signaling vulnerability, alongside early generic ballot polls showing Democrats leading by 3-5 points per NYT and RCP averages updated this week. Senate math favors Republicans defending fewer seats, but escalating government shutdown risks and Trump administration controversies could boost Democratic turnout in swing states, though primary results and economic shifts remain key wildcards ahead of fall campaigns.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
マーケット開始日： Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
音量
$27,700終了日
2026/11/30マーケット開始日
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfTrader consensus prices a 79% implied probability on a Democratic blue wave—defined as capturing at least 218 House seats and a Senate majority—in the November 2026 midterms, driven by the historical midterm curse where the president's party has lost House control in 18 of the last 20 cycles amid narrow Republican majorities (House slim edge, Senate 53-47 including independents). Recent catalysts include a record wave of House GOP retirements announced last week in battleground districts, signaling vulnerability, alongside early generic ballot polls showing Democrats leading by 3-5 points per NYT and RCP averages updated this week. Senate math favors Republicans defending fewer seats, but escalating government shutdown risks and Trump administration controversies could boost Democratic turnout in swing states, though primary results and economic shifts remain key wildcards ahead of fall campaigns.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
音量
$27,700終了日
2026/11/30マーケット開始日
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 79% implied probability on a Democratic blue wave—defined as capturing at least 218 House seats and a Senate majority—in the November 2026 midterms, driven by the historical midterm curse where the president's party has lost House control in 18 of the last 20 cycles amid narrow Republican majorities (House slim edge, Senate 53-47 including independents). Recent catalysts include a record wave of House GOP retirements announced last week in battleground districts, signaling vulnerability, alongside early generic ballot polls showing Democrats leading by 3-5 points per NYT and RCP averages updated this week. Senate math favors Republicans defending fewer seats, but escalating government shutdown risks and Trump administration controversies could boost Democratic turnout in swing states, though primary results and economic shifts remain key wildcards ahead of fall campaigns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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