Incumbent Rep. Pat Fallon (R) dominated the March 3 Republican primary in solidly Republican TX-04 with 81% of the vote against challenger Don Horn, securing the nomination for the November 3 general election against Jason Pearce, who narrowly won a competitive Democratic primary 52%-48%. The district's R+16 Cook Partisan Voter Index, Fallon's past victories exceeding 65% margins, and unanimous Safe/Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball drive trader consensus at 86% for Republicans. Fallon's $1 million cash-on-hand dwarfs Pearce's $2,000, reinforcing the structural edge absent late-breaking developments like scandals or national wave shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
86%
民主党
15%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$1,656 Vol.
86%
民主党
$1,842 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Pat Fallon (R) dominated the March 3 Republican primary in solidly Republican TX-04 with 81% of the vote against challenger Don Horn, securing the nomination for the November 3 general election against Jason Pearce, who narrowly won a competitive Democratic primary 52%-48%. The district's R+16 Cook Partisan Voter Index, Fallon's past victories exceeding 65% margins, and unanimous Safe/Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball drive trader consensus at 86% for Republicans. Fallon's $1 million cash-on-hand dwarfs Pearce's $2,000, reinforcing the structural edge absent late-breaking developments like scandals or national wave shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$3,498終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Pat Fallon (R) dominated the March 3 Republican primary in solidly Republican TX-04 with 81% of the vote against challenger Don Horn, securing the nomination for the November 3 general election against Jason Pearce, who narrowly won a competitive Democratic primary 52%-48%. The district's R+16 Cook Partisan Voter Index, Fallon's past victories exceeding 65% margins, and unanimous Safe/Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball drive trader consensus at 86% for Republicans. Fallon's $1 million cash-on-hand dwarfs Pearce's $2,000, reinforcing the structural edge absent late-breaking developments like scandals or national wave shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$3,498終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Pat Fallon (R) dominated the March 3 Republican primary in solidly Republican TX-04 with 81% of the vote against challenger Don Horn, securing the nomination for the November 3 general election against Jason Pearce, who narrowly won a competitive Democratic primary 52%-48%. The district's R+16 Cook Partisan Voter Index, Fallon's past victories exceeding 65% margins, and unanimous Safe/Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball drive trader consensus at 86% for Republicans. Fallon's $1 million cash-on-hand dwarfs Pearce's $2,000, reinforcing the structural edge absent late-breaking developments like scandals or national wave shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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