This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Tom Begich holds the lead in trader consensus for the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial race due to his early declaration, statewide name recognition from a prominent political family, and consistent advantages in recent polling averages ahead of the August 18 nonpartisan primary. A fragmented Republican field, including multiple declared candidates such as Bernadette Wilson, Treg Taylor, Nancy Dahlstrom, and Click Bishop, has prevented any single contender from consolidating support. Wilson has gained visibility through debate appearances and her announced lieutenant governor running mate, yet remains behind in head-to-head surveys. The open seat created by term limits on the incumbent, combined with Alaska’s top-four primary system and ranked-choice elements in the general election, continues to shape positioning as candidates focus on fundraising and platform differentiation ahead of the November 3 vote.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Tom Begich holds the lead in trader consensus for the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial race due to his early declaration, statewide name recognition from a prominent political family, and consistent advantages in recent polling averages ahead of the August 18 nonpartisan primary. A fragmented Republican field, including multiple declared candidates such as Bernadette Wilson, Treg Taylor, Nancy Dahlstrom, and Click Bishop, has prevented any single contender from consolidating support. Wilson has gained visibility through debate appearances and her announced lieutenant governor running mate, yet remains behind in head-to-head surveys. The open seat created by term limits on the incumbent, combined with Alaska’s top-four primary system and ranked-choice elements in the general election, continues to shape positioning as candidates focus on fundraising and platform differentiation ahead of the November 3 vote.
A late-stage rally in market support for Tom Begich pushed his price to 38%, reflecting shifting expectations in the gubernatorial race.
Apr 2 2026
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins enters the race
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins surges to 48%38%
The entry of Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins into the gubernatorial race caused an immediate spike in his market price as voters and analysts assessed his candidacy.
Mar 17 2026
Treg Taylor gains traction in gubernatorial race
Treg Taylor surges to 17%15%
Treg Taylor's campaign saw a significant surge in market interest following increased visibility and campaign activity in mid-March.
Feb 4 2026
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins announces run for Alaska governor
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins plunges to 8%40%
Former state legislator Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins declared his candidacy for governor, becoming the 16th candidate and third Democrat in the race. His entry introduced a new dynamic to the Democratic field and affected market perceptions of his chances.
Jan 10 2026
Alaska Young Republicans host state convention with 10 gubernatorial candidates
The Alaska Young Republicans held a state convention featuring 10 of the 12 Republican gubernatorial candidates, providing a platform for candidates like Bernadette Wilson, Treg Taylor, and others to present their positions, influencing market perceptions of their viability.
Jan 10 2026
Bernadette Wilson and Treg Taylor sign Taxpayer Protection Pledge
Bernadette Wilson rises to 22%4%
Bernadette Wilson and Treg Taylor publicly committed to opposing all tax increases by signing the Taxpayer Protection Pledge, signaling fiscal conservatism and appealing to Republican voters, which affected their market support.
Jan 5 2026
Tim Walz drops Minnesota gubernatorial bid
The withdrawal of a high-profile governor from a different state's race signaled broader political shifts, impacting the overall market sentiment for gubernatorial candidates.
Oct 14 2025
Market prices adjust sharply following initial launch
Prices for all candidates dropped significantly from the 50% opening, indicating a rapid market correction as participants assessed the field.
Oct 13 2025
Former Revenue Commissioner Adam Crum faces review over private equity investment
An investigation revealed that former Revenue Commissioner Adam Crum deviated from state law and failed to perform due diligence when investing state savings, impacting his political standing as he launched a gubernatorial bid.
Oct 13 2025
Market opens with high uncertainty for all candidates
The market launched with all candidates priced at 50%, reflecting high initial uncertainty regarding the 2026 gubernatorial race.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Tom Begich holds the lead in trader consensus for the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial race due to his early declaration, statewide name recognition from a prominent political family, and consistent advantages in recent polling averages ahead of the August 18 nonpartisan primary. A fragmented Republican field, including multiple declared candidates such as Bernadette Wilson, Treg Taylor, Nancy Dahlstrom, and Click Bishop, has prevented any single contender from consolidating support. Wilson has gained visibility through debate appearances and her announced lieutenant governor running mate, yet remains behind in head-to-head surveys. The open seat created by term limits on the incumbent, combined with Alaska’s top-four primary system and ranked-choice elements in the general election, continues to shape positioning as candidates focus on fundraising and platform differentiation ahead of the November 3 vote.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Tom Begich holds the lead in trader consensus for the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial race due to his early declaration, statewide name recognition from a prominent political family, and consistent advantages in recent polling averages ahead of the August 18 nonpartisan primary. A fragmented Republican field, including multiple declared candidates such as Bernadette Wilson, Treg Taylor, Nancy Dahlstrom, and Click Bishop, has prevented any single contender from consolidating support. Wilson has gained visibility through debate appearances and her announced lieutenant governor running mate, yet remains behind in head-to-head surveys. The open seat created by term limits on the incumbent, combined with Alaska’s top-four primary system and ranked-choice elements in the general election, continues to shape positioning as candidates focus on fundraising and platform differentiation ahead of the November 3 vote.
A late-stage rally in market support for Tom Begich pushed his price to 38%, reflecting shifting expectations in the gubernatorial race.
Apr 2 2026
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins enters the race
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins surges to 48%38%
The entry of Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins into the gubernatorial race caused an immediate spike in his market price as voters and analysts assessed his candidacy.
Mar 17 2026
Treg Taylor gains traction in gubernatorial race
Treg Taylor surges to 17%15%
Treg Taylor's campaign saw a significant surge in market interest following increased visibility and campaign activity in mid-March.
Feb 4 2026
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins announces run for Alaska governor
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins plunges to 8%40%
Former state legislator Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins declared his candidacy for governor, becoming the 16th candidate and third Democrat in the race. His entry introduced a new dynamic to the Democratic field and affected market perceptions of his chances.
Jan 10 2026
Alaska Young Republicans host state convention with 10 gubernatorial candidates
The Alaska Young Republicans held a state convention featuring 10 of the 12 Republican gubernatorial candidates, providing a platform for candidates like Bernadette Wilson, Treg Taylor, and others to present their positions, influencing market perceptions of their viability.
Jan 10 2026
Bernadette Wilson and Treg Taylor sign Taxpayer Protection Pledge
Bernadette Wilson rises to 22%4%
Bernadette Wilson and Treg Taylor publicly committed to opposing all tax increases by signing the Taxpayer Protection Pledge, signaling fiscal conservatism and appealing to Republican voters, which affected their market support.
Jan 5 2026
Tim Walz drops Minnesota gubernatorial bid
The withdrawal of a high-profile governor from a different state's race signaled broader political shifts, impacting the overall market sentiment for gubernatorial candidates.
Oct 14 2025
Market prices adjust sharply following initial launch
Prices for all candidates dropped significantly from the 50% opening, indicating a rapid market correction as participants assessed the field.
Oct 13 2025
Former Revenue Commissioner Adam Crum faces review over private equity investment
An investigation revealed that former Revenue Commissioner Adam Crum deviated from state law and failed to perform due diligence when investing state savings, impacting his political standing as he launched a gubernatorial bid.
Oct 13 2025
Market opens with high uncertainty for all candidates
The market launched with all candidates priced at 50%, reflecting high initial uncertainty regarding the 2026 gubernatorial race.
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