Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran holds a commanding position in California's 45th Congressional District House race, bolstered by recent redistricting that shifted the Cook Partisan Voting Index to D+3, favoring his party in the Orange County suburbs including Westminster and Garden Grove. Tran's $3 million in receipts and $2.3 million cash on hand as of late 2025 dwarf the fragmented Republican primary field of five challengers—Westminster Mayor Chi Charlie Nguyen, former Cerritos Mayor Chuong Vo, realtor Tom Vo, councilor Amy Phan West, and analyst Mark Leonard—whose top fundraising lags at around $500,000. Filings after the March 6 deadline confirmed no serious Democratic primary opposition, enabling Tran to conserve resources ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Forecasters rate it Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting trader consensus on incumbency and structural edges despite the district's competitive 2024 history, though a consolidated GOP nominee could narrow odds in the November general.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
85%
共和党
14%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$1,560 Vol.
85%
共和党
$3,661 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran holds a commanding position in California's 45th Congressional District House race, bolstered by recent redistricting that shifted the Cook Partisan Voting Index to D+3, favoring his party in the Orange County suburbs including Westminster and Garden Grove. Tran's $3 million in receipts and $2.3 million cash on hand as of late 2025 dwarf the fragmented Republican primary field of five challengers—Westminster Mayor Chi Charlie Nguyen, former Cerritos Mayor Chuong Vo, realtor Tom Vo, councilor Amy Phan West, and analyst Mark Leonard—whose top fundraising lags at around $500,000. Filings after the March 6 deadline confirmed no serious Democratic primary opposition, enabling Tran to conserve resources ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Forecasters rate it Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting trader consensus on incumbency and structural edges despite the district's competitive 2024 history, though a consolidated GOP nominee could narrow odds in the November general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
音量
$5,220終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran holds a commanding position in California's 45th Congressional District House race, bolstered by recent redistricting that shifted the Cook Partisan Voting Index to D+3, favoring his party in the Orange County suburbs including Westminster and Garden Grove. Tran's $3 million in receipts and $2.3 million cash on hand as of late 2025 dwarf the fragmented Republican primary field of five challengers—Westminster Mayor Chi Charlie Nguyen, former Cerritos Mayor Chuong Vo, realtor Tom Vo, councilor Amy Phan West, and analyst Mark Leonard—whose top fundraising lags at around $500,000. Filings after the March 6 deadline confirmed no serious Democratic primary opposition, enabling Tran to conserve resources ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Forecasters rate it Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting trader consensus on incumbency and structural edges despite the district's competitive 2024 history, though a consolidated GOP nominee could narrow odds in the November general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$5,220終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran holds a commanding position in California's 45th Congressional District House race, bolstered by recent redistricting that shifted the Cook Partisan Voting Index to D+3, favoring his party in the Orange County suburbs including Westminster and Garden Grove. Tran's $3 million in receipts and $2.3 million cash on hand as of late 2025 dwarf the fragmented Republican primary field of five challengers—Westminster Mayor Chi Charlie Nguyen, former Cerritos Mayor Chuong Vo, realtor Tom Vo, councilor Amy Phan West, and analyst Mark Leonard—whose top fundraising lags at around $500,000. Filings after the March 6 deadline confirmed no serious Democratic primary opposition, enabling Tran to conserve resources ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Forecasters rate it Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting trader consensus on incumbency and structural edges despite the district's competitive 2024 history, though a consolidated GOP nominee could narrow odds in the November general.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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