Democratic incumbent Derek Tran’s narrow 2024 victory in California’s 45th district, secured by just 653 votes against former Republican Rep. Michelle Steel, has established a structural advantage heading into the 2026 cycle. Redistricting and updated partisan voting indices now rate the Orange County seat as Lean Democratic, with Cook Political Report assigning a D+3 lean. Multiple Republican candidates have filed for the June 2, 2026 top-two primary, yet none has emerged with unified support or substantial fundraising momentum. Trader consensus at 87 percent Democratic reflects these incumbency and demographic factors, while the 10.5 percent Republican share accounts for the potential for a strong general-election challenger or late primary consolidation. No major developments have altered the race in recent weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
87%
共和党
11%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$1,651 Vol.
87%
共和党
$6,226 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Derek Tran’s narrow 2024 victory in California’s 45th district, secured by just 653 votes against former Republican Rep. Michelle Steel, has established a structural advantage heading into the 2026 cycle. Redistricting and updated partisan voting indices now rate the Orange County seat as Lean Democratic, with Cook Political Report assigning a D+3 lean. Multiple Republican candidates have filed for the June 2, 2026 top-two primary, yet none has emerged with unified support or substantial fundraising momentum. Trader consensus at 87 percent Democratic reflects these incumbency and demographic factors, while the 10.5 percent Republican share accounts for the potential for a strong general-election challenger or late primary consolidation. No major developments have altered the race in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
音量
$7,877終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Derek Tran’s narrow 2024 victory in California’s 45th district, secured by just 653 votes against former Republican Rep. Michelle Steel, has established a structural advantage heading into the 2026 cycle. Redistricting and updated partisan voting indices now rate the Orange County seat as Lean Democratic, with Cook Political Report assigning a D+3 lean. Multiple Republican candidates have filed for the June 2, 2026 top-two primary, yet none has emerged with unified support or substantial fundraising momentum. Trader consensus at 87 percent Democratic reflects these incumbency and demographic factors, while the 10.5 percent Republican share accounts for the potential for a strong general-election challenger or late primary consolidation. No major developments have altered the race in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$7,877終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Derek Tran’s narrow 2024 victory in California’s 45th district, secured by just 653 votes against former Republican Rep. Michelle Steel, has established a structural advantage heading into the 2026 cycle. Redistricting and updated partisan voting indices now rate the Orange County seat as Lean Democratic, with Cook Political Report assigning a D+3 lean. Multiple Republican candidates have filed for the June 2, 2026 top-two primary, yet none has emerged with unified support or substantial fundraising momentum. Trader consensus at 87 percent Democratic reflects these incumbency and demographic factors, while the 10.5 percent Republican share accounts for the potential for a strong general-election challenger or late primary consolidation. No major developments have altered the race in recent weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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