Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair with federal funds rate above 2.5% (79.5% implied probability), driven by post-election reports positioning him as Trump's top pick to replace Jerome Powell amid hawkish signals on inflation control. Warsh's past as a Fed governor and advocacy for tighter monetary policy align with persistent economic pressures like sticky inflation and robust job growth, reducing bets on deep rate cuts. Recent Trump transition interviews and media buzz have elevated Warsh over alternatives like Rick Rieder (3.2% combined) or Kevin Hassett (1.5%), with "Other" at 4.5% capturing uncertainty. Upcoming Powell term end in 2026 and policy announcements loom as key catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日各FRB議長の下で予測されるFRB金利
各FRB議長の下で予測されるFRB金利
ケビン・ウォーシュ＆金利>2.5％ 72%
ケビン・ウォーシュ＆金利≤2.5％ 12%
その他 4.5%
リック・リーダー＆金利≤2.5％ 2.1%
$25,957 Vol.
$25,957 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
ケビン・ウォーシュ＆金利>2.5％
78%
ケビン・ウォーシュ＆金利≤2.5％
12%
その他
4%
リック・リーダー＆金利≤2.5％
2%
ケビン・ハセット＆金利2.5％以下
1%
リック・リーダー＆金利>2.5％
1%
ケビン・ハセット＆金利2.5％超
<1%
クリストファー・ウォラー＆金利2.5％以下
<1%
クリストファー・ウォラー＆金利＞2.5％
<1%
ケビン・ウォーシュ＆金利>2.5％ 72%
ケビン・ウォーシュ＆金利≤2.5％ 12%
その他 4.5%
リック・リーダー＆金利≤2.5％ 2.1%
$25,957 Vol.
$25,957 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
ケビン・ウォーシュ＆金利>2.5％
$6,589 Vol.
78%
ケビン・ウォーシュ＆金利≤2.5％
$0 Vol.
12%
その他
$0 Vol.
4%
リック・リーダー＆金利≤2.5％
$0 Vol.
2%
ケビン・ハセット＆金利2.5％以下
$11,722 Vol.
1%
リック・リーダー＆金利>2.5％
$0 Vol.
1%
ケビン・ハセット＆金利2.5％超
$0 Vol.
<1%
クリストファー・ウォラー＆金利2.5％以下
$0 Vol.
<1%
クリストファー・ウォラー＆金利＞2.5％
$7,645 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair with federal funds rate above 2.5% (79.5% implied probability), driven by post-election reports positioning him as Trump's top pick to replace Jerome Powell amid hawkish signals on inflation control. Warsh's past as a Fed governor and advocacy for tighter monetary policy align with persistent economic pressures like sticky inflation and robust job growth, reducing bets on deep rate cuts. Recent Trump transition interviews and media buzz have elevated Warsh over alternatives like Rick Rieder (3.2% combined) or Kevin Hassett (1.5%), with "Other" at 4.5% capturing uncertainty. Upcoming Powell term end in 2026 and policy announcements loom as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
マーケット開始日： Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ET
音量
$25,957終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair with federal funds rate above 2.5% (79.5% implied probability), driven by post-election reports positioning him as Trump's top pick to replace Jerome Powell amid hawkish signals on inflation control. Warsh's past as a Fed governor and advocacy for tighter monetary policy align with persistent economic pressures like sticky inflation and robust job growth, reducing bets on deep rate cuts. Recent Trump transition interviews and media buzz have elevated Warsh over alternatives like Rick Rieder (3.2% combined) or Kevin Hassett (1.5%), with "Other" at 4.5% capturing uncertainty. Upcoming Powell term end in 2026 and policy announcements loom as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
音量
$25,957終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair with federal funds rate above 2.5% (79.5% implied probability), driven by post-election reports positioning him as Trump's top pick to replace Jerome Powell amid hawkish signals on inflation control. Warsh's past as a Fed governor and advocacy for tighter monetary policy align with persistent economic pressures like sticky inflation and robust job growth, reducing bets on deep rate cuts. Recent Trump transition interviews and media buzz have elevated Warsh over alternatives like Rick Rieder (3.2% combined) or Kevin Hassett (1.5%), with "Other" at 4.5% capturing uncertainty. Upcoming Powell term end in 2026 and policy announcements loom as key catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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