Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the <3.0 million TSA checkpoint passengers outcome at 69.5% implied probability for April 4, driven by persistent staffing shortages from the ongoing DHS government shutdown, with national call-out rates exceeding 10% and up to 40% at major hubs like ATL and IAH. Recent throughput data underscores capacity constraints: April 1 screened 2.36 million, March 31 at 2.15 million, and a seven-day average through April 1 of 2.52 million—well below historical spring peaks despite record demand projections of 171 million passengers March-April (+4% year-over-year). The 3.0M-3.2M bin at 40.5% reflects upside risk from Easter weekend travel (April 5 holiday), but operational limits dominate sentiment ahead of tomorrow's data release.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日4月4日のTSAの乗客数は？
4月4日のTSAの乗客数は？
3.0M〜3.2M 41%
320万〜340万 7%
340万〜360万 <1%
360万〜380万 <1%
新規
新規
2026/04/04
300万人未満
73%
3.0M〜3.2M
41%
320万〜340万
7%
340万〜360万
1%
360万〜380万
1%
>380万
1%
3.0M〜3.2M 41%
320万〜340万 7%
340万〜360万 <1%
360万〜380万 <1%
新規
新規
2026/04/04
300万人未満
$282 Vol.
73%
3.0M〜3.2M
$0 Vol.
41%
320万〜340万
$1,055 Vol.
7%
340万〜360万
$1,130 Vol.
1%
360万〜380万
$1,075 Vol.
1%
>380万
$1,053 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 4, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the <3.0 million TSA checkpoint passengers outcome at 69.5% implied probability for April 4, driven by persistent staffing shortages from the ongoing DHS government shutdown, with national call-out rates exceeding 10% and up to 40% at major hubs like ATL and IAH. Recent throughput data underscores capacity constraints: April 1 screened 2.36 million, March 31 at 2.15 million, and a seven-day average through April 1 of 2.52 million—well below historical spring peaks despite record demand projections of 171 million passengers March-April (+4% year-over-year). The 3.0M-3.2M bin at 40.5% reflects upside risk from Easter weekend travel (April 5 holiday), but operational limits dominate sentiment ahead of tomorrow's data release.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 4, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
マーケット開始日： Apr 2, 2026, 4:47 PM ET
音量
$4,596終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 4:47 PM ETThis market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 4, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the <3.0 million TSA checkpoint passengers outcome at 69.5% implied probability for April 4, driven by persistent staffing shortages from the ongoing DHS government shutdown, with national call-out rates exceeding 10% and up to 40% at major hubs like ATL and IAH. Recent throughput data underscores capacity constraints: April 1 screened 2.36 million, March 31 at 2.15 million, and a seven-day average through April 1 of 2.52 million—well below historical spring peaks despite record demand projections of 171 million passengers March-April (+4% year-over-year). The 3.0M-3.2M bin at 40.5% reflects upside risk from Easter weekend travel (April 5 holiday), but operational limits dominate sentiment ahead of tomorrow's data release.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 4, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
音量
$4,596終了日
2026/04/04マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 4:47 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket prices the <3.0 million TSA checkpoint passengers outcome at 69.5% implied probability for April 4, driven by persistent staffing shortages from the ongoing DHS government shutdown, with national call-out rates exceeding 10% and up to 40% at major hubs like ATL and IAH. Recent throughput data underscores capacity constraints: April 1 screened 2.36 million, March 31 at 2.15 million, and a seven-day average through April 1 of 2.52 million—well below historical spring peaks despite record demand projections of 171 million passengers March-April (+4% year-over-year). The 3.0M-3.2M bin at 40.5% reflects upside risk from Easter weekend travel (April 5 holiday), but operational limits dominate sentiment ahead of tomorrow's data release.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問