Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% implied probability to win California's 1st Congressional District House seat in the special nonpartisan primary on June 2, 2026—top two advancing to an August 4 runoff if no majority—following Rep. Doug LaMalfa's (R) death on January 6. State Senate President pro tempore Mike McGuire (D) emerged as frontrunner after announcing February 21, securing the California Democratic Party endorsement on February 23 and superior fundraising amid low-turnout special dynamics favoring organization. Assembly Republican Leader James Gallagher's endorsements from Donald Trump and GOP House members, including Doug LaMalfa's widow, have failed to close the gap in the nominally Republican-leaning district. Potential challenges include Democratic vote-splitting with Audrey Denney or a GOP turnout surge propelling Republicans to the runoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$13,784 Vol.
$13,784 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
92%
共和党
5%
$13,784 Vol.
$13,784 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$13,784 Vol.
92%
共和党
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% implied probability to win California's 1st Congressional District House seat in the special nonpartisan primary on June 2, 2026—top two advancing to an August 4 runoff if no majority—following Rep. Doug LaMalfa's (R) death on January 6. State Senate President pro tempore Mike McGuire (D) emerged as frontrunner after announcing February 21, securing the California Democratic Party endorsement on February 23 and superior fundraising amid low-turnout special dynamics favoring organization. Assembly Republican Leader James Gallagher's endorsements from Donald Trump and GOP House members, including Doug LaMalfa's widow, have failed to close the gap in the nominally Republican-leaning district. Potential challenges include Democratic vote-splitting with Audrey Denney or a GOP turnout surge propelling Republicans to the runoff.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$13,784終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% implied probability to win California's 1st Congressional District House seat in the special nonpartisan primary on June 2, 2026—top two advancing to an August 4 runoff if no majority—following Rep. Doug LaMalfa's (R) death on January 6. State Senate President pro tempore Mike McGuire (D) emerged as frontrunner after announcing February 21, securing the California Democratic Party endorsement on February 23 and superior fundraising amid low-turnout special dynamics favoring organization. Assembly Republican Leader James Gallagher's endorsements from Donald Trump and GOP House members, including Doug LaMalfa's widow, have failed to close the gap in the nominally Republican-leaning district. Potential challenges include Democratic vote-splitting with Audrey Denney or a GOP turnout surge propelling Republicans to the runoff.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$13,784終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% implied probability to win California's 1st Congressional District House seat in the special nonpartisan primary on June 2, 2026—top two advancing to an August 4 runoff if no majority—following Rep. Doug LaMalfa's (R) death on January 6. State Senate President pro tempore Mike McGuire (D) emerged as frontrunner after announcing February 21, securing the California Democratic Party endorsement on February 23 and superior fundraising amid low-turnout special dynamics favoring organization. Assembly Republican Leader James Gallagher's endorsements from Donald Trump and GOP House members, including Doug LaMalfa's widow, have failed to close the gap in the nominally Republican-leaning district. Potential challenges include Democratic vote-splitting with Audrey Denney or a GOP turnout surge propelling Republicans to the runoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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