Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% to win California's 1st Congressional District special election, driven by state Senate leader Mike McGuire's commanding candidacy following Rep. Doug LaMalfa's death in January, which triggered a June 2 nonpartisan primary and potential August 4 runoff under the Republican-leaning pre-redistricting map. McGuire's recent February launch boasts superior fundraising—over $392,000 cash on hand—plus endorsements from Gov. Gavin Newsom, Nancy Pelosi, labor unions, and local Democrats, positioning him as the frontrunner in a top-two contest. GOP Assemblyman James Gallagher's March entry and backing from Donald Trump and LaMalfa's widow have consolidated Republican support, but traders see Democratic organizational strength prevailing in a low-turnout summer vote. Challenges include GOP turnout surge, field consolidation, or McGuire scandal before the April filing deadline and primary.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$13,784 Vol.
$13,784 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
92%
共和党
5%
$13,784 Vol.
$13,784 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$13,784 Vol.
92%
共和党
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% to win California's 1st Congressional District special election, driven by state Senate leader Mike McGuire's commanding candidacy following Rep. Doug LaMalfa's death in January, which triggered a June 2 nonpartisan primary and potential August 4 runoff under the Republican-leaning pre-redistricting map. McGuire's recent February launch boasts superior fundraising—over $392,000 cash on hand—plus endorsements from Gov. Gavin Newsom, Nancy Pelosi, labor unions, and local Democrats, positioning him as the frontrunner in a top-two contest. GOP Assemblyman James Gallagher's March entry and backing from Donald Trump and LaMalfa's widow have consolidated Republican support, but traders see Democratic organizational strength prevailing in a low-turnout summer vote. Challenges include GOP turnout surge, field consolidation, or McGuire scandal before the April filing deadline and primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$13,784終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% to win California's 1st Congressional District special election, driven by state Senate leader Mike McGuire's commanding candidacy following Rep. Doug LaMalfa's death in January, which triggered a June 2 nonpartisan primary and potential August 4 runoff under the Republican-leaning pre-redistricting map. McGuire's recent February launch boasts superior fundraising—over $392,000 cash on hand—plus endorsements from Gov. Gavin Newsom, Nancy Pelosi, labor unions, and local Democrats, positioning him as the frontrunner in a top-two contest. GOP Assemblyman James Gallagher's March entry and backing from Donald Trump and LaMalfa's widow have consolidated Republican support, but traders see Democratic organizational strength prevailing in a low-turnout summer vote. Challenges include GOP turnout surge, field consolidation, or McGuire scandal before the April filing deadline and primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$13,784終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% to win California's 1st Congressional District special election, driven by state Senate leader Mike McGuire's commanding candidacy following Rep. Doug LaMalfa's death in January, which triggered a June 2 nonpartisan primary and potential August 4 runoff under the Republican-leaning pre-redistricting map. McGuire's recent February launch boasts superior fundraising—over $392,000 cash on hand—plus endorsements from Gov. Gavin Newsom, Nancy Pelosi, labor unions, and local Democrats, positioning him as the frontrunner in a top-two contest. GOP Assemblyman James Gallagher's March entry and backing from Donald Trump and LaMalfa's widow have consolidated Republican support, but traders see Democratic organizational strength prevailing in a low-turnout summer vote. Challenges include GOP turnout surge, field consolidation, or McGuire scandal before the April filing deadline and primary.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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