Incumbent Rep. Mike Rogers' early January 2026 filing to seek re-election has solidified trader consensus at 93.5% for a Republican House win in Alabama's 3rd Congressional District, a safely red seat with strong incumbency advantages and ties to military interests via Rogers' role as Armed Services Committee chair. The district's partisan lean favors Republicans, and no competitive Democratic challengers have emerged, with the GOP primary scheduled for May 19 ahead of the November general election. While odds reflect structural dominance, potential shifts could arise from a primary upset, major scandal, high Democratic turnout in a national wave, or late-breaking legal developments affecting eligibility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
94%
民主党
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$2,800 Vol.
94%
民主党
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mike Rogers' early January 2026 filing to seek re-election has solidified trader consensus at 93.5% for a Republican House win in Alabama's 3rd Congressional District, a safely red seat with strong incumbency advantages and ties to military interests via Rogers' role as Armed Services Committee chair. The district's partisan lean favors Republicans, and no competitive Democratic challengers have emerged, with the GOP primary scheduled for May 19 ahead of the November general election. While odds reflect structural dominance, potential shifts could arise from a primary upset, major scandal, high Democratic turnout in a national wave, or late-breaking legal developments affecting eligibility.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$2,800終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mike Rogers' early January 2026 filing to seek re-election has solidified trader consensus at 93.5% for a Republican House win in Alabama's 3rd Congressional District, a safely red seat with strong incumbency advantages and ties to military interests via Rogers' role as Armed Services Committee chair. The district's partisan lean favors Republicans, and no competitive Democratic challengers have emerged, with the GOP primary scheduled for May 19 ahead of the November general election. While odds reflect structural dominance, potential shifts could arise from a primary upset, major scandal, high Democratic turnout in a national wave, or late-breaking legal developments affecting eligibility.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$2,800終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Mike Rogers' early January 2026 filing to seek re-election has solidified trader consensus at 93.5% for a Republican House win in Alabama's 3rd Congressional District, a safely red seat with strong incumbency advantages and ties to military interests via Rogers' role as Armed Services Committee chair. The district's partisan lean favors Republicans, and no competitive Democratic challengers have emerged, with the GOP primary scheduled for May 19 ahead of the November general election. While odds reflect structural dominance, potential shifts could arise from a primary upset, major scandal, high Democratic turnout in a national wave, or late-breaking legal developments affecting eligibility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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