Name: Will Trump release the sanctioned oil tanker by December 31?
Start: 2025-12-10T20:15:48.623319Z
End: 2025-12-31T00:00:00Z

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On December 10, 2025, US forces intercepted and seized a sanctioned oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. More information can be found here: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-administration-seizes-oil-tanker-off-venezuela-coast-us-officials-say-2025-12-10/.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States relinquishes its control over the seized oil tanker by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify, the United States must formally release the vessel from U.S. custody or operational control; a release will not count if the vessel has sunk or sustained fatal damage that renders it irreparable, though a vessel that remains repairable will qualify.

An announcement of intent to release the vessel will not suffice; U.S. control must actually be relinquished within this market’s timeframe to qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump release the sanctioned oil tanker by December 31?

U.S. government forces seized a sanctioned oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela on December 10. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-administration-seizes-oil-tanker-off-venezuela-coast-us-officials-say-2025-12-10/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces seize another ship that is transporting, or is intended to transport, oil to or from Venezuela by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

U.S. government forces refers to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors.

Seizes refers to U.S. forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a U.S.-controlled port.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.

An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.

Trump takes Panama Canal in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela between November 4, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. 

Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).

Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

1. There is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify as a military engagement. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count as a military engagement; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify as a military engagement.

Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify as a military engagement regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify as a military engagement (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).

Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB.

2. President Nicolás Maduro is NOT removed from power within the first 30 days after such an engagement ends, with no subsequent engagement occurring.

President Nicolás Maduro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Venezuela within this market's timeframe.

A military engagement which occurs will be considered to have ended once no qualifying incidents occur for 24 consecutive hours following the initial engagement. The relevant thirty day period will begin on the calendar day following this 24 hours. If multiple military engagements occur, the 30-day period will be counted from the first day following the ending of the most recent engagement.

If Maduro is removed from power prior to a qualifying military engagement occurring this market will immediately resolve to "No".

Note: If a qualifying military engagement occurs by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until either Maduro is removed from power or a thirty day period has passed with no subsequent military engagements occurring. 

The primary source of resolution for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is taken into custody by the U.S. government at any point before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Maduro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Maduro, regardless of location or duration.

Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Maduro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Maduro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.

Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Maduro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.

Maduro in U.S. custody by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump for any charges by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Maduro by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, CIA, or any law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation intended to capture, detain, or take custody of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying operation’s objective must be to capture, imprison, detain, or otherwise take custody of Nicolas Maduro, as confirmed by either the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Direct U.S. personnel participation in an operation which succeeds in capturing Nicolas Maduro will also count, regardless of intention.

U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

U.S. operation to capture Maduro in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Maduro out
- US x Venezuela military engagement

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Maduro+Parlay.pdf

Venezuela Parlay

On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States, currently pending before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:

1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part

2. U.S. importers receive refunds for at least some of the tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.

If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.


Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuela commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Guyana between January 29 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Venezuela, Guyana, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Venezuela invade Guyana in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.

An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) of the next military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela. 

A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).

Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuela's president, Nicolás Maduro, is removed from power for any length of time between December 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President Nicolás Maduro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Venezuela within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Maduro out by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'December 31' market 'US x Venezuela military engagement by...?' (https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by?) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during the 4-hour period between 2:00 PM and 5:59 PM ET on December 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'December 31' market 'US x Venezuela military engagement by...?', which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/odds-of-us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by-dec-31-on-friday-over-20 or through the “Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a specific four-hour window. This will display the 4-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com

Odds of US x Venezuela military engagement by Dec 31 on Friday over 20%?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolas Maduro visits the U.S. by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "visit" is defined as Maduro physically entering the terrestrial territory of the United States in a voluntary capacity. Whether or not Maduro enters US airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

Entering the United States requires physically entering sovereign U.S. territory, including all U.S. states and territories (e.g., Puerto Rico, Guam, U.S. Virgin Islands). Areas under U.S. control but not under U.S. sovereignty (e.g., Guantánamo Bay Naval Base) do not count. U.S. airspace, U.S. embassies/consulates abroad, and international zones do not constitute U.S. sovereign territory.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Maduro visits the U.S. by December 31?

On April 2, Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports set to take effect on April 5, 2025 at 12:01 a.m. EDT (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-increase-our-competitive-edge-protect-our-sovereignty-and-strengthen-our-national-and-economic-security/)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action which pauses, delays, or removes the 10% general tariff by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

Actions which remove the general 10% tariff will qualify even if there are item specific exceptions for which the tariff still applies. However, lowering the general tariff below 10% without removing it will not qualify.

Any action which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the removal goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, the US government, or US armed forces announces that US armed forces conducted a new strike against any watercraft designated as a narco terrorist target between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any announcement made within this market's timeframe of a qualifying, previously unannounced strike will count, regardless of whether the strike occurred within this market's timeframe.

A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces at a qualifying watercraft that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.

A boarding or the use of small arms fire will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source will be official information from the US government or armed forces; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between September 6, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. 

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US forces in Venezuela by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues a presidential veto of any bill by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official congressional records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump veto a bill in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between December 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.

An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.

Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.

The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally acquires any part of Canadian territory by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

Acquisition must be through official government action, such as annexation, treaty, or legislation.

The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. government however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.



Will the U.S. acquire Canadian territory in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration officially announces that they will be sending US troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying announcement must be part of a formal agreement between the United States and another country or international organization or otherwise indicative of a formalized policy.

Announcement which are statements of intent, contingent, or otherwise are not indicative of a formalized policy will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump agrees to send U.S. peacekeeping force to Ukraine?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.

An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark , however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.

Will Trump release the sanctioned oil tanker by December 31?

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Will Trump release the sanctioned oil tanker by December 31?

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Will Trump release the sanctioned oil tanker by December 31?

Order Book

Market Context

Will Trump release the sanctioned oil tanker by December 31?

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