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Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?

ASKED BY

Nate Silver image

Nate Silver

$9,870,739 Vol.

Nov 5, 2024

Source: Polymarket.com

Rules

Additional context

Updated Nov 22

As per the rules, “This market will resolve based on the percentage of third party candidates out of the total number of votes in the 2024 US Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org” including write-ins, as counted and determined by uselectionatlas.

Per the previous rules clarification, “this market will resolve based on the percentage of third party candidates out of the total number of votes… as counted and determined by uselectionatlas.” This market refers specifically to the vote totals according to Popular Vote column on https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ based on uselectionatlas’s original methodology, which includes data published by individual county election agencies. Other newly released vote total methodologies such as "2024 SW" will not be considered. Further note that this market resolves based on the vote totals in the Popular Vote column - namely the sum of the third party votes will be divided by total number of votes to determine the percentage to resolve this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if third party candidates combined receive 2% or more of the total popular vote (including write-ins) in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Third-party candidates refer to any candidates not running as a Democrat or Republican, including candidates running as independents.

This market will resolve based on the percentage of third party candidates out of the total number of votes in the 2024 US Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered.

If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published total vote numbers based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Volume

$9,870,739

End Date

Nov 5, 2024

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Outcome: Yes