Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Name: Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Start: 2025-08-05T17:33:33.863763Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z

$169,974,380 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Kevin Warsh 42%

Kevin Hassett 41%

Christopher Waller 9.1%

Rick Rieder 3.6%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Kevin Warsh
$4,567,722 Vol.
42%

Kevin Hassett
$8,745,701 Vol.
41%

Christopher Waller
$3,688,194 Vol.
9%

Rick Rieder
$2,898,737 Vol.
4%

Scott Bessent
$4,038,448 Vol.
2%

Michelle Bowman
$3,459,911 Vol.
2%

Judy Shelton
$4,236,367 Vol.
1%

Stephen Miran
$3,329,054 Vol.
<1%

No one nominated before 2027
$2,154,936 Vol.
<1%

Bill Pulte
$20,753,913 Vol.
<1%

Howard Lutnick
$1,647,665 Vol.
<1%

David Malpass
$2,773,041 Vol.
<1%

Jerome Powell
$4,038,872 Vol.
<1%

David Zervos
$2,342,307 Vol.
<1%

Arthur Laffer
$9,478,154 Vol.
<1%

Larry Kudlow
$9,860,165 Vol.
<1%

Ron Paul
$4,634,729 Vol.
<1%

James Bullard
$1,835,542 Vol.
<1%

Marc Sumerlin
$2,592,905 Vol.
<1%

Lorie K. Logan
$1,959,330 Vol.
<1%

Philip Jefferson
$4,549,889 Vol.
<1%

Janet Yellen
$20,570,840 Vol.
<1%

Larry Lindsey
$5,274,042 Vol.
<1%

Barron Trump
$18,131,336 Vol.
<1%

Donald Trump
$22,407,576 Vol.
<1%

Rules

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Created At: Aug 5, 2025, 5:21 PM UTC

Volume

$169,974,380

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Created At

Aug 5, 2025, 5:21 PM UTC

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Beware of external links.

$169,974,380 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh 42%

Kevin Hassett 41%

Christopher Waller 9.1%

Rick Rieder 3.6%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Kevin Warsh

$4,567,722 Vol.

42%

Kevin Hassett

$8,745,701 Vol.

41%

Christopher Waller

$3,688,194 Vol.

Rick Rieder

$2,898,737 Vol.

Scott Bessent

$4,038,448 Vol.

Michelle Bowman

$3,459,911 Vol.

Judy Shelton

$4,236,367 Vol.

Stephen Miran

$3,329,054 Vol.

<1%

No one nominated before 2027

$2,154,936 Vol.

<1%

Bill Pulte

$20,753,913 Vol.

<1%

Howard Lutnick

$1,647,665 Vol.

<1%

David Malpass

$2,773,041 Vol.

<1%

Jerome Powell

$4,038,872 Vol.

<1%

David Zervos

$2,342,307 Vol.

<1%

Arthur Laffer

$9,478,154 Vol.

<1%

Larry Kudlow

$9,860,165 Vol.

<1%

Ron Paul

$4,634,729 Vol.

<1%

James Bullard

$1,835,542 Vol.

<1%

Marc Sumerlin

$2,592,905 Vol.

<1%

Lorie K. Logan

$1,959,330 Vol.

<1%

Philip Jefferson

$4,549,889 Vol.

<1%

Janet Yellen

$20,570,840 Vol.

<1%

Larry Lindsey

$5,274,042 Vol.

<1%

Barron Trump

$18,131,336 Vol.

<1%

Donald Trump

$22,407,576 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume

$169,974,380

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Created At

Aug 5, 2025, 5:21 PM UTC

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 19, 2026?

22%

Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by June 30, 2026?

99%

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?

12%

Beware of external links.

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh
$4,567,722 Vol.
42%

Kevin Hassett
$8,745,701 Vol.
41%

Christopher Waller
$3,688,194 Vol.
9%

Rick Rieder
$2,898,737 Vol.
4%

Scott Bessent
$4,038,448 Vol.
2%

Michelle Bowman
$3,459,911 Vol.
2%

Judy Shelton
$4,236,367 Vol.
1%

Stephen Miran
$3,329,054 Vol.
<1%

No one nominated before 2027
$2,154,936 Vol.
<1%

Bill Pulte
$20,753,913 Vol.
<1%

Howard Lutnick
$1,647,665 Vol.
<1%

David Malpass
$2,773,041 Vol.
<1%

Jerome Powell
$4,038,872 Vol.
<1%

David Zervos
$2,342,307 Vol.
<1%

Arthur Laffer
$9,478,154 Vol.
<1%

Larry Kudlow
$9,860,165 Vol.
<1%

Ron Paul
$4,634,729 Vol.
<1%

James Bullard
$1,835,542 Vol.
<1%

Marc Sumerlin
$2,592,905 Vol.
<1%

Lorie K. Logan
$1,959,330 Vol.
<1%

Philip Jefferson
$4,549,889 Vol.
<1%

Janet Yellen
$20,570,840 Vol.
<1%

Larry Lindsey
$5,274,042 Vol.
<1%

Barron Trump
$18,131,336 Vol.
<1%

Donald Trump
$22,407,576 Vol.
<1%

Market Context