Market icon
Politics·United Nations

Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?

Market icon
Politics·United Nations

Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?

Rebeca Grynspan 40.3%

Rafael Grossi 37%

Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés 29.0%

Jacinda Ardern 27.7%

Polymarket

$365 Vol.

Rebeca Grynspan 40.3%

Rafael Grossi 37%

Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés 29.0%

Jacinda Ardern 27.7%

Polymarket

$365 Vol.

Rebeca Grynspan

$0 Vol.

40%

Rafael Grossi

$0 Vol.

37%

Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés

$365 Vol.

29%

Jacinda Ardern

$0 Vol.

28%

Michelle Bachelet

$0 Vol.

22%

Kristalina Georgieva

$0 Vol.

24%

David Choquehuanca

$0 Vol.

2%

Vuk Jeremić

$0 Vol.

2%

Colombe Cahen-Salvador

$0 Vol.

2%

Achim Steiner

$0 Vol.

1%

Alicia Bárcena

$0 Vol.

7%

Bruno Donat

$0 Vol.

30%

Mia Mottley

$0 Vol.

38%

Amina Mohammed

$0 Vol.

42%

A United Nations Secretary-General selection is expected to be held in 2026 to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations. This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count. If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects a fluid UN Secretary-General selection process for the post starting January 1, 2027, with Rebeca Grynspan and Amina Mohammed nearly tied at around 40% amid recent nominations and withdrawals preventing separation. Costa Rica's backing of Grynspan (UNCTAD head) and Argentina's for Rafael Grossi (IAEA director) bolster Latin American contenders, while Chile's March 25 pullback from Michelle Bachelet and Maldives' withdrawal of Virginia Gamba highlight shifting alliances. Amina Mohammed's deputy role and Mia Mottley's climate diplomacy appeal broadly, but P5 veto power and regional rotations (favoring Africa or Latin America) sustain uncertainty. Upcoming General Assembly hearings, Security Council straw polls, and bloc endorsements could consolidate support for a frontrunner.

Trader consensus reflects a fluid UN Secretary-General selection process for the post starting January 1, 2027, with Rebeca Grynspan and Amina Mohammed nearly tied at around 40% amid recent nominations and withdrawals preventing separation. Costa Rica's backing of Grynspan (UNCTAD head) and Argentina's for Rafael Grossi (IAEA director) bolster Latin American contenders, while Chile's March 25 pullback from Michelle Bachelet and Maldives' withdrawal of Virginia Gamba highlight shifting alliances. Amina Mohammed's deputy role and Mia Mottley's climate diplomacy appeal broadly, but P5 veto power and regional rotations (favoring Africa or Latin America) sustain uncertainty. Upcoming General Assembly hearings, Security Council straw polls, and bloc endorsements could consolidate support for a frontrunner.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
A United Nations Secretary-General selection is expected to be held in 2026 to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations. This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count. If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects a fluid UN Secretary-General selection process for the post starting January 1, 2027, with Rebeca Grynspan and Amina Mohammed nearly tied at around 40% amid recent nominations and withdrawals preventing separation. Costa Rica's backing of Grynspan (UNCTAD head) and Argentina's for Rafael Grossi (IAEA director) bolster Latin American contenders, while Chile's March 25 pullback from Michelle Bachelet and Maldives' withdrawal of Virginia Gamba highlight shifting alliances. Amina Mohammed's deputy role and Mia Mottley's climate diplomacy appeal broadly, but P5 veto power and regional rotations (favoring Africa or Latin America) sustain uncertainty. Upcoming General Assembly hearings, Security Council straw polls, and bloc endorsements could consolidate support for a frontrunner.

Trader consensus reflects a fluid UN Secretary-General selection process for the post starting January 1, 2027, with Rebeca Grynspan and Amina Mohammed nearly tied at around 40% amid recent nominations and withdrawals preventing separation. Costa Rica's backing of Grynspan (UNCTAD head) and Argentina's for Rafael Grossi (IAEA director) bolster Latin American contenders, while Chile's March 25 pullback from Michelle Bachelet and Maldives' withdrawal of Virginia Gamba highlight shifting alliances. Amina Mohammed's deputy role and Mia Mottley's climate diplomacy appeal broadly, but P5 veto power and regional rotations (favoring Africa or Latin America) sustain uncertainty. Upcoming General Assembly hearings, Security Council straw polls, and bloc endorsements could consolidate support for a frontrunner.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Market icon

Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?

37%
Market icon

Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?

59%
Market icon

Will Luis Enrique be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?

21%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Amina Mohammed" at 42%, followed by "Rebeca Grynspan" at 40%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 12, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?" is "Amina Mohammed" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Rebeca Grynspan" at 40%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.