Amid the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran launched February 28, 2026, Israel conducted airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities including the Yazd uranium plant as recently as March 28, prompting Tehran's vows of escalated retaliation while combined forces target defense industries and command nodes. UK, France, and Germany signaled early March readiness for defensive actions to degrade Iran's missile and drone capabilities, as Saudi Arabia and UAE prepare potential strikes if energy infrastructure faces threats. US advances a 15-point diplomatic proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement, rejected by Tehran amid ongoing exchanges; trader focus centers on coalition expansion risks, possible ground operations, and de-escalation signals before April 30 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWhich countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
$450,792 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Saudi Arabia
30%
UAE
23%
Bahrain
8%
Kuwait
7%
Jordan
6%
Qatar
6%
France
5%
Any E.U. Country
5%
Turkey
4%
Oman
4%
UK
3%
Germany
3%
Canada
1%
$450,792 Vol.
Saudi Arabia
$65,078 Vol.
30%
UAE
$36,516 Vol.
23%
Bahrain
$724 Vol.
8%
Kuwait
$1,185 Vol.
7%
Jordan
$915 Vol.
6%
Qatar
$426 Vol.
6%
France
$148,440 Vol.
5%
Any E.U. Country
$5,048 Vol.
5%
Turkey
$14,950 Vol.
4%
Oman
$319 Vol.
4%
UK
$103,133 Vol.
3%
Germany
$75,558 Vol.
3%
Canada
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran launched February 28, 2026, Israel conducted airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities including the Yazd uranium plant as recently as March 28, prompting Tehran's vows of escalated retaliation while combined forces target defense industries and command nodes. UK, France, and Germany signaled early March readiness for defensive actions to degrade Iran's missile and drone capabilities, as Saudi Arabia and UAE prepare potential strikes if energy infrastructure faces threats. US advances a 15-point diplomatic proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement, rejected by Tehran amid ongoing exchanges; trader focus centers on coalition expansion risks, possible ground operations, and de-escalation signals before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
Volume
$450,792End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran launched February 28, 2026, Israel conducted airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities including the Yazd uranium plant as recently as March 28, prompting Tehran's vows of escalated retaliation while combined forces target defense industries and command nodes. UK, France, and Germany signaled early March readiness for defensive actions to degrade Iran's missile and drone capabilities, as Saudi Arabia and UAE prepare potential strikes if energy infrastructure faces threats. US advances a 15-point diplomatic proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement, rejected by Tehran amid ongoing exchanges; trader focus centers on coalition expansion risks, possible ground operations, and de-escalation signals before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$450,792End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran launched February 28, 2026, Israel conducted airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities including the Yazd uranium plant as recently as March 28, prompting Tehran's vows of escalated retaliation while combined forces target defense industries and command nodes. UK, France, and Germany signaled early March readiness for defensive actions to degrade Iran's missile and drone capabilities, as Saudi Arabia and UAE prepare potential strikes if energy infrastructure faces threats. US advances a 15-point diplomatic proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement, rejected by Tehran amid ongoing exchanges; trader focus centers on coalition expansion risks, possible ground operations, and de-escalation signals before April 30 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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