The United States and Israel have conducted extensive airstrikes against Iranian military, nuclear, and defense industrial targets since launching a joint campaign on February 28, 2026, now entering its fifth week with operations described as nearly complete by the IDF on March 29 amid Iran's missile retaliation on Israeli industrial sites. President Trump postponed strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure to April 6 while Iran reviews a U.S. 15-point peace proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement, though Tehran rejects talks under fire. Saudi Arabia has supplied bases and urged escalation, as UK, France, and Germany prepare potential defensive actions against Iranian missile sites; Gulf states consider direct involvement if infrastructure attacks persist, shaping trader assessments of coalition expansion by April 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWhich countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
$452,620 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Saudi Arabia
30%
UAE
23%
Bahrain
8%
Kuwait
7%
Jordan
6%
Qatar
6%
France
5%
Any E.U. Country
5%
Turkey
4%
Oman
4%
UK
3%
Germany
3%
Canada
1%
$452,620 Vol.
Saudi Arabia
$65,407 Vol.
30%
UAE
$36,516 Vol.
23%
Bahrain
$724 Vol.
8%
Kuwait
$1,185 Vol.
7%
Jordan
$915 Vol.
6%
Qatar
$426 Vol.
6%
France
$148,440 Vol.
5%
Any E.U. Country
$5,048 Vol.
5%
Turkey
$14,950 Vol.
4%
Oman
$319 Vol.
4%
UK
$103,133 Vol.
3%
Germany
$75,558 Vol.
3%
Canada
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel have conducted extensive airstrikes against Iranian military, nuclear, and defense industrial targets since launching a joint campaign on February 28, 2026, now entering its fifth week with operations described as nearly complete by the IDF on March 29 amid Iran's missile retaliation on Israeli industrial sites. President Trump postponed strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure to April 6 while Iran reviews a U.S. 15-point peace proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement, though Tehran rejects talks under fire. Saudi Arabia has supplied bases and urged escalation, as UK, France, and Germany prepare potential defensive actions against Iranian missile sites; Gulf states consider direct involvement if infrastructure attacks persist, shaping trader assessments of coalition expansion by April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
Volume
$452,620End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel have conducted extensive airstrikes against Iranian military, nuclear, and defense industrial targets since launching a joint campaign on February 28, 2026, now entering its fifth week with operations described as nearly complete by the IDF on March 29 amid Iran's missile retaliation on Israeli industrial sites. President Trump postponed strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure to April 6 while Iran reviews a U.S. 15-point peace proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement, though Tehran rejects talks under fire. Saudi Arabia has supplied bases and urged escalation, as UK, France, and Germany prepare potential defensive actions against Iranian missile sites; Gulf states consider direct involvement if infrastructure attacks persist, shaping trader assessments of coalition expansion by April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$452,620End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States and Israel have conducted extensive airstrikes against Iranian military, nuclear, and defense industrial targets since launching a joint campaign on February 28, 2026, now entering its fifth week with operations described as nearly complete by the IDF on March 29 amid Iran's missile retaliation on Israeli industrial sites. President Trump postponed strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure to April 6 while Iran reviews a U.S. 15-point peace proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement, though Tehran rejects talks under fire. Saudi Arabia has supplied bases and urged escalation, as UK, France, and Germany prepare potential defensive actions against Iranian missile sites; Gulf states consider direct involvement if infrastructure attacks persist, shaping trader assessments of coalition expansion by April 30.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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