Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to Anthropic holding the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent dominance in key benchmarks like coding (SWE-bench 80.9%), reasoning (GPQA 91.9%), and long-context tasks, where it edges out rivals as of late March updates. Anthropic's aggressive shipping—voice mode, persistent memory imports from ChatGPT, interactive diagrams, and app store surge doubling signups—bolsters its lead, with API revenue exploding to $2.5B annualized run rate. Google trails at 6% on Gemini 3.1 Pro's narrow 1505 Elo edge (vs. Claude's 1503), while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags at 3.8% amid competitive stumbles. No confirmed April releases threaten the status quo, though surprise drops from xAI or others could shift dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAnthropic 86%
Google 6%
OpenAI 3.8%
DeepSeek 1.8%
$2,405,192 Vol.
$2,405,192 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
86%
6%
OpenAI
4%
DeepSeek
2%
xAI
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meituan
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 86%
Google 6%
OpenAI 3.8%
DeepSeek 1.8%
$2,405,192 Vol.
$2,405,192 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
$47,158 Vol.
86%
$39,214 Vol.
6%
OpenAI
$486,676 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$1,476,991 Vol.
2%
xAI
$71,086 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$27,882 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$26,693 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$30,079 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$62,583 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$32,900 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$32,870 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$29,245 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$41,963 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to Anthropic holding the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent dominance in key benchmarks like coding (SWE-bench 80.9%), reasoning (GPQA 91.9%), and long-context tasks, where it edges out rivals as of late March updates. Anthropic's aggressive shipping—voice mode, persistent memory imports from ChatGPT, interactive diagrams, and app store surge doubling signups—bolsters its lead, with API revenue exploding to $2.5B annualized run rate. Google trails at 6% on Gemini 3.1 Pro's narrow 1505 Elo edge (vs. Claude's 1503), while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags at 3.8% amid competitive stumbles. No confirmed April releases threaten the status quo, though surprise drops from xAI or others could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$2,405,192End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to Anthropic holding the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent dominance in key benchmarks like coding (SWE-bench 80.9%), reasoning (GPQA 91.9%), and long-context tasks, where it edges out rivals as of late March updates. Anthropic's aggressive shipping—voice mode, persistent memory imports from ChatGPT, interactive diagrams, and app store surge doubling signups—bolsters its lead, with API revenue exploding to $2.5B annualized run rate. Google trails at 6% on Gemini 3.1 Pro's narrow 1505 Elo edge (vs. Claude's 1503), while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags at 3.8% amid competitive stumbles. No confirmed April releases threaten the status quo, though surprise drops from xAI or others could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$2,405,192End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86% implied probability to Anthropic holding the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's recent dominance in key benchmarks like coding (SWE-bench 80.9%), reasoning (GPQA 91.9%), and long-context tasks, where it edges out rivals as of late March updates. Anthropic's aggressive shipping—voice mode, persistent memory imports from ChatGPT, interactive diagrams, and app store surge doubling signups—bolsters its lead, with API revenue exploding to $2.5B annualized run rate. Google trails at 6% on Gemini 3.1 Pro's narrow 1505 Elo edge (vs. Claude's 1503), while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags at 3.8% amid competitive stumbles. No confirmed April releases threaten the status quo, though surprise drops from xAI or others could shift dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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