Name: Which company has best AI model on June 30?
Start: 2024-12-31T20:51:43.447192Z
End: 2025-06-30T12:00:00Z

Use the internal polymarket geolocation service.

poly_geo

Improved notification preferences and types.

notifications_v2

funkit_deposit

funkit_withdraw

authenticated_book_ws

Improved in-game view for sports markets.

mobile_sports_overlay_v2

async_order_submission

Enable updates from the sports websocket.

sports_websocket

This is a negrisk market group over which will be the top AI model on June 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by Google has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Google

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by OpenAI has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

OpenAI

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by xAI has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by Anthropic has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Anthropic

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by Meta has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

DeepSeek

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by Alibaba has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Alibaba

Best AI Company

Which company has best AI model on June 30?

DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup, has disrupted the global tech industry with its R1 model, showcasing capabilities rivaling OpenAI and Google, while facing scrutiny for allegedly using OpenAI's models for training. Despite its innovative breakthroughs and low-cost training, DeepSeek's chatbot scored a mere 17% accuracy in a NewsGuard audit, raising concerns about reliability.

DeepSeek Shakes AI Market

Groq CEO Jonathan Ross says that by distilling or scraping the OpenAI model, DeepSeek was able to rapidly advance its capabilities, while OpenAI was effectively subsiding DeepSeek's training because it loses money on API tokens https://t.co/is3Gve2shu

🇨🇳CHINESE AI FLOPS: DEEPSEEK SCORES 17% ACCURACY IN NEWS TEST

DeepSeek’s chatbot just got crushed in a NewsGuard audit, ranking 10th out of 11 and failing 83% of the time. 

It repeated false claims 30% of the time and gave vague or useless answers in more than half of cases. https://t.co/5K25hPJmTY https://t.co/ZdQ0jMCQIa

For the last two years, the leading lab (usually OpenAI) has released capabilities that were matched by other labs 9-12 months later, only to leapfrog them again soon after.

With RL in 2025, this cycle will speed up so capabilities are matched and leapfrogged every 2-3 months.

China’s DeepSeek faces questions over claims, after causing shockwaves with an AI model with capabilities rivalling the creations of Google and OpenAI https://t.co/afpTpsYokx https://t.co/L9dn0yBUgW

If OpenAI open-sourced O3, the high-quality data generated could help companies like Anthropic, Google, and DeepSeek achieve AGI. Sadly, OpenAI's closed approach prevents this potential boost to reasoning capabilities that could benefit humanity.

My main takeaway from all the DeepSeek discourse is that it’s too early for most takeaways. 

That said, I think DeepSeek compels us to think harder about AI adoption, not just model capabilities. Some thoughts below (and yes, the cost comparison below is hyperbolic) 🧵[1/14] https://t.co/1YHVlgfuaa

The uncomfortable reality for OpenAI and Anthropic is that they bear the staggering costs of training state-of-the-art models, while others distill their capabilities at a fraction of the price.

DeepSeek’s breakthrough is reminiscent of Alpaca—but for reasoning itself. Through

Most of the engineers of DeepSeek are very young with 0-2 years of experience who built the model with the same capabilities as OpenAI.

Most companies don't hire freshers, this is the wake up call for those companies.

Why don't companies here freshers?

Just came across the latest buzz about DeepSeek R1, and I’m genuinely impressed! Nvidia recently hailed it as “an excellent AI advancement,” highlighting its groundbreaking capabilities that surpass top models from OpenAI. With a training cost of under $6 million, it's https://t.co/8yMqxDfQvI

DeepSeek launched Janus-Pro, a new open-source image generation model that outperforms DALL-E 3 and Stable Diffusion.

This comes, days after releasing R1, a model that has similar capabilities to OpenAI o1.

It's no longer clear that OpenAI is leading the AI race https://t.co/IgKC01jGqu

#DeepSeekR1, a little-known Chinese startup, has sent shockwaves through the global tech sector with the release of an artificial intelligence China

 (AI) model whose capabilities rival the creations of Google and OpenAI. https://t.co/6tWxfi1uzD

📢 Say it louder for those in the back! 📢

Chinese AI startup DeepSeek’s chatbot flopped in a NewsGuard audit, ranking 10th out of 11 against American 🇺🇸🌞🙏 rivals like OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google Gemini. 🚨 It got the facts right just 17% of the time, spread false claims 30%,

🤖📉 DeepSeek AI Fails 83% of News Accuracy Tests, Ranking 10th Among Rivals

Tickers of interest: $NVDA $MSFT $GOOGL

Full Story → https://t.co/Z9VG2ZNVtB https://t.co/iA8ZsSzsKr

DeepSeek's AI chatbot scored only 17% accuracy in a NewsGuard audit, ranking 10th among competitors like ChatGPT. It repeated false claims 30% of the time and gave vague answers 53% of the time, raising concerns about its reliability.

Read more 👇 https://t.co/cb2GC0vWbj

DeepSeek, a little-known Chinese startup, has sent shockwaves through the global tech sector with the release of an artificial intelligence (AI) model whose capabilities rival the creations of Google and OpenAI. https://t.co/KJAz3VFCcU

_OpenAI Alleges DeepSeek Used Its Models for AI Training_

The current capabilities of DeepSeek's "model" aren't all that relevant: What's strategically important about what DeepSeek has done involves the technology it used to build its "model," because it requires FAR LESS time

Chinese-based AI app DeepSeek overtook ChatGPT as the highest-ranking app under the free category on the U.S. Apple App Store https://t.co/INKgwDlQJP

Everyone is fascinated by DeepSeek, especially their R1 reasoning model, whose performance is on par with OpenAI's O1 reasoning model.

In their report, they unveil a new paradigm, suggesting that reasoning capabilities—such as self-verification, reflection, and long-chain

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has announced a $500 billion AI investment initiative, partnering with OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank on the 'Stargate Project' to revolutionize AI and IoT infrastructure. This ambitious project, expected to create over 100,000 jobs, also sees OpenAI launching advanced models and agents like Operator, while competitors like DeepSeek-R1 challenge with superior performance in specific benchmarks.

Trump Unveils AI Initiative

#JASMY's partner, SoftBank, is joining forces with OpenAI and Oracle on the $500 billion "Stargate Project," a groundbreaking initiative set to transform AI and IoT infrastructure, as announced by Trump.
JASMY, a leader in decentralized blockchain and IoT technology,... https://t.co/n8ZKukcW52

BREAKING: Operator from OpenAI, a step towards AGI, is now HERE!

AND it can buy eggs?!

Agentic capabilities [THREAD]

1. It allows for humans to stay in the loop and take control when needed https://t.co/A06z1901HY

HOT TAKE

This update effectively renders all current versions of crypto AI obsolete. I am pointing fingers at #Virtual, #AI16Z, $ARC etc. OpenAI is leading the way in horizontal expansion with capabilities like task agents (operators) and browser controls (why $TANK is still https://t.co/7Fk6osR7uK

DeepSeek R1 vs. OpenAI o1: The Battle for Affordable, Smarter AI
Which AI model wins in speed, cost, and intelligence? A comprehensive comparison.

https://t.co/uK4tg7t6Mr https://t.co/MUWszB0dQs

OpenAI says Operator is powered by Computer-Using Agent, or CUA, which combines GPT-4o's vision capabilities with "reasoning" abilities of more advanced models (@strwbilly / MIT Technology Review)

https://t.co/X5VyZ64kam

https://t.co/l902vAdM1n
https://t.co/ZOzeer2dpR

Curious about AI model performance? 

Check out this BREAKING comparison between Grok 3, OpenAI's o1 Pro and R1! 

Grok 3 nails the task, while o1 Pro and DeepSeek R1 falter. Which one would you trust for precision tasks?

https://t.co/rRbsrzjnrL

OpenAI Product Chief: "Took 18 months to go from GPT3 to GPT4..we've gone from o1 to o3 in 3 months.. and we're already training (o4).. it looks like another big jump in capabilities. The models are getting really smart really quickly." Take off or nah?
https://t.co/AlUGOz6djZ

STARGATE &amp; THE MILITARY: How @OpenAI’s $500B ‘Stargate Project’ could aid Pentagon’s own AI efforts.

“We really don’t have … the in-house capabilities to answer all the questions,” the Pentagon’s deputy director for advanced computing, Roy Campbell, told Breaking Defense..../1 https://t.co/KLZUgnrI6Y

DeepSeek-R1 is a fantastic AI model for data analysis.

You can have the model analyse up to 50 docs or images at the same time for FREE 🔥

In comparison, Claude is limited to about 20, and ChatGPT can only do 3 in the free plan, so DeepSeek has a huge advantage in this area. https://t.co/csgFjXRQlH

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has unveiled a $500 billion AI investment initiative in collaboration with OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank. 
The project is expected to create over 100,000 jobs and enhance AI capabilities, particularly in digital health services. To bypass https://t.co/w93Ki9JGKg

DeepSeek's latest AI model, DeepSeek-R1, claims to outperform OpenAI's o1 on benchmarks like AIME and MATH, showcasing advancements in reasoning capabilities. #AIResearch 

https://t.co/Yl5WNDDqHf

The timing of DeepSeek releasing r1 and OpenAI releasing o1 is really small

o1 was tested in September 2024, released in Dec 2024 and r1 was released Jan 2025. Only a 4 month gap in capabilities. That's honestly so weird to me.

Google has unveiled Gemini 2.5 Pro, a powerful AI model with advanced reasoning capabilities, while OpenAI introduced enhanced image generation features for GPT-4o, captivating public interest. Meanwhile, DeepSeek released an updated V3 model, intensifying competition among AI giants.

AI Models Launch Rapidly

Microsoft is enhancing its 365 Copilot with a new AI-powered "deep research" tool, joining the trend of advanced reasoning AI models for more thoughtful problem-solving and self-fact-checking, similar to innovations in ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini, and xAI’s Grok.

Google launches Gemini 2.5 AI model as ChatGPT continues to lead the market with a 43% share, outperforming competitors like DeepSeek. Google prioritizes reasoning and performance in this new tool. $GOOGL

Chinese AI startup DeepSeek quietly released an update to its V3 large language model on Tuesday evening, significantly enhancing its reasoning capabilities and further escalating competition with U.S. rival OpenAI.

OpenAI image breakthrough 🖼️, Gemini 2.5 🤖, 4-day work week 💼

TLDR 2025-03-26

📱Big Tech &amp; Startups

Gemini 2.5 is here, and it is an absolute beast 
Google has introduced an experimental version of Gemini 2.5 Pro, which marks a sizable advancement in AI capabilities. The

We're only half way through Wednesday and already this week we've gotten...

- Google Gemini 2.5 with enhanced thinking capabilities
- OpenAI's Advanced Image Generation
- Microsoft's Researcher and Analyst AI Agents
- Reve Image 1.0 beating out all other image gen models
-

One of the reasons I had updated my prediction probability for AGI was that I was an early tester of OpenAI’s 4o image generation model before this date. After experiencing the immense capabilities of this AI image model, it became clear to me that we were closer than ever to AGI https://t.co/xxyc4xN52M

#AI Market Updates (March 26, 2025)  
1. #DeepSeek has released version V3-0324, significantly improving inference performance and tool capabilities.  
2. #OpenAI has introduced image generation features for GPT-4o, now accessible to all ChatGPT users.  
3. China’s AI market https://t.co/Tmch8a91II

OpenAI's GPT-5 Is Coming: Here's What We Know So Far 

#OpenAI's upcoming #GPT-5 promises to revolutionize #artificialintelligence by unifying advanced reasoning capabilities with powerful language processing, potentially eliminating the need for separate #AI models in business

Google launches their most intelligent AI model- Gemini 2.5

Gemini 2.5 thinking models are capable of reasoning through their thoughts before responding, resulting in enhanced performance and improved accuracy.

#Google #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #GoogleGemini #News #Updates

Learn how the increased verbosity of #DeepSeek v3 (0324) can enhance complex problem-solving and why this trade-off might be worth the higher cost in certain applications.

Read our comparison to see which model is right for your👉: https://t.co/00DDS47aAk

#AI #LLM #TechAnalysis https://t.co/juF47s06oj

Google has launched Gemini 2.5 Pro, its most powerful model yet, featuring unified reasoning capabilities

It surpasses OpenAI o3-mini in almost every benchmark, which includes:

- Humanity Last Exam: 18.8%
- AIME 2025 (Mathematics): 86.7%
- LiveCodeBench v5: 70.4%
- SWE-bench https://t.co/gGzLS0xLXI

It is no coincidence that 2 of the most viral, shared consumer AI moments of 2025 are @doji_com and @OpenAI 4o image generation (especially the Ghibli edits). They are delivering pure moments of magic 

Continuing to innovate on model capabilities and surpassing benchmarks is https://t.co/LTrsGMYnjZ

Competition fuels innovation!
@GeminiApp launched its image + text generation tools just hours after @OpenAI unveiled its improved image model with enhanced text capabilities.
Let’s cheer for healthy rivalry in AI development! 🖼️✨

#Gemini #OpenAI #AI https://t.co/1SobUsmWQ1

🚨 Google launched Gemini 2.5 Pro on March 26, 2025, a highly intelligent AI model competing with ChatGPT and DeepSeek. It ranks second in coding performance, offers a 1M-token context window, and is free via Google AI Studio. ChatGPT leads the market, while DeepSeek grows

🤖🚀 Google's Gemini 2.5 launch proves technical excellence isn't enough in today's AI race. ❗️Despite superior capabilities, it's being overshadowed by OpenAI's viral image outputs that capture public imagination.

🤖💥 The attention economy has fundamentally changed AI https://t.co/svca2KOT9v

TODAY'S AI NEWS: Google Unveils Gemini 2.5 Pro, Claiming Top Spot in AI Reasoning Amid Safety Debates.

plus OpenAI Expands GPT-4o Capabilities: Native Images &amp; Creative Sparks Emerge.

Here's everything you need to know: https://t.co/PBTfzyqEU9

Google's Gemini 2.5 Pro is gaining significant traction, with 350 million monthly users and top rankings in coding, math, and style control benchmarks, closing the gap with competitors like ChatGPT. Additionally, Google is expanding Gemini's reach through partnerships, such as with Nvidia for on-prem environments, and offering free access to U.S. college students through 2026.

Gemini 2.5 Dominates AI

ngl, gemini 2.5 pro is google best model to date

still can't believe google offers the best reasoning model with a 1 million token context

no surprise — they made the TPU, took their time, cooked slowly, and finally overtook the market.

Breaking: new @OpenAI models shake up the Arena leaderboard🔥

Highlights:
- o3 #2 overall, ties Gemini-2.5-Pro at #1 in Style Control, Math, Coding, and Hard Prompts
- o4-mini breaks into top 10 and claims #1 in Math, surpassing o1 (!)
- GPT-4.1 ranks top-5 in Hard Prompts, https://t.co/KsTubnhOYF

NEW gemini numbers from DOJ vs Google trial

Gemini has 350m MAUs (!) 
Still behind ChatGPT at 600m, but gap shrinking faster than most expected

Gemini 2.5 boom?

Why is Gemini 2.5 (Pro and Flash) the only models willing to output more than 200 lines of code? 

I asked multiple OpenAI models to create the rubik's cube simulation and they tried to do it with less than 200 lines of code. 

It just doesn't work...

Gemini 2.5 Pro beats o3 in coding benchmarks

Google may seem like the underdog in the AI race, but don’t bet against them. Gemini 2.5 is dominating Humanity’s Last Exam (17.1%), pricing, and model output tokens. https://t.co/mIPqj3bMt6

妈的 Gemini 2.5 Pro 代码潜力无限啊

针对性优化了一下我的提示词，看看这动画和这个排版

是不是有苹果的味道了，还有这个数据可视化 https://t.co/GZnMBoOQqs

U.S. college students, your free Gemini Advanced access through spring finals 2026 awaits → https://t.co/LVVB6Pe8fY (terms apply) https://t.co/fcljCwAMNv

We just shipped Tier 3 limits in the Gemini API (2x-6x higher limits), available now for self serve upgrade if you have spent &gt;=$1K with Google Cloud.

You can upgrade in AI Studio (on the API key page) to Tier 3 and start scaling with Gemini right now! https://t.co/mpRLb82vtJ

Google Gemini has 350M monthly users, reveals court hearing https://t.co/O1T7vOK0t3

Gemini has 350 million monthly users, Google reveals in court hearing https://t.co/IcJSfTaivp by @nexusben

Google $GOOG Distributed Cloud and Nvidia $NVDA are partnering to bring Gemini to on-prem environments starting in Q3, utilizing DGX B200 and HGX B200 systems available from Dell $DELL.

xAI is reportedly on the verge of releasing Grok 3.5, a highly anticipated AI model praised for advanced reasoning and contextual understanding, targeting high-IQ users and specialized domains like finance and healthcare. Leaked information and public announcements suggest the launch could happen imminently, with integrations already noted in platforms like Azure AI Foundry.

Grok 3.5 Launch Imminent

Pretty good analysis by @Grok and this is just version 3
 https://t.co/CJTb4HkRak

grok 3.5 this week and it’s the first model to display signs of genuine human intelligence.

GROK 3.5 might be released this week... https://t.co/n5WQaiMCTl

Tired of switching tabs between AI platforms just to get the job done?

With your .Web3 AI agent domain, you can access all the top AI models in one place.

Grok, ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, and your own Ollama model — all ready to work for you.

Get your AI agent domain today → https://t.co/qyrQoMYsAt

xAI’s @Grok 3 Beta is now integrated!

The model extends our growing suite of LLMs, now totaling over 300, all optimized for development workflows. 

Grok 3 Beta brings improved contextual understanding and reasoning capabilities, particularly useful for game generation. https://t.co/nJET8qLZiJ

🔥 Grok 3.5 🔥

&gt; Will be available for premium plus and super grok

Guidelines 
&gt; Truthful 
&gt; no filler 

https://t.co/uG0QM7gcjE

Credit - @blankspeaker https://t.co/HKptF8Hm4j

Grok 3.5 isn't for everyone. Its target audience is high IQ people.

Think of people who are rocket scientists or those who likes to reason from first principles aka truth

When released, if you end up not liking Grok 3.5, you are not the target audience.

GROK 3 BLASTS OFF ON AZURE—READY TO ROCK!

Azure AI Foundry is primed to unleash its AI magic with Grok 3!

Here’s the deal:

•⁠  ⁠Brainiac Boost - 60% AIME 2025, 79.1% GPQA.

•⁠  ⁠Domain Boss - Rules finance, healthcare.

•⁠  ⁠Mega Grip - 131K tokens at once.

Test it https://t.co/Mr9fuiqHES

Leak suggests #xAI is getting ready to ship #Grok 3.5

xAI, founded by #ElonMusk, is preparing to launch Grok 3.5, the company's next state-of-the-art #AI model.

#TechNews #Tech #technology #techchoice #socialmedia #socialmedianetwork 

https://t.co/JBI5Pk6XDr

report that XAI will release Grok 3.5 soon https://t.co/hs4WrKnPFO

🚨 BREAKING: Leaked Code Reveals Grok 3.5 Is Finally Ready to Drop – And It's Going to Change Everything

The AI world just got its biggest plot twist of 2025, and Elon Musk's xAI is about to shake up the entire industry

Hold onto your keyboards, tech enthusiasts – because the https://t.co/hOqyhxRVBD

Grok 3.5 could ship any day now. https://t.co/BIhahyGeSM

ChatGPT o3 got this puzzle right. Every other LLM I tried (o4-mini, Grok 3, Claude 4 Opus, Gemini 2.5 Pro) got it wrong. o3 took 5 min 30 seconds to puzzle it out. https://t.co/fdAoNYh4FG

Google Veo 3
Midjourney 7.0
Grok 3.5
ChapGPT 4.5

Productive AI is getting really intense in what it can do at this point.

The next 5 years are becoming very difficult to imagine…

＼🔎「Microsoft Build 2025」の簡単な振り返り📝／
🤖 GitHub #Copilot コーディング エージェントを発表
🛠️ Copilot Chat が #VSCode でオープンソース化
🧠 Azure AI Foundry に Grok 3、Flux Pro 1.1、マルチエージェント ツールが追加
🌐 あらゆるサイトを AI アプリ化できる NLWeb を発表 https://t.co/nXD70eqsA4

ranking llm
1. gemini 2.5 (all around)
2. claude sonnet 4.0
3. grok
4. chatgpt o4 (washed model)
5. deepseek (udh lama ga pake)

こうして並べてみると、2025年激動すぎてやばい

2025年1月20日: DeepSeek R1
2025年2月17日: Grok-3
2025年2月24日: Claude 3.7 Sonnet
2025年2月27日: GPT-4.5
2025年3月25日: Gemini 2.5 Pro
2025年4月14日: GPT-4.1
2025年4月16日: o3, o4-mini
2025年5月23日: Claude Opus/Sonnet 4 https://t.co/FZk96ZrhYd

This is a negrisk market group over which will be the top AI model on December 31, 2024, 12:00 PM ET.

Top AI model on December 31?

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Which company has best AI model end of March?

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on February 28, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. 

If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Which company has best AI model end of February?

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Which company has best AI model end of April?

qqThis is a negrisk market group over which will be the top AI model on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET.

Which company has best AI model end of 2025?

This is a negrisk market group over which will be the top AI model on Januar 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET.

Top AI model on January 31?

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Which company has best AI model end of May?

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Which company has best AI model end of July?

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Which company has best AI model end of August?

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Which company has best AI model end of September?

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Which company has best AI model end of October?

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Which company has best AI model end of November?

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Which company has best AI model end of June?

This market will resolve to the company which owns the model that has the top LiveBench “coding average” score, as based off the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. 

If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

This market will resolve to the company which owns the model that has the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. 

If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Will Google have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?

This market will resolve according to the listed entity which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1500+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If no company's model reaches 1500 Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None by June 30".

If the first model to reach a 1500+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed modeI ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.


Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins IMO gold medal
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark
- AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred,  this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches an Arena Score of 1500+ by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the “Arena Score” section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/. If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dan Clancy is no longer serving as CEO of Twitch for any length of time from the date of this market's inception, December 29, 2024 through December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Dan Clancy's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Twitch and/or Dan Clancy, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO in 2025?

OpenAI Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar recently suggested that OpenAI would be supportive of a government backstop for its investments in AI infrastructure including chips and data centers. Friar and Open AI Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman later backtracked on that statement. You can read more about that here: https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/06/tech/openai-backtracks-government-support-chip-investments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI or any financial lender or intermediary involved in providing debt financing to OpenAI receives a U.S. federal government backstop for any debt-transaction undertaken primarily for the benefit of OpenAI’s investments in AI infrastructure by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A backstop is defined as any explicit or legally binding loan guarantee, insurance, or equivalent financial instrument through which the U.S. federal government assumes or commits to assume partial or full repayment risk on OpenAI debt.

Tax credits, depreciation benefits, or grants not tied to a specific debt transaction will not qualify. 

The debt transaction which receives a government backstop must be primarily aimed at the development, building, or manufacturing of AI infrastructure. 

The primary source of resolution will be information from Open AI and the United States Federal Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple publicly announces a partnership with either OpenAI or Anthropic to use their AI models (such as ChatGPT or Claude) for enhancing or powering Siri on Apple devices by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The partnership must directly address Siri or voice assistant integration. General AI partnerships unrelated to Siri or non-specific mentions will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Apple Siri partnership with OpenAI/Anthropic by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Mistral AI will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Apple (Apple inc.) by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Mistral AI will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple or Mistral AI, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple acquire Mistral by November 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that xAI will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Tesla (Tesla inc.) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by xAI will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or xAI, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI achieves a public valuation of $1 trillion USD or more, or raises a private funding round that values the company at $1 trillion or more between June 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. 

The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the combined weight of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google (Alphabet Class A and C), Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia) in the S&P 500 index, calculated using the official S&P 500 index weighting formula, falls below 25% on any trading day (using market close prices) by the last day of trading in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be daily closes prices applied to the weighting formula for the S&P 500. 

Magnificent 7 shrinks below 25% of S&P 500 in 2025?

Recent posts on X indicated that Meek Mill is looking for investors for an app. You can see more about that here: https://x.com/MeekMill/status/1962925141496598797

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meek Mill launches an app advertised as making use of Artificial Intelligence by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only an AI app which is confirmed to have been launched by or in affiliation with Meek Mill, either through posts from official social media channels, or otherwise confirmed by public statements will qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Meek Mill releases AI app in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Grok has a native macOS desktop application publicly available for download
- OpenAI publicly releases a standalone web browser
- Apple releases a new AirTag product
- Google's Gemini 3.0 model is made available to the general public
- Grokipedia is made available to the general public

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

Qualifying releases during this market's timeframe will count, regardless of any subsequent reversal, rollback, or withdrawal of access.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Tech.pdf 

Tech Release Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device.

Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.

Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Wicked: For Good' (2025) as the film with the highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if GPT-5 achieves a score of 70% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Which company has best AI model on June 30?

Google
$906,676 Vol.
Yes

OpenAI
$603,448 Vol.
No

xAI
$773,958 Vol.
No

Anthropic
$554,352 Vol.
No

Meta
$531,416 Vol.
No

DeepSeek
$403,616 Vol.
No

Alibaba
$378,794 Vol.
No

Market Context

Which company has best AI model on June 30?

Rules

Which company has best AI model on June 30?

Market Context

Which company has best AI model on June 30?

About

Related

Which company has best AI model on June 30?

Google$906,676 Vol.Yescircle check

OpenAI$603,448 Vol.Nocircle xmark

xAI$773,958 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Anthropic$554,352 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Meta$531,416 Vol.Nocircle xmark

DeepSeek$403,616 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Alibaba$378,794 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

Which company has best AI model on June 30?

Rules

Which company has best AI model on June 30?

Market Context

Which company has best AI model on June 30?

About

Related

Google
$906,676 Vol.
Yes

OpenAI
$603,448 Vol.
No

xAI
$773,958 Vol.
No

Anthropic
$554,352 Vol.
No

Meta
$531,416 Vol.
No

DeepSeek
$403,616 Vol.
No

Alibaba
$378,794 Vol.
No