Polymarket's trader consensus reflects a closely contested race between 3.5% (26%) and 3.75% (24.1%) implied probabilities for the federal funds rate at end-2026, mirroring the March 18 FOMC dot plot's median projection of 3.4% from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. February's softening labor market—nonfarm payrolls down 92,000 and unemployment rising to 4.4%—supports expectations for one or two 25-basis-point cuts, but persistent core CPI at 2.6% year-over-year, coupled with oil price spikes from recent geopolitical tensions, has curbed aggressive easing bets, pushing futures toward a steadier path around 3.6%. Swing factors hinge on the April 10 CPI report and April 29-30 FOMC meeting, where inflation momentum will test the Fed's balanced-risk stance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated3.5% 26%
3.75% 23.6%
3.25% 15%
4.0% 11.5%
$5,972,668 Vol.
$5,972,668 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
≤1.0%
2%
1.25
1%
1.5%
1%
1.75%
<1%
2.0%
1%
2.25%
1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
6%
3.0%
4%
3.25%
15%
3.5%
26%
3.75%
24%
4.0%
11%
4.25%
4%
≥ 4.5%
9%
3.5% 26%
3.75% 23.6%
3.25% 15%
4.0% 11.5%
$5,972,668 Vol.
$5,972,668 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
≤1.0%
$192,078 Vol.
2%
1.25
$99,522 Vol.
1%
1.5%
$108,524 Vol.
1%
1.75%
$97,441 Vol.
<1%
2.0%
$117,317 Vol.
1%
2.25%
$60,241 Vol.
1%
2.5%
$122,021 Vol.
1%
2.75%
$23,513 Vol.
6%
3.0%
$430,929 Vol.
4%
3.25%
$38,188 Vol.
15%
3.5%
$56,701 Vol.
26%
3.75%
$491,532 Vol.
24%
4.0%
$1,342,999 Vol.
11%
4.25%
$403,563 Vol.
4%
≥ 4.5%
$2,388,096 Vol.
9%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket's trader consensus reflects a closely contested race between 3.5% (26%) and 3.75% (24.1%) implied probabilities for the federal funds rate at end-2026, mirroring the March 18 FOMC dot plot's median projection of 3.4% from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. February's softening labor market—nonfarm payrolls down 92,000 and unemployment rising to 4.4%—supports expectations for one or two 25-basis-point cuts, but persistent core CPI at 2.6% year-over-year, coupled with oil price spikes from recent geopolitical tensions, has curbed aggressive easing bets, pushing futures toward a steadier path around 3.6%. Swing factors hinge on the April 10 CPI report and April 29-30 FOMC meeting, where inflation momentum will test the Fed's balanced-risk stance.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Market Opened: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Volume
$5,972,668End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket's trader consensus reflects a closely contested race between 3.5% (26%) and 3.75% (24.1%) implied probabilities for the federal funds rate at end-2026, mirroring the March 18 FOMC dot plot's median projection of 3.4% from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. February's softening labor market—nonfarm payrolls down 92,000 and unemployment rising to 4.4%—supports expectations for one or two 25-basis-point cuts, but persistent core CPI at 2.6% year-over-year, coupled with oil price spikes from recent geopolitical tensions, has curbed aggressive easing bets, pushing futures toward a steadier path around 3.6%. Swing factors hinge on the April 10 CPI report and April 29-30 FOMC meeting, where inflation momentum will test the Fed's balanced-risk stance.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volume
$5,972,668End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket's trader consensus reflects a closely contested race between 3.5% (26%) and 3.75% (24.1%) implied probabilities for the federal funds rate at end-2026, mirroring the March 18 FOMC dot plot's median projection of 3.4% from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. February's softening labor market—nonfarm payrolls down 92,000 and unemployment rising to 4.4%—supports expectations for one or two 25-basis-point cuts, but persistent core CPI at 2.6% year-over-year, coupled with oil price spikes from recent geopolitical tensions, has curbed aggressive easing bets, pushing futures toward a steadier path around 3.6%. Swing factors hinge on the April 10 CPI report and April 29-30 FOMC meeting, where inflation momentum will test the Fed's balanced-risk stance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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