What day will GPT-5 be released…?
$2,849,586 Vol.
August 7 100.0%
August 5 <1%
August 6 <1%
August 8 <1%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
RESULT
August 5
$25,790 Vol.
No
August 5
$25,790 Vol.
No
August 6
$196,001 Vol.
No
August 6
$196,001 Vol.
No
August 7
$1,657,167 Vol.
Yes
August 7
$1,657,167 Vol.
Yes
August 8
$195,026 Vol.
No
August 8
$195,026 Vol.
No
August 9
$126,682 Vol.
No
August 9
$126,682 Vol.
No
August 10
$106,430 Vol.
No
August 10
$106,430 Vol.
No
August 11
$122,649 Vol.
No
August 11
$122,649 Vol.
No
August 12
$103,695 Vol.
No
August 12
$103,695 Vol.
No
August 13
$75,210 Vol.
No
August 13
$75,210 Vol.
No
August 14
$106,778 Vol.
No
August 14
$106,778 Vol.
No
August 15+
$134,157 Vol.
No
August 15+
$134,157 Vol.
No
Rules
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) OpenAI's GPT-5 model is made available to the general public.
To qualify, GPT-5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5 (e.g. ChatGPT-5o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, GPT-5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5 (e.g. ChatGPT-5o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Aug 5, 2025, 3:43 AM
Volume
$2,849,586End Date
Aug 15, 2025Created At
Aug 5, 2025, 3:43 AMResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
$2,849,586 Vol.
What day will GPT-5 be released…?
August 7 100.0%
August 5 <1%
August 6 <1%
August 8 <1%
August 5
$25,790 Vol.
No
August 6
$196,001 Vol.
No
August 7
$1,657,167 Vol.
Yes
August 8
$195,026 Vol.
No
August 9
$126,682 Vol.
No
August 10
$106,430 Vol.
No
August 11
$122,649 Vol.
No
August 12
$103,695 Vol.
No
August 13
$75,210 Vol.
No
August 14
$106,778 Vol.
No
August 15+
$134,157 Vol.
No
About
Volume
$2,849,586End Date
Aug 15, 2025Created At
Aug 5, 2025, 3:43 AMResolver
0x2F5e3684c...



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