Market icon

What day will GPT-5 be released…?

$2,849,586 Vol.

August 7 100.0%

August 5 <1%

August 6 <1%

August 8 <1%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

RESULT

Rules

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) OpenAI's GPT-5 model is made available to the general public.

To qualify, GPT-5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

GPT-5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5 (e.g. ChatGPT-5o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,849,586
End Date
Aug 15, 2025
Created At
Aug 5, 2025, 3:43 AM

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

shield

Beware of external links.

$2,849,586 Vol.

Market icon

What day will GPT-5 be released…?

August 7 100.0%

August 5 <1%

August 6 <1%

August 8 <1%

August 5

$25,790 Vol.

No

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August 6

$196,001 Vol.

No

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August 7

$1,657,167 Vol.

Yes

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August 8

$195,026 Vol.

No

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August 9

$126,682 Vol.

No

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August 10

$106,430 Vol.

No

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August 11

$122,649 Vol.

No

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August 12

$103,695 Vol.

No

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August 13

$75,210 Vol.

No

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August 14

$106,778 Vol.

No

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August 15+

$134,157 Vol.

No

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About

Volume
$2,849,586
End Date
Aug 15, 2025
Created At
Aug 5, 2025, 3:43 AM