Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

Market icon

U.S. forces in Gaza before July?

$250,055 Vol.

<1% chance

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza at any point between February 4, 2025, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.

US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.

High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$250,055
End Date
Jun 30, 2025
Created At
Feb 5, 2025, 12:39 AM UTC

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

shield

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

$250,055 Vol.

Market icon

U.S. forces in Gaza before July?

<1% chance

About

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza at any point between February 4, 2025, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.

US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.

High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$250,055
End Date
Jun 30, 2025
Created At
Feb 5, 2025, 12:39 AM UTC

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

shield

Beware of external links.