Amid the 2026 Iran war, launched February 28 with over 7,800 US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear sites, missiles, and naval assets, recent escalations include two US military planes crashing inside Iran yesterday, prompting special forces ground insertions for pilot rescues—the first confirmed US boots on Iranian soil. Pentagon preparations for limited ground operations, such as raids on Kharg Island and coastal facilities, coincide with deployments of Marines, the 82nd Airborne, and over 50,000 troops to the Middle East. President Trump claims core objectives near completion despite depleting targets, while Iran threatens retaliation via missiles and Strait of Hormuz closure; trader consensus reflects uncertainty over full-scale invasion amid ongoing search for a missing airman and potential diplomatic off-ramps.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by..?
$117,807,890 Vol.
Mar 3, 2026
March 31
<1%
April 30
83%
December 31
89%
$117,807,890 Vol.
March 31
$73,302,320 Vol.
<1%
April 30
$31,599,930 Vol.
83%
December 31
$10,840,271 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid the 2026 Iran war, launched February 28 with over 7,800 US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear sites, missiles, and naval assets, recent escalations include two US military planes crashing inside Iran yesterday, prompting special forces ground insertions for pilot rescues—the first confirmed US boots on Iranian soil. Pentagon preparations for limited ground operations, such as raids on Kharg Island and coastal facilities, coincide with deployments of Marines, the 82nd Airborne, and over 50,000 troops to the Middle East. President Trump claims core objectives near completion despite depleting targets, while Iran threatens retaliation via missiles and Strait of Hormuz closure; trader consensus reflects uncertainty over full-scale invasion amid ongoing search for a missing airman and potential diplomatic off-ramps.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
Volume
$117,807,890Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid the 2026 Iran war, launched February 28 with over 7,800 US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear sites, missiles, and naval assets, recent escalations include two US military planes crashing inside Iran yesterday, prompting special forces ground insertions for pilot rescues—the first confirmed US boots on Iranian soil. Pentagon preparations for limited ground operations, such as raids on Kharg Island and coastal facilities, coincide with deployments of Marines, the 82nd Airborne, and over 50,000 troops to the Middle East. President Trump claims core objectives near completion despite depleting targets, while Iran threatens retaliation via missiles and Strait of Hormuz closure; trader consensus reflects uncertainty over full-scale invasion amid ongoing search for a missing airman and potential diplomatic off-ramps.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$117,807,890Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Amid the 2026 Iran war, launched February 28 with over 7,800 US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear sites, missiles, and naval assets, recent escalations include two US military planes crashing inside Iran yesterday, prompting special forces ground insertions for pilot rescues—the first confirmed US boots on Iranian soil. Pentagon preparations for limited ground operations, such as raids on Kharg Island and coastal facilities, coincide with deployments of Marines, the 82nd Airborne, and over 50,000 troops to the Middle East. President Trump claims core objectives near completion despite depleting targets, while Iran threatens retaliation via missiles and Strait of Hormuz closure; trader consensus reflects uncertainty over full-scale invasion amid ongoing search for a missing airman and potential diplomatic off-ramps.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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