Henry Cuellar, the longtime Democratic incumbent, holds a commanding position in the Texas 28th congressional district race due to his established voter base, consistent polling leads, and the district's underlying partisan leanings. Recent surveys, including an August 2026 Texas Southern University poll, show Cuellar ahead by double digits among likely voters, with forecasters rating the seat Lean or Tilt Democratic. Tano Tijerina, the Republican challenger and Webb County judge, benefits from President Trump's repeated endorsements and attacks on Cuellar over his post-pardon party affiliation, alongside GOP fundraising and messaging on border issues. However, Cuellar maintains a substantial cash advantage and has overcome prior legal challenges, keeping the race within the incumbent's favor ahead of early voting later this month.