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Crypto·Palmer Lucky

Palmer Luckey Erebor Bank chartered in 2025?

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Crypto·Palmer Lucky

Palmer Luckey Erebor Bank chartered in 2025?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$13,877 Vol.

>99% chance
Polymarket

$13,877 Vol.

On July 2, it was reported that a group of tech billionaires led by Anduril co-founder Palmer Luckey are launching a new crypto-focused U.S. bank (see: https://www.reuters.com/business/tech-billionaires-led-by-palmer-luckey-launch-new-bank-rival-svb-ft-reports-2025-07-02/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if, a national bank charter (conditional or unconditional) is granted by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) or a relevant state banking authority (e.g. Texas Department of Banking, New York State Department of Financial Services, etc) to a legal entity publicly recognized as the Erebor bank project backed by Palmer Luckey, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A name other than “Erebor” or a change in Palmer Luckey’s involvement will still qualify, as long as credible sources clearly identify the entity as the same project originally known as the Erebor initiative. The resolution source will be official announcements from a relevant banking authority and Erebor, as well as a consensus of credible reporting.

On July 2, it was reported that a group of tech billionaires led by Anduril co-founder Palmer Luckey are launching a new crypto-focused U.S. bank (see: https://www.reuters.com/business/tech-billionaires-led-by-palmer-luckey-launch-new-bank-rival-svb-ft-reports-2025-07-02/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, a national bank charter (conditional or unconditional) is granted by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) or a relevant state banking authority (e.g. Texas Department of Banking, New York State Department of Financial Services, etc) to a legal entity publicly recognized as the Erebor bank project backed by Palmer Luckey, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A name other than “Erebor” or a change in Palmer Luckey’s involvement will still qualify, as long as credible sources clearly identify the entity as the same project originally known as the Erebor initiative.

The resolution source will be official announcements from a relevant banking authority and Erebor, as well as a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$13,877
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2025, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...
On July 2, it was reported that a group of tech billionaires led by Anduril co-founder Palmer Luckey are launching a new crypto-focused U.S. bank (see: https://www.reuters.com/business/tech-billionaires-led-by-palmer-luckey-launch-new-bank-rival-svb-ft-reports-2025-07-02/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if, a national bank charter (conditional or unconditional) is granted by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) or a relevant state banking authority (e.g. Texas Department of Banking, New York State Department of Financial Services, etc) to a legal entity publicly recognized as the Erebor bank project backed by Palmer Luckey, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A name other than “Erebor” or a change in Palmer Luckey’s involvement will still qualify, as long as credible sources clearly identify the entity as the same project originally known as the Erebor initiative. The resolution source will be official announcements from a relevant banking authority and Erebor, as well as a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

On July 2, it was reported that a group of tech billionaires led by Anduril co-founder Palmer Luckey are launching a new crypto-focused U.S. bank (see: https://www.reuters.com/business/tech-billionaires-led-by-palmer-luckey-launch-new-bank-rival-svb-ft-reports-2025-07-02/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if, a national bank charter (conditional or unconditional) is granted by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) or a relevant state banking authority (e.g. Texas Department of Banking, New York State Department of Financial Services, etc) to a legal entity publicly recognized as the Erebor bank project backed by Palmer Luckey, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A name other than “Erebor” or a change in Palmer Luckey’s involvement will still qualify, as long as credible sources clearly identify the entity as the same project originally known as the Erebor initiative. The resolution source will be official announcements from a relevant banking authority and Erebor, as well as a consensus of credible reporting.

On July 2, it was reported that a group of tech billionaires led by Anduril co-founder Palmer Luckey are launching a new crypto-focused U.S. bank (see: https://www.reuters.com/business/tech-billionaires-led-by-palmer-luckey-launch-new-bank-rival-svb-ft-reports-2025-07-02/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, a national bank charter (conditional or unconditional) is granted by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) or a relevant state banking authority (e.g. Texas Department of Banking, New York State Department of Financial Services, etc) to a legal entity publicly recognized as the Erebor bank project backed by Palmer Luckey, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A name other than “Erebor” or a change in Palmer Luckey’s involvement will still qualify, as long as credible sources clearly identify the entity as the same project originally known as the Erebor initiative.

The resolution source will be official announcements from a relevant banking authority and Erebor, as well as a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$13,877
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2025, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...
On July 2, it was reported that a group of tech billionaires led by Anduril co-founder Palmer Luckey are launching a new crypto-focused U.S. bank (see: https://www.reuters.com/business/tech-billionaires-led-by-palmer-luckey-launch-new-bank-rival-svb-ft-reports-2025-07-02/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if, a national bank charter (conditional or unconditional) is granted by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) or a relevant state banking authority (e.g. Texas Department of Banking, New York State Department of Financial Services, etc) to a legal entity publicly recognized as the Erebor bank project backed by Palmer Luckey, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A name other than “Erebor” or a change in Palmer Luckey’s involvement will still qualify, as long as credible sources clearly identify the entity as the same project originally known as the Erebor initiative. The resolution source will be official announcements from a relevant banking authority and Erebor, as well as a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Palmer Luckey Erebor Bank chartered in 2025?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Palmer Luckey Erebor Bank chartered in 2025?" has generated $13.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Palmer Luckey Erebor Bank chartered in 2025?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Palmer Luckey Erebor Bank chartered in 2025?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Palmer Luckey Erebor Bank chartered in 2025?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.