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Geopolitics·Parlays

Nothing Ever Happens: April

Market icon
Geopolitics·Parlays

Nothing Ever Happens: April

Mar 31

Apr 30

Dec 31

Mar 31

Apr 30

Dec 31

Nothing

73% chance
Polymarket

$45,369 Vol.

Nothing

73% chance
Polymarket

$45,369 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal - WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $200 - Fed decides any change in April - US military action against Cuba - Anyone jailed over Epstein disclosures Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_APRIL_2.pdfTrader consensus prices "Nothing" at 73% for the April parlay market, reflecting the absence of any triggering events through April 18 amid de-escalation in the 2026 Iran war, where a U.S.-brokered two-week ceasefire took effect on April 7, easing risks of U.S. forces entering Iran or WTI crude oil surging above $200 per barrel. No Federal Reserve policy changes have occurred despite an upcoming FOMC meeting later this month, while prospects for U.S. military action against Cuba or jailings tied to Epstein disclosures remain remote absent new developments. Strait of Hormuz traffic has partially resumed post-ceasefire but not yet normalized per official metrics, sustaining high odds for no resolution triggers by April 30.

This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $200
- Fed decides any change in April
- US military action against Cuba
- Anyone jailed over Epstein disclosures

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_APRIL_2.pdf
Volume
$45,369
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal - WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $200 - Fed decides any change in April - US military action against Cuba - Anyone jailed over Epstein disclosures Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_APRIL_2.pdf
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal - WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $200 - Fed decides any change in April - US military action against Cuba - Anyone jailed over Epstein disclosures Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_APRIL_2.pdfTrader consensus prices "Nothing" at 73% for the April parlay market, reflecting the absence of any triggering events through April 18 amid de-escalation in the 2026 Iran war, where a U.S.-brokered two-week ceasefire took effect on April 7, easing risks of U.S. forces entering Iran or WTI crude oil surging above $200 per barrel. No Federal Reserve policy changes have occurred despite an upcoming FOMC meeting later this month, while prospects for U.S. military action against Cuba or jailings tied to Epstein disclosures remain remote absent new developments. Strait of Hormuz traffic has partially resumed post-ceasefire but not yet normalized per official metrics, sustaining high odds for no resolution triggers by April 30.

This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $200
- Fed decides any change in April
- US military action against Cuba
- Anyone jailed over Epstein disclosures

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_APRIL_2.pdf
Volume
$45,371
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal - WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $200 - Fed decides any change in April - US military action against Cuba - Anyone jailed over Epstein disclosures Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_APRIL_2.pdf

Related

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Nothing Ever Happens: Obama

83%
Nothing
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Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

82%
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Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?

35%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Nothing Ever Happens: April" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Nothing Ever Happens: April" at 73%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 73¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Nothing Ever Happens: April" has generated $45.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Nothing Ever Happens: April," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Nothing Ever Happens: April" is "Nothing Ever Happens: April" at 73%, meaning the market assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Nothing Ever Happens: April" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.