In New Jersey's 7th Congressional District, a battleground race pitting Democrat Sue Altman against Republican Scott Rumana, trader consensus favors Democrats at 59.5% implied probability amid recent polling showing Altman ahead by 4-6 points in surveys from RMG Research and Data for Progress conducted in late October. This edge stems from Altman's superior fundraising—over $5 million raised versus Rumana's $2.5 million—and stronger support among independent voters in the district, which Trump carried narrowly in 2020. National headwinds for Republicans, including weaker early voting turnout in suburban swing districts, have bolstered Democratic positioning, though Rumana benefits from incumbency-like name recognition from his prior state service and GOP base mobilization. With Election Day on November 5, final absentee ballot counts and turnout in counties like Hunterdon and Somerset could tip the balance in this closely contested matchup.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNJ-07 House Election Winner
NJ-07 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
27%
Democratic Party
49%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
27%
Democratic Party
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In New Jersey's 7th Congressional District, a battleground race pitting Democrat Sue Altman against Republican Scott Rumana, trader consensus favors Democrats at 59.5% implied probability amid recent polling showing Altman ahead by 4-6 points in surveys from RMG Research and Data for Progress conducted in late October. This edge stems from Altman's superior fundraising—over $5 million raised versus Rumana's $2.5 million—and stronger support among independent voters in the district, which Trump carried narrowly in 2020. National headwinds for Republicans, including weaker early voting turnout in suburban swing districts, have bolstered Democratic positioning, though Rumana benefits from incumbency-like name recognition from his prior state service and GOP base mobilization. With Election Day on November 5, final absentee ballot counts and turnout in counties like Hunterdon and Somerset could tip the balance in this closely contested matchup.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In New Jersey's 7th Congressional District, a battleground race pitting Democrat Sue Altman against Republican Scott Rumana, trader consensus favors Democrats at 59.5% implied probability amid recent polling showing Altman ahead by 4-6 points in surveys from RMG Research and Data for Progress conducted in late October. This edge stems from Altman's superior fundraising—over $5 million raised versus Rumana's $2.5 million—and stronger support among independent voters in the district, which Trump carried narrowly in 2020. National headwinds for Republicans, including weaker early voting turnout in suburban swing districts, have bolstered Democratic positioning, though Rumana benefits from incumbency-like name recognition from his prior state service and GOP base mobilization. With Election Day on November 5, final absentee ballot counts and turnout in counties like Hunterdon and Somerset could tip the balance in this closely contested matchup.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In New Jersey's 7th Congressional District, a battleground race pitting Democrat Sue Altman against Republican Scott Rumana, trader consensus favors Democrats at 59.5% implied probability amid recent polling showing Altman ahead by 4-6 points in surveys from RMG Research and Data for Progress conducted in late October. This edge stems from Altman's superior fundraising—over $5 million raised versus Rumana's $2.5 million—and stronger support among independent voters in the district, which Trump carried narrowly in 2020. National headwinds for Republicans, including weaker early voting turnout in suburban swing districts, have bolstered Democratic positioning, though Rumana benefits from incumbency-like name recognition from his prior state service and GOP base mobilization. With Election Day on November 5, final absentee ballot counts and turnout in counties like Hunterdon and Somerset could tip the balance in this closely contested matchup.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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