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Politics·England

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

Market icon
Politics·England

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

No Next PM in 2026 43%

Angela Rayner 19%

Ed Miliband 7.7%

Wes Streeting 5%

Polymarket

$4,202,634 Vol.

No Next PM in 2026 43%

Angela Rayner 19%

Ed Miliband 7.7%

Wes Streeting 5%

Polymarket

$4,202,634 Vol.

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No Next PM in 2026

$131,164 Vol.

43%

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Angela Rayner

$256,632 Vol.

19%

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Ed Miliband

$176,472 Vol.

8%

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Wes Streeting

$62,111 Vol.

5%

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Rupert Lowe

$572,916 Vol.

4%

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Andy Burnham

$293,414 Vol.

3%

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Nigel Farage

$644,056 Vol.

3%

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Al Carns

$105,500 Vol.

1%

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Yvette Cooper

$173,628 Vol.

1%

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Shabana Mahmood

$198,473 Vol.

1%

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David Lammy

$98,100 Vol.

1%

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Lucy Powell

$178,843 Vol.

1%

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Rachel Reeves

$353,009 Vol.

<1%

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Kemi Badenoch

$111,601 Vol.

<1%

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Darren Jones

$126,498 Vol.

<1%

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James Cleverly

$152,995 Vol.

<1%

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Boris Johnson

$149,236 Vol.

<1%

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Robert Jenrick

$206,019 Vol.

<1%

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Ed Davey

$146,200 Vol.

<1%

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Bridget Phillipson

$65,780 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 42.5% chance of no new UK Prime Minister in 2026, reflecting Keir Starmer's survival of February leadership pressures—including a failed coup attempt, by-election losses to Reform UK and Greens, and resignations like chief of staff Morgan McSweeney—without triggering resignation or snap election. Angela Rayner leads alternatives at 18.5% as former deputy prime minister, buoyed by her mid-March speeches at Labour events criticizing government policy as "un-British" on immigration and warning the party is "running out of time," fueling speculation of an imminent leadership contest. Ed Miliband (7.6%) and Wes Streeting (4.5%) follow as influential cabinet figures amid reshuffle rumors, while Reform's Rupert Lowe (3.6%) gains from opposition momentum. No developments in the past week have shifted this closely contested positioning, with local elections looming as a potential catalyst.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,202,634
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 42.5% chance of no new UK Prime Minister in 2026, reflecting Keir Starmer's survival of February leadership pressures—including a failed coup attempt, by-election losses to Reform UK and Greens, and resignations like chief of staff Morgan McSweeney—without triggering resignation or snap election. Angela Rayner leads alternatives at 18.5% as former deputy prime minister, buoyed by her mid-March speeches at Labour events criticizing government policy as "un-British" on immigration and warning the party is "running out of time," fueling speculation of an imminent leadership contest. Ed Miliband (7.6%) and Wes Streeting (4.5%) follow as influential cabinet figures amid reshuffle rumors, while Reform's Rupert Lowe (3.6%) gains from opposition momentum. No developments in the past week have shifted this closely contested positioning, with local elections looming as a potential catalyst.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,202,634
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No Next PM in 2026" at 43%, followed by "Angela Rayner" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?" has generated $4.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?" is "No Next PM in 2026" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Angela Rayner" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.