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Politics·England

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

Market icon
Politics·England

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

No Next PM in 2026 42%

Angela Rayner 19%

Ed Miliband 7.6%

Nigel Farage 6.0%

Polymarket

$4,137,159 Vol.

No Next PM in 2026 42%

Angela Rayner 19%

Ed Miliband 7.6%

Nigel Farage 6.0%

Polymarket

$4,137,159 Vol.

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No Next PM in 2026

$131,156 Vol.

42%

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Angela Rayner

$256,612 Vol.

19%

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Ed Miliband

$176,452 Vol.

8%

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Nigel Farage

$612,323 Vol.

6%

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Wes Streeting

$62,106 Vol.

5%

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Rupert Lowe

$572,916 Vol.

4%

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Andy Burnham

$293,414 Vol.

3%

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Shabana Mahmood

$198,473 Vol.

1%

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Yvette Cooper

$154,197 Vol.

1%

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Al Carns

$105,500 Vol.

1%

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David Lammy

$98,100 Vol.

1%

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Lucy Powell

$166,171 Vol.

1%

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Rachel Reeves

$353,009 Vol.

<1%

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Kemi Badenoch

$111,601 Vol.

<1%

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Darren Jones

$126,498 Vol.

<1%

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James Cleverly

$151,742 Vol.

<1%

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Robert Jenrick

$205,967 Vol.

<1%

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Boris Johnson

$148,992 Vol.

<1%

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Ed Davey

$146,175 Vol.

<1%

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Bridget Phillipson

$65,757 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors no new UK Prime Minister in 2026 at 42%, reflecting Keir Starmer's determination to "stay the course" amid Labour's polling slump and economic pressures, bolstered by a failed February leadership challenge that demonstrated his resilience despite resignations and internal dissent. Angela Rayner leads alternatives at 18.5% following her mid-March speech warning the party is "running out of time" and faces survival risks, positioning her as a frontrunner for a potential May leadership contest with backing from colleagues. Reform UK's Nigel Farage at 6.7% gains from his party's poll surge, while Ed Miliband at 7.6% benefits from cabinet prominence; no snap election rumors have materialized, keeping next general election on track for 2029.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,137,159
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors no new UK Prime Minister in 2026 at 42%, reflecting Keir Starmer's determination to "stay the course" amid Labour's polling slump and economic pressures, bolstered by a failed February leadership challenge that demonstrated his resilience despite resignations and internal dissent. Angela Rayner leads alternatives at 18.5% following her mid-March speech warning the party is "running out of time" and faces survival risks, positioning her as a frontrunner for a potential May leadership contest with backing from colleagues. Reform UK's Nigel Farage at 6.7% gains from his party's poll surge, while Ed Miliband at 7.6% benefits from cabinet prominence; no snap election rumors have materialized, keeping next general election on track for 2029.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,137,159
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No Next PM in 2026" at 42%, followed by "Angela Rayner" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?" has generated $4.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?" is "No Next PM in 2026" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Angela Rayner" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.