Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced on March 24 that the IDF plans to occupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani River to establish a security buffer zone against Hezbollah rocket fire, prompting trader consensus to price "Yes" at 62.5% for a crossing by June 30. Prime Minister Netanyahu reinforced this on March 29 by ordering military expansion northward amid ongoing ground advances and airstrikes demolishing multiple Litani bridges used by Hezbollah for arms transfers. Clashes on the river banks and evacuation orders south of the Litani signal escalating operations, though Hezbollah vows resistance; with three months remaining, historical IDF dominance in southern Lebanon supports the crowd's moderate optimism despite escalation risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIsraeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
$144,780 Vol.
$144,780 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$144,780 Vol.
$144,780 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced on March 24 that the IDF plans to occupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani River to establish a security buffer zone against Hezbollah rocket fire, prompting trader consensus to price "Yes" at 62.5% for a crossing by June 30. Prime Minister Netanyahu reinforced this on March 29 by ordering military expansion northward amid ongoing ground advances and airstrikes demolishing multiple Litani bridges used by Hezbollah for arms transfers. Clashes on the river banks and evacuation orders south of the Litani signal escalating operations, though Hezbollah vows resistance; with three months remaining, historical IDF dominance in southern Lebanon supports the crowd's moderate optimism despite escalation risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$144,780End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced on March 24 that the IDF plans to occupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani River to establish a security buffer zone against Hezbollah rocket fire, prompting trader consensus to price "Yes" at 62.5% for a crossing by June 30. Prime Minister Netanyahu reinforced this on March 29 by ordering military expansion northward amid ongoing ground advances and airstrikes demolishing multiple Litani bridges used by Hezbollah for arms transfers. Clashes on the river banks and evacuation orders south of the Litani signal escalating operations, though Hezbollah vows resistance; with three months remaining, historical IDF dominance in southern Lebanon supports the crowd's moderate optimism despite escalation risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$144,780End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced on March 24 that the IDF plans to occupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani River to establish a security buffer zone against Hezbollah rocket fire, prompting trader consensus to price "Yes" at 62.5% for a crossing by June 30. Prime Minister Netanyahu reinforced this on March 29 by ordering military expansion northward amid ongoing ground advances and airstrikes demolishing multiple Litani bridges used by Hezbollah for arms transfers. Clashes on the river banks and evacuation orders south of the Litani signal escalating operations, though Hezbollah vows resistance; with three months remaining, historical IDF dominance in southern Lebanon supports the crowd's moderate optimism despite escalation risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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