Intensified Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, including a ground incursion launched early October targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, have dimmed ceasefire prospects following the September 27 assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Hezbollah continues rocket barrages into northern Israel, displacing tens of thousands, while Israeli airstrikes have killed senior commanders and prompted evacuations in Beirut suburbs. Diplomatic efforts by US envoy Amos Hochstein and mediators like Qatar and France seek a 60-day truce tied to Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River under UN Resolution 1701, but sticking points persist amid mutual escalation signals. Traders monitor potential UN Security Council actions or Israeli cabinet decisions on operation scope ahead of winter conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$345,207 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
March 31
2%
June 30
43%
April 30
12%
$345,207 Vol.
March 31
$306,582 Vol.
2%
June 30
$37,768 Vol.
43%
April 30
$856 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Intensified Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, including a ground incursion launched early October targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, have dimmed ceasefire prospects following the September 27 assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Hezbollah continues rocket barrages into northern Israel, displacing tens of thousands, while Israeli airstrikes have killed senior commanders and prompted evacuations in Beirut suburbs. Diplomatic efforts by US envoy Amos Hochstein and mediators like Qatar and France seek a 60-day truce tied to Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River under UN Resolution 1701, but sticking points persist amid mutual escalation signals. Traders monitor potential UN Security Council actions or Israeli cabinet decisions on operation scope ahead of winter conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$345,207End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Intensified Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, including a ground incursion launched early October targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, have dimmed ceasefire prospects following the September 27 assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Hezbollah continues rocket barrages into northern Israel, displacing tens of thousands, while Israeli airstrikes have killed senior commanders and prompted evacuations in Beirut suburbs. Diplomatic efforts by US envoy Amos Hochstein and mediators like Qatar and France seek a 60-day truce tied to Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River under UN Resolution 1701, but sticking points persist amid mutual escalation signals. Traders monitor potential UN Security Council actions or Israeli cabinet decisions on operation scope ahead of winter conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$345,207End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Intensified Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, including a ground incursion launched early October targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, have dimmed ceasefire prospects following the September 27 assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Hezbollah continues rocket barrages into northern Israel, displacing tens of thousands, while Israeli airstrikes have killed senior commanders and prompted evacuations in Beirut suburbs. Diplomatic efforts by US envoy Amos Hochstein and mediators like Qatar and France seek a 60-day truce tied to Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River under UN Resolution 1701, but sticking points persist amid mutual escalation signals. Traders monitor potential UN Security Council actions or Israeli cabinet decisions on operation scope ahead of winter conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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