Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

Market icon

Israel military action against Qatar in 2025?

$98,592 Vol.

>99% chance

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Qatari soil between September 3, 11:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying "military action" includes any use of kinetic force, or intelligence/special operation executed by the Israeli military on Qatari soil (e.g. if a weapons depot on Qatari soil is hit by a Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

If a qualifying military action is widely attributed to Israel, this market may resolve to "Yes" even if the action is not officially confirmed/acknowledged by the Israeli government.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$98,592
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Created At
Sep 4, 2025, 3:26 AM UTC

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

shield

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

$98,592 Vol.

Market icon

Israel military action against Qatar in 2025?

>99% chance

About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Qatari soil between September 3, 11:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying "military action" includes any use of kinetic force, or intelligence/special operation executed by the Israeli military on Qatari soil (e.g. if a weapons depot on Qatari soil is hit by a Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

If a qualifying military action is widely attributed to Israel, this market may resolve to "Yes" even if the action is not officially confirmed/acknowledged by the Israeli government.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$98,592
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Created At
Sep 4, 2025, 3:26 AM UTC

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

shield

Beware of external links.