U.S. and Israeli airstrikes since late February 2026, amid Operation Epic Fury, have inflicted severe damage to Iran's key nuclear facilities including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, as confirmed by IAEA satellite observations and Director General statements denying any structured weaponization program or imminent bomb capability. Pre-war stockpiles of around 440 kg of 60% highly enriched uranium remain unverified and possibly buried underground due to denied IAEA access since June 2025 strikes, but U.S. intelligence assessments indicate strikes extended breakout timelines beyond 2027 by crippling enrichment infrastructure. Ongoing military degradation, regime leadership transition following Ayatollah Khamenei's death, and diplomatic pressures sustain trader consensus at 89.5% against Iran testing or deploying a nuclear weapon before year-end. Late-breaking reconstitution or doctrinal reversal could shift odds.