Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 86.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, driven by the regime's resilience amid the 2026 Iran war that began with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting military and government sites. A structural shift toward a military state, as analyzed in early April reporting, has consolidated power under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Supreme Leader allies, suppressing dissent without signs of high-level defections or plots. January protests were quashed without sparking broader upheaval, and no verified internal fractures have emerged in the past 30 days despite external escalation. Upcoming diplomatic maneuvers or intensified airstrikes could shift odds, but current stability dominates trader assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$399,904 Vol.
$399,904 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$399,904 Vol.
$399,904 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 86.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, driven by the regime's resilience amid the 2026 Iran war that began with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting military and government sites. A structural shift toward a military state, as analyzed in early April reporting, has consolidated power under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Supreme Leader allies, suppressing dissent without signs of high-level defections or plots. January protests were quashed without sparking broader upheaval, and no verified internal fractures have emerged in the past 30 days despite external escalation. Upcoming diplomatic maneuvers or intensified airstrikes could shift odds, but current stability dominates trader assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$399,904End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 86.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, driven by the regime's resilience amid the 2026 Iran war that began with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting military and government sites. A structural shift toward a military state, as analyzed in early April reporting, has consolidated power under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Supreme Leader allies, suppressing dissent without signs of high-level defections or plots. January protests were quashed without sparking broader upheaval, and no verified internal fractures have emerged in the past 30 days despite external escalation. Upcoming diplomatic maneuvers or intensified airstrikes could shift odds, but current stability dominates trader assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$399,904End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 86.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, driven by the regime's resilience amid the 2026 Iran war that began with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting military and government sites. A structural shift toward a military state, as analyzed in early April reporting, has consolidated power under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Supreme Leader allies, suppressing dissent without signs of high-level defections or plots. January protests were quashed without sparking broader upheaval, and no verified internal fractures have emerged in the past 30 days despite external escalation. Upcoming diplomatic maneuvers or intensified airstrikes could shift odds, but current stability dominates trader assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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