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Elections·House Primary

IA-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Elections·House Primary

IA-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Lindsay James 62%

Clint Twedt-Ball 30%

Kathy Dolter 7%

Guy Morgan 3.3%

Polymarket
NEW

Lindsay James 62%

Clint Twedt-Ball 30%

Kathy Dolter 7%

Guy Morgan 3.3%

Polymarket
NEW

Lindsay James

$1,982 Vol.

62%

Clint Twedt-Ball

$0 Vol.

30%

Kathy Dolter

$0 Vol.

7%

Guy Morgan

$0 Vol.

3%

Don Primus

$0 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Lindsay James holds a commanding 62% implied probability in trader consensus for the IA-02 Democratic primary, driven by her lead in the latest Emerson College poll (37%) released May 20, superior fundraising exceeding $500,000, and key endorsements from EMILYs List, Planned Parenthood, and the Iowa AFL-CIO. Clint Twedt-Ball trails at 29.5% on his 21% poll share and progressive support, including from Our Revolution, positioning him as the main challenger in this crowded field. Kathy Dolter's 7% reflects her 12% poll standing and teachers' union backing, while Guy Morgan and Don Primus lag with minimal momentum. No major developments in the past 48 hours, but the June 4 primary looms with potential for late shifts from absentee ballots or final debates.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$1,982
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 6:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Lindsay James holds a commanding 62% implied probability in trader consensus for the IA-02 Democratic primary, driven by her lead in the latest Emerson College poll (37%) released May 20, superior fundraising exceeding $500,000, and key endorsements from EMILYs List, Planned Parenthood, and the Iowa AFL-CIO. Clint Twedt-Ball trails at 29.5% on his 21% poll share and progressive support, including from Our Revolution, positioning him as the main challenger in this crowded field. Kathy Dolter's 7% reflects her 12% poll standing and teachers' union backing, while Guy Morgan and Don Primus lag with minimal momentum. No major developments in the past 48 hours, but the June 4 primary looms with potential for late shifts from absentee ballots or final debates.

Lindsay James holds a commanding 62% implied probability in trader consensus for the IA-02 Democratic primary, driven by her lead in the latest Emerson College poll (37%) released May 20, superior fundraising exceeding $500,000, and key endorsements from EMILYs List, Planned Parenthood, and the Iowa AFL-CIO. Clint Twedt-Ball trails at 29.5% on his 21% poll share and progressive support, including from Our Revolution, positioning him as the main challenger in this crowded field. Kathy Dolter's 7% reflects her 12% poll standing and teachers' union backing, while Guy Morgan and Don Primus lag with minimal momentum. No major developments in the past 48 hours, but the June 4 primary looms with potential for late shifts from absentee ballots or final debates.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"IA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lindsay James" at 62%, followed by "Clint Twedt-Ball" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 62¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 62% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"IA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 25, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "IA-02 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "IA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Lindsay James" at 62%, meaning the market assigns a 62% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Clint Twedt-Ball" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "IA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.