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FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner

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FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner

$13,453 Vol.

Polymarket

$13,453 Vol.

Jared Moskowitz

$4,483 Vol.

67%

Oliver Adams Larkin

$8,969 Vol.

32%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz holds a commanding 66.5% implied probability in trader consensus for the FL-23 Democratic primary on August 18, reflecting his strong incumbency advantage, superior fundraising—ending 2025 with over $1 million cash-on-hand—and established name recognition among closed primary voters in this South Florida district spanning Broward and Palm Beach counties. Challenger Oliver Adams Larkin trails at 32.5%, buoyed by the Democratic Socialists of America's first 2026 federal endorsement on March 31 and a campaign poll from early March showing him ahead 49-36 after balanced bios, tapping voter sentiment against ongoing military aid to Israel where 63% favor reductions. Traders weigh Moskowitz's institutional edge against Larkin's progressive momentum, with Q1 fundraising disclosures and potential debates ahead as key catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$13,453
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 19, 2025, 2:12 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz holds a commanding 66.5% implied probability in trader consensus for the FL-23 Democratic primary on August 18, reflecting his strong incumbency advantage, superior fundraising—ending 2025 with over $1 million cash-on-hand—and established name recognition among closed primary voters in this South Florida district spanning Broward and Palm Beach counties. Challenger Oliver Adams Larkin trails at 32.5%, buoyed by the Democratic Socialists of America's first 2026 federal endorsement on March 31 and a campaign poll from early March showing him ahead 49-36 after balanced bios, tapping voter sentiment against ongoing military aid to Israel where 63% favor reductions. Traders weigh Moskowitz's institutional edge against Larkin's progressive momentum, with Q1 fundraising disclosures and potential debates ahead as key catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$13,453
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 19, 2025, 2:12 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jared Moskowitz" at 67%, followed by "Oliver Adams Larkin" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 67¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $13.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 19, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Jared Moskowitz" at 67%, meaning the market assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Oliver Adams Larkin" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.