VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Name: VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Start: 2025-11-25T21:46:46.902Z
End: 2026-06-16T00:00:00.000Z

Politics·Primaries

VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Elaine Luria 82%

James Osyf 6.6%

Matt Strickler 4.8%

Nila Devanath 3.0%

NEW

Jun 16, 2026

Elaine Luria

$976 Vol.

82%

James Osyf

$781 Vol.

Matt Strickler

$382 Vol.

Nila Devanath

$539 Vol.

Burk Stringfellow

$511 Vol.

Patrick Mosolf

$534 Vol.

Nicolaus Sleister

$828 Vol.

Elaine Luria 82%

James Osyf 6.6%

Matt Strickler 4.8%

Nila Devanath 3.0%

NEW

Jun 16, 2026

Elaine Luria

$976 Vol.

82%

James Osyf

$781 Vol.

Matt Strickler

$382 Vol.

Nila Devanath

$539 Vol.

Burk Stringfellow

$511 Vol.

Patrick Mosolf

$534 Vol.

Nicolaus Sleister

$828 Vol.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Trader consensus heavily favors Elaine Luria as the VA-02 Democratic primary winner, reflecting her strong incumbency advantage from serving the district 2019-2023, superior fundraising with over $2.5 million raised versus challengers' totals under $100,000 each, and endorsements from Senate leaders like Mark Warner and Tim Kaine. Recent FEC filings through May underscore her financial dominance, while sparse polling and low-visibility campaign events for rivals like James Osyf and Matt Strickler limit their traction. Absent major disruptions ahead of the June 18 primary, Luria's name recognition and organizational edge sustain her 81.5% implied probability, embodying the wisdom of crowds in this low-drama race.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 22, 2026, 3:54 AM UTC

Will Lindsay James be the Democratic Nominee for IA-02?

68%

Will the Democratic Party win the VA-02 House seat?

85%

Will Christina Bohannan be the Democratic Nominee for IA-01?

90%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Elaine Luria" at 82%, followed by "James Osyf" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 25, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Elaine Luria" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "James Osyf" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 82¢ for "Elaine Luria" in the "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 82% chance that "Elaine Luria" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 82¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 18¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jun 16, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner

VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner

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