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Politics·Primaries

VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Elaine Luria 84%

Matt Strickler 4.0%

Nila Devanath 3.6%

Burk Stringfellow 3.6%

Polymarket
NEW

Elaine Luria 84%

Matt Strickler 4.0%

Nila Devanath 3.6%

Burk Stringfellow 3.6%

Polymarket
NEW

Elaine Luria

$1,102 Vol.

84%

Matt Strickler

$0 Vol.

4%

Nila Devanath

$779 Vol.

4%

Burk Stringfellow

$0 Vol.

4%

Nicolaus Sleister

$0 Vol.

3%

Patrick Mosolf

$1,490 Vol.

3%

James Osyf

$1,097 Vol.

9%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria dominates trader consensus at 83% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, fueled by her superior fundraising—$1.75 million raised in Q1 2026 alone, yielding $2 million cash on hand, per her April 2 announcement—and inclusion in the DCCC's Red to Blue program in February. As a Navy veteran and prior district representative, she holds strong name recognition in the military-heavy district, dwarfing rivals like James Osyf ($411,000 raised) and Nila Devanath ($200,000). Challengers Matt Strickler, Burk Stringfellow, Nicolaus Sleister, and Patrick Mosolf trail with modest funds amid a crowded field; no public primary polls exist, but party consolidation pressures and the May 26 filing deadline could further solidify her path absent major shifts.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$4,468
End Date
Jun 16, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria dominates trader consensus at 83% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, fueled by her superior fundraising—$1.75 million raised in Q1 2026 alone, yielding $2 million cash on hand, per her April 2 announcement—and inclusion in the DCCC's Red to Blue program in February. As a Navy veteran and prior district representative, she holds strong name recognition in the military-heavy district, dwarfing rivals like James Osyf ($411,000 raised) and Nila Devanath ($200,000). Challengers Matt Strickler, Burk Stringfellow, Nicolaus Sleister, and Patrick Mosolf trail with modest funds amid a crowded field; no public primary polls exist, but party consolidation pressures and the May 26 filing deadline could further solidify her path absent major shifts.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$4,468
End Date
Jun 16, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Elaine Luria" at 84%, followed by "James Osyf" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 25, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Elaine Luria" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "James Osyf" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.