Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a razor-thin contest between zero (31.3%) and one (28.5%) Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting uncertainty over persistent inflation pressures amid a resilient economy. The March 18 FOMC statement held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, with the dot plot's median projecting just one 25 basis point cut by year-end, aligning with February CPI's sticky 2.4% year-over-year rise and unemployment edging to 4.4%. An oil price spike from Iran tensions has further dimmed easing prospects, per market futures implying near-certainty of no April change. Key swing factors include the March 10 CPI release on April 10 and May FOMC, where softer labor data could tip toward one cut or sustained strength toward zero.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated0 (0 bps) 31.3%
1 (25 bps) 29%
2 (50 bps) 19%
3 (75 bps) 10%
$15,274,207 Vol.
$15,274,207 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
31%
1 (25 bps)
29%
2 (50 bps)
19%
3 (75 bps)
10%
4 (100 bps)
6%
5 (125 bps)
2%
6 (150 bps)
1%
7 (175 bps)
1%
8 (200 bps)
1%
9 (225 bps)
<1%
10 (250 bps)
<1%
11 (275 bps)
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
1%
0 (0 bps) 31.3%
1 (25 bps) 29%
2 (50 bps) 19%
3 (75 bps) 10%
$15,274,207 Vol.
$15,274,207 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$2,674,353 Vol.
31%
1 (25 bps)
$890,235 Vol.
29%
2 (50 bps)
$819,813 Vol.
19%
3 (75 bps)
$792,412 Vol.
10%
4 (100 bps)
$802,751 Vol.
6%
5 (125 bps)
$850,684 Vol.
2%
6 (150 bps)
$1,863,400 Vol.
1%
7 (175 bps)
$783,175 Vol.
1%
8 (200 bps)
$1,003,246 Vol.
1%
9 (225 bps)
$813,605 Vol.
<1%
10 (250 bps)
$1,262,747 Vol.
<1%
11 (275 bps)
$1,110,331 Vol.
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$1,607,547 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a razor-thin contest between zero (31.3%) and one (28.5%) Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting uncertainty over persistent inflation pressures amid a resilient economy. The March 18 FOMC statement held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, with the dot plot's median projecting just one 25 basis point cut by year-end, aligning with February CPI's sticky 2.4% year-over-year rise and unemployment edging to 4.4%. An oil price spike from Iran tensions has further dimmed easing prospects, per market futures implying near-certainty of no April change. Key swing factors include the March 10 CPI release on April 10 and May FOMC, where softer labor data could tip toward one cut or sustained strength toward zero.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market Opened: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$15,274,207End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a razor-thin contest between zero (31.3%) and one (28.5%) Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting uncertainty over persistent inflation pressures amid a resilient economy. The March 18 FOMC statement held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, with the dot plot's median projecting just one 25 basis point cut by year-end, aligning with February CPI's sticky 2.4% year-over-year rise and unemployment edging to 4.4%. An oil price spike from Iran tensions has further dimmed easing prospects, per market futures implying near-certainty of no April change. Key swing factors include the March 10 CPI release on April 10 and May FOMC, where softer labor data could tip toward one cut or sustained strength toward zero.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$15,274,207End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a razor-thin contest between zero (31.3%) and one (28.5%) Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting uncertainty over persistent inflation pressures amid a resilient economy. The March 18 FOMC statement held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, with the dot plot's median projecting just one 25 basis point cut by year-end, aligning with February CPI's sticky 2.4% year-over-year rise and unemployment edging to 4.4%. An oil price spike from Iran tensions has further dimmed easing prospects, per market futures implying near-certainty of no April change. Key swing factors include the March 10 CPI release on April 10 and May FOMC, where softer labor data could tip toward one cut or sustained strength toward zero.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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