Trader consensus clusters around 7-9 countries at 31.6%, 23.4%, and 13.6% respectively for total US military actions in 2026, driven by six to seven confirmed theaters through mid-April: airstrikes and special operations in Iran amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war sparked by February 28 Operation Epic Fury strikes alongside Israel, plus earlier actions in Venezuela (January raid capturing Nicolás Maduro), Yemen (Houthi targets), Syria and Iraq (ISIS counterterrorism), Somalia (al-Shabaab April 9 airstrike), and Nigeria. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over expansions from Iranian proxy threats or new escalations like North Korean missile tests, with recent US Strait of Hormuz blockade (April 12) and ceasefire talks potentially capping further additions while congressional war powers resolutions signal restraint pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
7 31.6%
8 23.4%
9 13.6%
6 10.0%
$974,092 Vol.
$974,092 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6
10%
7
32%
8
23%
9
14%
10
9%
11
7%
12
2%
13
2%
14
1%
15+
1%
7 31.6%
8 23.4%
9 13.6%
6 10.0%
$974,092 Vol.
$974,092 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6
$423,302 Vol.
10%
7
$6,873 Vol.
32%
8
$105,405 Vol.
23%
9
$11,435 Vol.
14%
10
$12,069 Vol.
9%
11
$17,452 Vol.
7%
12
$28,463 Vol.
2%
13
$47,276 Vol.
2%
14
$42,131 Vol.
1%
15+
$119,843 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus clusters around 7-9 countries at 31.6%, 23.4%, and 13.6% respectively for total US military actions in 2026, driven by six to seven confirmed theaters through mid-April: airstrikes and special operations in Iran amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war sparked by February 28 Operation Epic Fury strikes alongside Israel, plus earlier actions in Venezuela (January raid capturing Nicolás Maduro), Yemen (Houthi targets), Syria and Iraq (ISIS counterterrorism), Somalia (al-Shabaab April 9 airstrike), and Nigeria. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over expansions from Iranian proxy threats or new escalations like North Korean missile tests, with recent US Strait of Hormuz blockade (April 12) and ceasefire talks potentially capping further additions while congressional war powers resolutions signal restraint pressures.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
Volume
$974,092End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus clusters around 7-9 countries at 31.6%, 23.4%, and 13.6% respectively for total US military actions in 2026, driven by six to seven confirmed theaters through mid-April: airstrikes and special operations in Iran amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war sparked by February 28 Operation Epic Fury strikes alongside Israel, plus earlier actions in Venezuela (January raid capturing Nicolás Maduro), Yemen (Houthi targets), Syria and Iraq (ISIS counterterrorism), Somalia (al-Shabaab April 9 airstrike), and Nigeria. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over expansions from Iranian proxy threats or new escalations like North Korean missile tests, with recent US Strait of Hormuz blockade (April 12) and ceasefire talks potentially capping further additions while congressional war powers resolutions signal restraint pressures.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$974,092End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus clusters around 7-9 countries at 31.6%, 23.4%, and 13.6% respectively for total US military actions in 2026, driven by six to seven confirmed theaters through mid-April: airstrikes and special operations in Iran amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war sparked by February 28 Operation Epic Fury strikes alongside Israel, plus earlier actions in Venezuela (January raid capturing Nicolás Maduro), Yemen (Houthi targets), Syria and Iraq (ISIS counterterrorism), Somalia (al-Shabaab April 9 airstrike), and Nigeria. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over expansions from Iranian proxy threats or new escalations like North Korean missile tests, with recent US Strait of Hormuz blockade (April 12) and ceasefire talks potentially capping further additions while congressional war powers resolutions signal restraint pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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