Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the FOMC's December dot plot projecting the fed funds rate declining to a 3.1% median by year-end from the current 4.25–4.50% range following the December 25-basis-point cut. Recent disinflation—November CPI at 2.7% year-over-year, the lowest since 2021—combined with a resilient yet cooling labor market (unemployment steady at 4.2%) has solidified expectations for accommodative monetary policy amid balanced growth risks. No overheating signals warrant tightening, with traders wagering on 50 basis points of further cuts in 2025. Key catalysts include January nonfarm payrolls, CPI data, and the next FOMC meeting, which could refine the market-implied rate path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$641,010 Vol.
$641,010 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
$641,010 Vol.
$641,010 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the FOMC's December dot plot projecting the fed funds rate declining to a 3.1% median by year-end from the current 4.25–4.50% range following the December 25-basis-point cut. Recent disinflation—November CPI at 2.7% year-over-year, the lowest since 2021—combined with a resilient yet cooling labor market (unemployment steady at 4.2%) has solidified expectations for accommodative monetary policy amid balanced growth risks. No overheating signals warrant tightening, with traders wagering on 50 basis points of further cuts in 2025. Key catalysts include January nonfarm payrolls, CPI data, and the next FOMC meeting, which could refine the market-implied rate path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$641,010End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the FOMC's December dot plot projecting the fed funds rate declining to a 3.1% median by year-end from the current 4.25–4.50% range following the December 25-basis-point cut. Recent disinflation—November CPI at 2.7% year-over-year, the lowest since 2021—combined with a resilient yet cooling labor market (unemployment steady at 4.2%) has solidified expectations for accommodative monetary policy amid balanced growth risks. No overheating signals warrant tightening, with traders wagering on 50 basis points of further cuts in 2025. Key catalysts include January nonfarm payrolls, CPI data, and the next FOMC meeting, which could refine the market-implied rate path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$641,010End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the FOMC's December dot plot projecting the fed funds rate declining to a 3.1% median by year-end from the current 4.25–4.50% range following the December 25-basis-point cut. Recent disinflation—November CPI at 2.7% year-over-year, the lowest since 2021—combined with a resilient yet cooling labor market (unemployment steady at 4.2%) has solidified expectations for accommodative monetary policy amid balanced growth risks. No overheating signals warrant tightening, with traders wagering on 50 basis points of further cuts in 2025. Key catalysts include January nonfarm payrolls, CPI data, and the next FOMC meeting, which could refine the market-implied rate path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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