Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.3% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady federal funds rates across its January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—reflecting real-money bets aligned with fed funds futures pricing near-zero odds for cuts. This positioning stems from confirmed pauses at the January 28 and March 17–18 meetings, where the FOMC held the target range at 3.50%–3.75% amid elevated inflation from a war-related oil shock, stable unemployment around recent lows, and modest job gains. March dot plots signal just one 25 basis-point cut later in 2026, with minutes revealing some officials open to hikes. The April 28–29 meeting looms as the final catalyst, but a realistic challenge would require sharp disinflation or labor market weakening in upcoming CPI or nonfarm payrolls data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFed decisions (Jan-Apr)
Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)
Pause–Pause–Pause 99.3%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
Other <1%
$651,473 Vol.
$651,473 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
99%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause 99.3%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
Other <1%
$651,473 Vol.
$651,473 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$98,086 Vol.
99%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$235,705 Vol.
1%
Other
$277,695 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.3% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady federal funds rates across its January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—reflecting real-money bets aligned with fed funds futures pricing near-zero odds for cuts. This positioning stems from confirmed pauses at the January 28 and March 17–18 meetings, where the FOMC held the target range at 3.50%–3.75% amid elevated inflation from a war-related oil shock, stable unemployment around recent lows, and modest job gains. March dot plots signal just one 25 basis-point cut later in 2026, with minutes revealing some officials open to hikes. The April 28–29 meeting looms as the final catalyst, but a realistic challenge would require sharp disinflation or labor market weakening in upcoming CPI or nonfarm payrolls data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
Volume
$651,473End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.3% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady federal funds rates across its January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—reflecting real-money bets aligned with fed funds futures pricing near-zero odds for cuts. This positioning stems from confirmed pauses at the January 28 and March 17–18 meetings, where the FOMC held the target range at 3.50%–3.75% amid elevated inflation from a war-related oil shock, stable unemployment around recent lows, and modest job gains. March dot plots signal just one 25 basis-point cut later in 2026, with minutes revealing some officials open to hikes. The April 28–29 meeting looms as the final catalyst, but a realistic challenge would require sharp disinflation or labor market weakening in upcoming CPI or nonfarm payrolls data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$651,473End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.3% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady federal funds rates across its January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—reflecting real-money bets aligned with fed funds futures pricing near-zero odds for cuts. This positioning stems from confirmed pauses at the January 28 and March 17–18 meetings, where the FOMC held the target range at 3.50%–3.75% amid elevated inflation from a war-related oil shock, stable unemployment around recent lows, and modest job gains. March dot plots signal just one 25 basis-point cut later in 2026, with minutes revealing some officials open to hikes. The April 28–29 meeting looms as the final catalyst, but a realistic challenge would require sharp disinflation or labor market weakening in upcoming CPI or nonfarm payrolls data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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