Trader consensus reflects Xi Jinping's entrenched control over China's political and military institutions, with no verified coup attempts materializing despite January 2026 rumors surrounding the purge of top PLA generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli over corruption and security leaks. Official investigations quelled speculation of a foiled plot involving thousands of arrests, signaling robust intelligence and loyalty within the People's Liberation Army and Communist Party apparatus. The March Two Sessions further projected stability, setting 4.5-5% growth targets amid economic challenges, absent factional challenges or public unrest. While elite purges continue, structural barriers like surveillance and centralized power make a pre-2027 coup unlikely barring unprecedented scandals, health events, or mass defections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$119,506 Vol.
$119,506 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$119,506 Vol.
$119,506 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects Xi Jinping's entrenched control over China's political and military institutions, with no verified coup attempts materializing despite January 2026 rumors surrounding the purge of top PLA generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli over corruption and security leaks. Official investigations quelled speculation of a foiled plot involving thousands of arrests, signaling robust intelligence and loyalty within the People's Liberation Army and Communist Party apparatus. The March Two Sessions further projected stability, setting 4.5-5% growth targets amid economic challenges, absent factional challenges or public unrest. While elite purges continue, structural barriers like surveillance and centralized power make a pre-2027 coup unlikely barring unprecedented scandals, health events, or mass defections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$119,506End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects Xi Jinping's entrenched control over China's political and military institutions, with no verified coup attempts materializing despite January 2026 rumors surrounding the purge of top PLA generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli over corruption and security leaks. Official investigations quelled speculation of a foiled plot involving thousands of arrests, signaling robust intelligence and loyalty within the People's Liberation Army and Communist Party apparatus. The March Two Sessions further projected stability, setting 4.5-5% growth targets amid economic challenges, absent factional challenges or public unrest. While elite purges continue, structural barriers like surveillance and centralized power make a pre-2027 coup unlikely barring unprecedented scandals, health events, or mass defections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$119,506End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects Xi Jinping's entrenched control over China's political and military institutions, with no verified coup attempts materializing despite January 2026 rumors surrounding the purge of top PLA generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli over corruption and security leaks. Official investigations quelled speculation of a foiled plot involving thousands of arrests, signaling robust intelligence and loyalty within the People's Liberation Army and Communist Party apparatus. The March Two Sessions further projected stability, setting 4.5-5% growth targets amid economic challenges, absent factional challenges or public unrest. While elite purges continue, structural barriers like surveillance and centralized power make a pre-2027 coup unlikely barring unprecedented scandals, health events, or mass defections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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