Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of the People’s Liberation Army and select civilian leaders have removed more than 100 senior officers since 2022, including Central Military Commission vice chairmen Zhang Youxia and He Weidong plus other top generals in 2025–2026 on charges of corruption, factionalism, and disloyalty. These actions have left the CMC reduced to Xi and a single remaining vice chairman while installing replacements vetted for absolute loyalty ahead of the 2027 party congress. No verified coup attempts or organized challenges have surfaced in credible reporting despite occasional unconfirmed rumors. Traders view the combination of institutional controls, elite consolidation, and preemptive removals of potential rivals as strong barriers to any attempt materializing before the end of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
$159,088 Vol.
$159,088 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
$159,088 Vol.
$159,088 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of the People’s Liberation Army and select civilian leaders have removed more than 100 senior officers since 2022, including Central Military Commission vice chairmen Zhang Youxia and He Weidong plus other top generals in 2025–2026 on charges of corruption, factionalism, and disloyalty. These actions have left the CMC reduced to Xi and a single remaining vice chairman while installing replacements vetted for absolute loyalty ahead of the 2027 party congress. No verified coup attempts or organized challenges have surfaced in credible reporting despite occasional unconfirmed rumors. Traders view the combination of institutional controls, elite consolidation, and preemptive removals of potential rivals as strong barriers to any attempt materializing before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$159,088End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of the People’s Liberation Army and select civilian leaders have removed more than 100 senior officers since 2022, including Central Military Commission vice chairmen Zhang Youxia and He Weidong plus other top generals in 2025–2026 on charges of corruption, factionalism, and disloyalty. These actions have left the CMC reduced to Xi and a single remaining vice chairman while installing replacements vetted for absolute loyalty ahead of the 2027 party congress. No verified coup attempts or organized challenges have surfaced in credible reporting despite occasional unconfirmed rumors. Traders view the combination of institutional controls, elite consolidation, and preemptive removals of potential rivals as strong barriers to any attempt materializing before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$159,088End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of the People’s Liberation Army and select civilian leaders have removed more than 100 senior officers since 2022, including Central Military Commission vice chairmen Zhang Youxia and He Weidong plus other top generals in 2025–2026 on charges of corruption, factionalism, and disloyalty. These actions have left the CMC reduced to Xi and a single remaining vice chairman while installing replacements vetted for absolute loyalty ahead of the 2027 party congress. No verified coup attempts or organized challenges have surfaced in credible reporting despite occasional unconfirmed rumors. Traders view the combination of institutional controls, elite consolidation, and preemptive removals of potential rivals as strong barriers to any attempt materializing before the end of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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