Xi Jinping’s ongoing military purges, including the September 21, 2026, Politburo expulsion of former Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli for corruption, disloyalty, and forming cliques, have further consolidated authority ahead of the late-October plenum and 2027 Party Congress. These actions follow years of removals that have sidelined over 100 senior PLA officers and left the commission with minimal independent figures. No credible reporting has documented coordinated elite opposition, public institutional fractures, or executed challenges within the resolution window. Unverified social media rumors of plots have been repeatedly debunked by open-source analysis, while internal discipline mechanisms and loyalty enforcement continue to contain risks, aligning with the market’s strong consensus against an attempt before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
$159,036 Vol.
$159,036 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
$159,036 Vol.
$159,036 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s ongoing military purges, including the September 21, 2026, Politburo expulsion of former Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli for corruption, disloyalty, and forming cliques, have further consolidated authority ahead of the late-October plenum and 2027 Party Congress. These actions follow years of removals that have sidelined over 100 senior PLA officers and left the commission with minimal independent figures. No credible reporting has documented coordinated elite opposition, public institutional fractures, or executed challenges within the resolution window. Unverified social media rumors of plots have been repeatedly debunked by open-source analysis, while internal discipline mechanisms and loyalty enforcement continue to contain risks, aligning with the market’s strong consensus against an attempt before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$159,036End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s ongoing military purges, including the September 21, 2026, Politburo expulsion of former Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli for corruption, disloyalty, and forming cliques, have further consolidated authority ahead of the late-October plenum and 2027 Party Congress. These actions follow years of removals that have sidelined over 100 senior PLA officers and left the commission with minimal independent figures. No credible reporting has documented coordinated elite opposition, public institutional fractures, or executed challenges within the resolution window. Unverified social media rumors of plots have been repeatedly debunked by open-source analysis, while internal discipline mechanisms and loyalty enforcement continue to contain risks, aligning with the market’s strong consensus against an attempt before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$159,036End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s ongoing military purges, including the September 21, 2026, Politburo expulsion of former Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli for corruption, disloyalty, and forming cliques, have further consolidated authority ahead of the late-October plenum and 2027 Party Congress. These actions follow years of removals that have sidelined over 100 senior PLA officers and left the commission with minimal independent figures. No credible reporting has documented coordinated elite opposition, public institutional fractures, or executed challenges within the resolution window. Unverified social media rumors of plots have been repeatedly debunked by open-source analysis, while internal discipline mechanisms and loyalty enforcement continue to contain risks, aligning with the market’s strong consensus against an attempt before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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