Xi Jinping’s repeated purges of senior People’s Liberation Army commanders, including the 2026 removal of Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia, have centralized authority and reinforced institutional loyalty mechanisms within the party and military. These actions, framed officially as anti-corruption measures, have dismantled potential rival networks and left the leadership structure dominated by Xi-aligned personnel ahead of the 2027 party congress. Unverified rumors of health issues or factional plots have surfaced periodically but lack confirmation from official channels or independent reporting. Trader consensus at 95.8% for “No” reflects this sustained consolidation, though an unforeseen leadership vacuum, major external crisis, or undetected internal fracture before the end of 2026 could still alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$159,110 Vol.
$159,110 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
$159,110 Vol.
$159,110 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s repeated purges of senior People’s Liberation Army commanders, including the 2026 removal of Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia, have centralized authority and reinforced institutional loyalty mechanisms within the party and military. These actions, framed officially as anti-corruption measures, have dismantled potential rival networks and left the leadership structure dominated by Xi-aligned personnel ahead of the 2027 party congress. Unverified rumors of health issues or factional plots have surfaced periodically but lack confirmation from official channels or independent reporting. Trader consensus at 95.8% for “No” reflects this sustained consolidation, though an unforeseen leadership vacuum, major external crisis, or undetected internal fracture before the end of 2026 could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$159,110End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s repeated purges of senior People’s Liberation Army commanders, including the 2026 removal of Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia, have centralized authority and reinforced institutional loyalty mechanisms within the party and military. These actions, framed officially as anti-corruption measures, have dismantled potential rival networks and left the leadership structure dominated by Xi-aligned personnel ahead of the 2027 party congress. Unverified rumors of health issues or factional plots have surfaced periodically but lack confirmation from official channels or independent reporting. Trader consensus at 95.8% for “No” reflects this sustained consolidation, though an unforeseen leadership vacuum, major external crisis, or undetected internal fracture before the end of 2026 could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070be91...Xi Jinping’s repeated purges of senior People’s Liberation Army commanders, including the 2026 removal of Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia, have centralized authority and reinforced institutional loyalty mechanisms within the party and military. These actions, framed officially as anti-corruption measures, have dismantled potential rival networks and left the leadership structure dominated by Xi-aligned personnel ahead of the 2027 party congress. Unverified rumors of health issues or factional plots have surfaced periodically but lack confirmation from official channels or independent reporting. Trader consensus at 95.8% for “No” reflects this sustained consolidation, though an unforeseen leadership vacuum, major external crisis, or undetected internal fracture before the end of 2026 could still alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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