Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of People’s Liberation Army leadership, including the September 2026 Politburo expulsion of Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli on charges of disloyalty and corruption, have reinforced centralized control over the military ahead of the 2027 party congress. These actions, part of a multi-year campaign that has removed or sidelined over 100 senior officers since 2022, target potential rival networks without evidence of coordinated opposition emerging in credible reporting. Traders view the resulting institutional consolidation, combined with ongoing elite discipline measures and the absence of verified plots, as the primary factors behind the strong consensus against any coup attempt by year-end. Late-breaking health developments or unforeseen external shocks remain the main variables that could alter this assessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$159,110 Vol.
$159,110 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
$159,110 Vol.
$159,110 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of People’s Liberation Army leadership, including the September 2026 Politburo expulsion of Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli on charges of disloyalty and corruption, have reinforced centralized control over the military ahead of the 2027 party congress. These actions, part of a multi-year campaign that has removed or sidelined over 100 senior officers since 2022, target potential rival networks without evidence of coordinated opposition emerging in credible reporting. Traders view the resulting institutional consolidation, combined with ongoing elite discipline measures and the absence of verified plots, as the primary factors behind the strong consensus against any coup attempt by year-end. Late-breaking health developments or unforeseen external shocks remain the main variables that could alter this assessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$159,110End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of People’s Liberation Army leadership, including the September 2026 Politburo expulsion of Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli on charges of disloyalty and corruption, have reinforced centralized control over the military ahead of the 2027 party congress. These actions, part of a multi-year campaign that has removed or sidelined over 100 senior officers since 2022, target potential rival networks without evidence of coordinated opposition emerging in credible reporting. Traders view the resulting institutional consolidation, combined with ongoing elite discipline measures and the absence of verified plots, as the primary factors behind the strong consensus against any coup attempt by year-end. Late-breaking health developments or unforeseen external shocks remain the main variables that could alter this assessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$159,110End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of People’s Liberation Army leadership, including the September 2026 Politburo expulsion of Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli on charges of disloyalty and corruption, have reinforced centralized control over the military ahead of the 2027 party congress. These actions, part of a multi-year campaign that has removed or sidelined over 100 senior officers since 2022, target potential rival networks without evidence of coordinated opposition emerging in credible reporting. Traders view the resulting institutional consolidation, combined with ongoing elite discipline measures and the absence of verified plots, as the primary factors behind the strong consensus against any coup attempt by year-end. Late-breaking health developments or unforeseen external shocks remain the main variables that could alter this assessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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