Trader consensus prices "No" at 94.3% for a China coup attempt before 2027, reflecting Xi Jinping's firm control amid the Chinese Communist Party's opaque Leninist structure, which historically deters military rebellions. Late January 2026's high-profile purge of Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia—Xi's longtime ally—and Gen. Liu Zhenli on corruption and alleged nuclear leak charges fueled brief coup rumors, including unverified claims of a thwarted plot on January 18, but no evidence emerged of disloyalty succeeding or broader unrest. Since early March's National People's Congress sessions proceeded routinely with policy enactments like ethnic unity laws, absent fresh military purges or factional signals, traders see formidable barriers persisting, though economic pressures or scandals could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$110,901 Vol.
$110,901 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$110,901 Vol.
$110,901 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 94.3% for a China coup attempt before 2027, reflecting Xi Jinping's firm control amid the Chinese Communist Party's opaque Leninist structure, which historically deters military rebellions. Late January 2026's high-profile purge of Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia—Xi's longtime ally—and Gen. Liu Zhenli on corruption and alleged nuclear leak charges fueled brief coup rumors, including unverified claims of a thwarted plot on January 18, but no evidence emerged of disloyalty succeeding or broader unrest. Since early March's National People's Congress sessions proceeded routinely with policy enactments like ethnic unity laws, absent fresh military purges or factional signals, traders see formidable barriers persisting, though economic pressures or scandals could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$110,901End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 94.3% for a China coup attempt before 2027, reflecting Xi Jinping's firm control amid the Chinese Communist Party's opaque Leninist structure, which historically deters military rebellions. Late January 2026's high-profile purge of Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia—Xi's longtime ally—and Gen. Liu Zhenli on corruption and alleged nuclear leak charges fueled brief coup rumors, including unverified claims of a thwarted plot on January 18, but no evidence emerged of disloyalty succeeding or broader unrest. Since early March's National People's Congress sessions proceeded routinely with policy enactments like ethnic unity laws, absent fresh military purges or factional signals, traders see formidable barriers persisting, though economic pressures or scandals could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$110,901End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 94.3% for a China coup attempt before 2027, reflecting Xi Jinping's firm control amid the Chinese Communist Party's opaque Leninist structure, which historically deters military rebellions. Late January 2026's high-profile purge of Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia—Xi's longtime ally—and Gen. Liu Zhenli on corruption and alleged nuclear leak charges fueled brief coup rumors, including unverified claims of a thwarted plot on January 18, but no evidence emerged of disloyalty succeeding or broader unrest. Since early March's National People's Congress sessions proceeded routinely with policy enactments like ethnic unity laws, absent fresh military purges or factional signals, traders see formidable barriers persisting, though economic pressures or scandals could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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