Xi Jinping’s ongoing consolidation of authority through sustained military and party purges underpins the 93.8% implied probability that no coup attempt will occur before 2027. On September 21, Chinese authorities expelled former Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli from the Communist Party for corruption, factionalism, and political disloyalty, extending a campaign that has removed dozens of senior PLA officers. This action occurred days before Xi’s scheduled U.S. summit with President Trump and weeks ahead of an October Central Committee plenum on internal discipline. Mid-September social media rumors of Xi’s illness or rival mobilization during the BRICS summit lacked confirmation and were refuted by open-source analysis showing no troop movements or institutional breakdown. With the resolution window now limited to a few months and no verified elite fractures, trader pricing reflects the absence of credible challenges to leadership continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
$159,035 Vol.
$159,035 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
$159,035 Vol.
$159,035 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s ongoing consolidation of authority through sustained military and party purges underpins the 93.8% implied probability that no coup attempt will occur before 2027. On September 21, Chinese authorities expelled former Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli from the Communist Party for corruption, factionalism, and political disloyalty, extending a campaign that has removed dozens of senior PLA officers. This action occurred days before Xi’s scheduled U.S. summit with President Trump and weeks ahead of an October Central Committee plenum on internal discipline. Mid-September social media rumors of Xi’s illness or rival mobilization during the BRICS summit lacked confirmation and were refuted by open-source analysis showing no troop movements or institutional breakdown. With the resolution window now limited to a few months and no verified elite fractures, trader pricing reflects the absence of credible challenges to leadership continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$159,035End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s ongoing consolidation of authority through sustained military and party purges underpins the 93.8% implied probability that no coup attempt will occur before 2027. On September 21, Chinese authorities expelled former Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli from the Communist Party for corruption, factionalism, and political disloyalty, extending a campaign that has removed dozens of senior PLA officers. This action occurred days before Xi’s scheduled U.S. summit with President Trump and weeks ahead of an October Central Committee plenum on internal discipline. Mid-September social media rumors of Xi’s illness or rival mobilization during the BRICS summit lacked confirmation and were refuted by open-source analysis showing no troop movements or institutional breakdown. With the resolution window now limited to a few months and no verified elite fractures, trader pricing reflects the absence of credible challenges to leadership continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070be91...Xi Jinping’s ongoing consolidation of authority through sustained military and party purges underpins the 93.8% implied probability that no coup attempt will occur before 2027. On September 21, Chinese authorities expelled former Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli from the Communist Party for corruption, factionalism, and political disloyalty, extending a campaign that has removed dozens of senior PLA officers. This action occurred days before Xi’s scheduled U.S. summit with President Trump and weeks ahead of an October Central Committee plenum on internal discipline. Mid-September social media rumors of Xi’s illness or rival mobilization during the BRICS summit lacked confirmation and were refuted by open-source analysis showing no troop movements or institutional breakdown. With the resolution window now limited to a few months and no verified elite fractures, trader pricing reflects the absence of credible challenges to leadership continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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