Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including the September 2026 expulsion of Central Military Commission figures Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli for disciplinary violations, have reinforced centralized control over the military and party apparatus. These moves, part of a years-long anti-corruption and loyalty campaign that has removed over 100 high-ranking officers, are viewed by analysts as eliminating potential sources of organized opposition rather than exposing fractures. Periodic online rumors of plots, such as those circulating in January 2026, have consistently lacked verification from credible reporting. With the 2027 Communist Party Congress approaching, the current structure of institutional oversight and elite management leaves little room for a coup attempt to materialize before year-end. Late-breaking developments like an unforeseen leadership health crisis or acute economic disruption could theoretically shift conditions, though such triggers remain speculative within the narrow timeframe.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$159,110 Vol.
$159,110 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
$159,110 Vol.
$159,110 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including the September 2026 expulsion of Central Military Commission figures Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli for disciplinary violations, have reinforced centralized control over the military and party apparatus. These moves, part of a years-long anti-corruption and loyalty campaign that has removed over 100 high-ranking officers, are viewed by analysts as eliminating potential sources of organized opposition rather than exposing fractures. Periodic online rumors of plots, such as those circulating in January 2026, have consistently lacked verification from credible reporting. With the 2027 Communist Party Congress approaching, the current structure of institutional oversight and elite management leaves little room for a coup attempt to materialize before year-end. Late-breaking developments like an unforeseen leadership health crisis or acute economic disruption could theoretically shift conditions, though such triggers remain speculative within the narrow timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$159,110End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including the September 2026 expulsion of Central Military Commission figures Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli for disciplinary violations, have reinforced centralized control over the military and party apparatus. These moves, part of a years-long anti-corruption and loyalty campaign that has removed over 100 high-ranking officers, are viewed by analysts as eliminating potential sources of organized opposition rather than exposing fractures. Periodic online rumors of plots, such as those circulating in January 2026, have consistently lacked verification from credible reporting. With the 2027 Communist Party Congress approaching, the current structure of institutional oversight and elite management leaves little room for a coup attempt to materialize before year-end. Late-breaking developments like an unforeseen leadership health crisis or acute economic disruption could theoretically shift conditions, though such triggers remain speculative within the narrow timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070be91...Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including the September 2026 expulsion of Central Military Commission figures Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli for disciplinary violations, have reinforced centralized control over the military and party apparatus. These moves, part of a years-long anti-corruption and loyalty campaign that has removed over 100 high-ranking officers, are viewed by analysts as eliminating potential sources of organized opposition rather than exposing fractures. Periodic online rumors of plots, such as those circulating in January 2026, have consistently lacked verification from credible reporting. With the 2027 Communist Party Congress approaching, the current structure of institutional oversight and elite management leaves little room for a coup attempt to materialize before year-end. Late-breaking developments like an unforeseen leadership health crisis or acute economic disruption could theoretically shift conditions, though such triggers remain speculative within the narrow timeframe.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions