Xi Jinping’s sustained anti-corruption campaign and political discipline drive within the People’s Liberation Army underpin the strong trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Since 2023, dozens of senior officers have been removed, with the September 2026 Politburo expulsion of former Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli on charges of bribery, cliques, and disloyalty marking the latest step in a process that has left only one general alongside Xi on the commission. These actions, presented as enforcing absolute loyalty to the party center, have eliminated potential rival networks without public evidence of coordinated opposition or institutional fractures in credible reporting. Unverified social-media claims of plots have repeatedly been debunked, and no widely reported coup attempt has materialized in the resolution window through late 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
$159,036 Vol.
$159,036 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
$159,036 Vol.
$159,036 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained anti-corruption campaign and political discipline drive within the People’s Liberation Army underpin the strong trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Since 2023, dozens of senior officers have been removed, with the September 2026 Politburo expulsion of former Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli on charges of bribery, cliques, and disloyalty marking the latest step in a process that has left only one general alongside Xi on the commission. These actions, presented as enforcing absolute loyalty to the party center, have eliminated potential rival networks without public evidence of coordinated opposition or institutional fractures in credible reporting. Unverified social-media claims of plots have repeatedly been debunked, and no widely reported coup attempt has materialized in the resolution window through late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$159,036End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained anti-corruption campaign and political discipline drive within the People’s Liberation Army underpin the strong trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Since 2023, dozens of senior officers have been removed, with the September 2026 Politburo expulsion of former Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli on charges of bribery, cliques, and disloyalty marking the latest step in a process that has left only one general alongside Xi on the commission. These actions, presented as enforcing absolute loyalty to the party center, have eliminated potential rival networks without public evidence of coordinated opposition or institutional fractures in credible reporting. Unverified social-media claims of plots have repeatedly been debunked, and no widely reported coup attempt has materialized in the resolution window through late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$159,036End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s sustained anti-corruption campaign and political discipline drive within the People’s Liberation Army underpin the strong trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Since 2023, dozens of senior officers have been removed, with the September 2026 Politburo expulsion of former Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli on charges of bribery, cliques, and disloyalty marking the latest step in a process that has left only one general alongside Xi on the commission. These actions, presented as enforcing absolute loyalty to the party center, have eliminated potential rival networks without public evidence of coordinated opposition or institutional fractures in credible reporting. Unverified social-media claims of plots have repeatedly been debunked, and no widely reported coup attempt has materialized in the resolution window through late 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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