Xi Jinping’s ongoing consolidation of authority through military purges underpins the strong trader consensus against a coup attempt. On September 21, 2026, the Politburo expelled former Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli from the party and military on charges of corruption, forming cliques, and political disloyalty—the latest in a series of removals that have decimated the PLA’s senior command since 2022. These actions, framed as enforcing absolute loyalty to the party center, have left only one general alongside Xi on the commission and installed vetted figures ahead of the late-October plenum. No verified reports of coordinated opposition, elite fractures, or organized challenges have surfaced in credible sources, while unverified social-media rumors of plots or leadership health issues have been quickly debunked. The absence of public institutional breakdowns or rival power centers supports the view that internal discipline mechanisms continue to contain risks through year-end 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
$159,036 Vol.
$159,036 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
$159,036 Vol.
$159,036 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s ongoing consolidation of authority through military purges underpins the strong trader consensus against a coup attempt. On September 21, 2026, the Politburo expelled former Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli from the party and military on charges of corruption, forming cliques, and political disloyalty—the latest in a series of removals that have decimated the PLA’s senior command since 2022. These actions, framed as enforcing absolute loyalty to the party center, have left only one general alongside Xi on the commission and installed vetted figures ahead of the late-October plenum. No verified reports of coordinated opposition, elite fractures, or organized challenges have surfaced in credible sources, while unverified social-media rumors of plots or leadership health issues have been quickly debunked. The absence of public institutional breakdowns or rival power centers supports the view that internal discipline mechanisms continue to contain risks through year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$159,036End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s ongoing consolidation of authority through military purges underpins the strong trader consensus against a coup attempt. On September 21, 2026, the Politburo expelled former Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli from the party and military on charges of corruption, forming cliques, and political disloyalty—the latest in a series of removals that have decimated the PLA’s senior command since 2022. These actions, framed as enforcing absolute loyalty to the party center, have left only one general alongside Xi on the commission and installed vetted figures ahead of the late-October plenum. No verified reports of coordinated opposition, elite fractures, or organized challenges have surfaced in credible sources, while unverified social-media rumors of plots or leadership health issues have been quickly debunked. The absence of public institutional breakdowns or rival power centers supports the view that internal discipline mechanisms continue to contain risks through year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$159,036End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s ongoing consolidation of authority through military purges underpins the strong trader consensus against a coup attempt. On September 21, 2026, the Politburo expelled former Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli from the party and military on charges of corruption, forming cliques, and political disloyalty—the latest in a series of removals that have decimated the PLA’s senior command since 2022. These actions, framed as enforcing absolute loyalty to the party center, have left only one general alongside Xi on the commission and installed vetted figures ahead of the late-October plenum. No verified reports of coordinated opposition, elite fractures, or organized challenges have surfaced in credible sources, while unverified social-media rumors of plots or leadership health issues have been quickly debunked. The absence of public institutional breakdowns or rival power centers supports the view that internal discipline mechanisms continue to contain risks through year-end 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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