Xi Jinping's ongoing consolidation of power through extensive purges of the People's Liberation Army high command, including the January 2026 investigations and September expulsions of senior figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission, underpins trader expectations that no coup attempt will occur before 2027. These actions have removed potential rivals and reinforced Xi's unchallenged authority over party and military institutions ahead of the 21st Party Congress in late 2027. Circulating rumors of internal challenges have lacked verifiable evidence and appear tied to the anti-corruption campaign rather than organized opposition. While the opaque system allows for low-probability shifts from sudden leadership health events or unforeseen factional realignments, current institutional controls and absence of credible dissent sustain the strong consensus against such an outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$159,110 Vol.
$159,110 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
$159,110 Vol.
$159,110 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping's ongoing consolidation of power through extensive purges of the People's Liberation Army high command, including the January 2026 investigations and September expulsions of senior figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission, underpins trader expectations that no coup attempt will occur before 2027. These actions have removed potential rivals and reinforced Xi's unchallenged authority over party and military institutions ahead of the 21st Party Congress in late 2027. Circulating rumors of internal challenges have lacked verifiable evidence and appear tied to the anti-corruption campaign rather than organized opposition. While the opaque system allows for low-probability shifts from sudden leadership health events or unforeseen factional realignments, current institutional controls and absence of credible dissent sustain the strong consensus against such an outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$159,110End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping's ongoing consolidation of power through extensive purges of the People's Liberation Army high command, including the January 2026 investigations and September expulsions of senior figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission, underpins trader expectations that no coup attempt will occur before 2027. These actions have removed potential rivals and reinforced Xi's unchallenged authority over party and military institutions ahead of the 21st Party Congress in late 2027. Circulating rumors of internal challenges have lacked verifiable evidence and appear tied to the anti-corruption campaign rather than organized opposition. While the opaque system allows for low-probability shifts from sudden leadership health events or unforeseen factional realignments, current institutional controls and absence of credible dissent sustain the strong consensus against such an outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070be91...Xi Jinping's ongoing consolidation of power through extensive purges of the People's Liberation Army high command, including the January 2026 investigations and September expulsions of senior figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission, underpins trader expectations that no coup attempt will occur before 2027. These actions have removed potential rivals and reinforced Xi's unchallenged authority over party and military institutions ahead of the 21st Party Congress in late 2027. Circulating rumors of internal challenges have lacked verifiable evidence and appear tied to the anti-corruption campaign rather than organized opposition. While the opaque system allows for low-probability shifts from sudden leadership health events or unforeseen factional realignments, current institutional controls and absence of credible dissent sustain the strong consensus against such an outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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