Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of the People’s Liberation Army high command, including the January and September 2026 expulsions of Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and other senior generals for disloyalty and corruption, have dismantled potential rival networks while reinforcing centralized control ahead of the 2027 Party Congress. Open-source analysis has repeatedly debunked social-media claims of plots or health-related power struggles, with no verified evidence of coordinated action meeting the market’s criteria for an attempted coup. Traders assign the 95.6% probability to “No” based on this pattern of elite consolidation and institutional safeguards. Late-breaking developments such as an undetected internal split or sudden leadership incapacity could still shift odds, though none appear imminent in credible reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$159,110 Vol.
$159,110 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
$159,110 Vol.
$159,110 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of the People’s Liberation Army high command, including the January and September 2026 expulsions of Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and other senior generals for disloyalty and corruption, have dismantled potential rival networks while reinforcing centralized control ahead of the 2027 Party Congress. Open-source analysis has repeatedly debunked social-media claims of plots or health-related power struggles, with no verified evidence of coordinated action meeting the market’s criteria for an attempted coup. Traders assign the 95.6% probability to “No” based on this pattern of elite consolidation and institutional safeguards. Late-breaking developments such as an undetected internal split or sudden leadership incapacity could still shift odds, though none appear imminent in credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$159,110End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of the People’s Liberation Army high command, including the January and September 2026 expulsions of Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and other senior generals for disloyalty and corruption, have dismantled potential rival networks while reinforcing centralized control ahead of the 2027 Party Congress. Open-source analysis has repeatedly debunked social-media claims of plots or health-related power struggles, with no verified evidence of coordinated action meeting the market’s criteria for an attempted coup. Traders assign the 95.6% probability to “No” based on this pattern of elite consolidation and institutional safeguards. Late-breaking developments such as an undetected internal split or sudden leadership incapacity could still shift odds, though none appear imminent in credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070be91...Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of the People’s Liberation Army high command, including the January and September 2026 expulsions of Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and other senior generals for disloyalty and corruption, have dismantled potential rival networks while reinforcing centralized control ahead of the 2027 Party Congress. Open-source analysis has repeatedly debunked social-media claims of plots or health-related power struggles, with no verified evidence of coordinated action meeting the market’s criteria for an attempted coup. Traders assign the 95.6% probability to “No” based on this pattern of elite consolidation and institutional safeguards. Late-breaking developments such as an undetected internal split or sudden leadership incapacity could still shift odds, though none appear imminent in credible reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions