Xi Jinping’s extensive anti-corruption purges and loyalty enforcement within the People’s Liberation Army and Communist Party elite have removed senior figures including Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli, along with dozens of other generals and officials through 2026. These actions, framed as rooting out factionalism and disloyalty, have dismantled potential rival networks ahead of the 2027 party congress and an October plenum on internal governance. Social-media claims of plots have consistently failed verification by open-source checks. Traders view the resulting consolidation of party and military discipline as the primary barrier to any coup attempt before year-end. Late health developments affecting top leaders or sudden external shocks remain the narrowest realistic paths that could still shift the low implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5% chance
$159,088 Vol.
$159,088 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
$159,088 Vol.
$159,088 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive anti-corruption purges and loyalty enforcement within the People’s Liberation Army and Communist Party elite have removed senior figures including Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli, along with dozens of other generals and officials through 2026. These actions, framed as rooting out factionalism and disloyalty, have dismantled potential rival networks ahead of the 2027 party congress and an October plenum on internal governance. Social-media claims of plots have consistently failed verification by open-source checks. Traders view the resulting consolidation of party and military discipline as the primary barrier to any coup attempt before year-end. Late health developments affecting top leaders or sudden external shocks remain the narrowest realistic paths that could still shift the low implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$159,088End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive anti-corruption purges and loyalty enforcement within the People’s Liberation Army and Communist Party elite have removed senior figures including Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli, along with dozens of other generals and officials through 2026. These actions, framed as rooting out factionalism and disloyalty, have dismantled potential rival networks ahead of the 2027 party congress and an October plenum on internal governance. Social-media claims of plots have consistently failed verification by open-source checks. Traders view the resulting consolidation of party and military discipline as the primary barrier to any coup attempt before year-end. Late health developments affecting top leaders or sudden external shocks remain the narrowest realistic paths that could still shift the low implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$159,088End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s extensive anti-corruption purges and loyalty enforcement within the People’s Liberation Army and Communist Party elite have removed senior figures including Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli, along with dozens of other generals and officials through 2026. These actions, framed as rooting out factionalism and disloyalty, have dismantled potential rival networks ahead of the 2027 party congress and an October plenum on internal governance. Social-media claims of plots have consistently failed verification by open-source checks. Traders view the resulting consolidation of party and military discipline as the primary barrier to any coup attempt before year-end. Late health developments affecting top leaders or sudden external shocks remain the narrowest realistic paths that could still shift the low implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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