Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of People’s Liberation Army leadership have dismantled potential rival networks within the Central Military Commission and senior commands, driving trader consensus that a coup attempt before 2027 remains improbable. Since 2023, investigations have removed over 100 officers, including the January 2026 expulsions of Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli for disloyalty and corruption-related violations. These actions, framed as enforcing absolute party loyalty, left the CMC with minimal uniformed members alongside Xi and produced no verified coordinated opposition in credible reporting. Recent September 2026 Politburo actions further signaled consolidation ahead of the October plenum and 2027 congress. While health developments, sudden elite fractures, or external shocks could theoretically alter dynamics in the narrow remaining window, institutional controls and elite realignment underpin the 95.6% implied probability for no attempt.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$159,110 Vol.
$159,110 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
$159,110 Vol.
$159,110 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of People’s Liberation Army leadership have dismantled potential rival networks within the Central Military Commission and senior commands, driving trader consensus that a coup attempt before 2027 remains improbable. Since 2023, investigations have removed over 100 officers, including the January 2026 expulsions of Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli for disloyalty and corruption-related violations. These actions, framed as enforcing absolute party loyalty, left the CMC with minimal uniformed members alongside Xi and produced no verified coordinated opposition in credible reporting. Recent September 2026 Politburo actions further signaled consolidation ahead of the October plenum and 2027 congress. While health developments, sudden elite fractures, or external shocks could theoretically alter dynamics in the narrow remaining window, institutional controls and elite realignment underpin the 95.6% implied probability for no attempt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$159,110End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of People’s Liberation Army leadership have dismantled potential rival networks within the Central Military Commission and senior commands, driving trader consensus that a coup attempt before 2027 remains improbable. Since 2023, investigations have removed over 100 officers, including the January 2026 expulsions of Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli for disloyalty and corruption-related violations. These actions, framed as enforcing absolute party loyalty, left the CMC with minimal uniformed members alongside Xi and produced no verified coordinated opposition in credible reporting. Recent September 2026 Politburo actions further signaled consolidation ahead of the October plenum and 2027 congress. While health developments, sudden elite fractures, or external shocks could theoretically alter dynamics in the narrow remaining window, institutional controls and elite realignment underpin the 95.6% implied probability for no attempt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070be91...Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of People’s Liberation Army leadership have dismantled potential rival networks within the Central Military Commission and senior commands, driving trader consensus that a coup attempt before 2027 remains improbable. Since 2023, investigations have removed over 100 officers, including the January 2026 expulsions of Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli for disloyalty and corruption-related violations. These actions, framed as enforcing absolute party loyalty, left the CMC with minimal uniformed members alongside Xi and produced no verified coordinated opposition in credible reporting. Recent September 2026 Politburo actions further signaled consolidation ahead of the October plenum and 2027 congress. While health developments, sudden elite fractures, or external shocks could theoretically alter dynamics in the narrow remaining window, institutional controls and elite realignment underpin the 95.6% implied probability for no attempt.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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