Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 96.4% for no coup attempt in China before 2027, driven by President Xi Jinping's unprecedented military purges that have removed dozens of senior People's Liberation Army (PLA) officers, including top generals like Zhang Youxia, since early 2026. These actions, framed as anti-corruption drives, have consolidated Xi's command over the Central Military Commission and Communist Party of China (CCP) elite, debunking January rumors of a failed plot involving 3,000 arrests as Xi's preemptive power plays. No verified challenges have emerged in recent months amid ongoing Two Sessions preparations and economic stabilization efforts. Realistic shifts could stem from severe economic contraction, PLA setbacks in Taiwan contingencies, or Xi's health decline, though institutional loyalty remains robust.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$126,951 Vol.
$126,951 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$126,951 Vol.
$126,951 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 96.4% for no coup attempt in China before 2027, driven by President Xi Jinping's unprecedented military purges that have removed dozens of senior People's Liberation Army (PLA) officers, including top generals like Zhang Youxia, since early 2026. These actions, framed as anti-corruption drives, have consolidated Xi's command over the Central Military Commission and Communist Party of China (CCP) elite, debunking January rumors of a failed plot involving 3,000 arrests as Xi's preemptive power plays. No verified challenges have emerged in recent months amid ongoing Two Sessions preparations and economic stabilization efforts. Realistic shifts could stem from severe economic contraction, PLA setbacks in Taiwan contingencies, or Xi's health decline, though institutional loyalty remains robust.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$126,951End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 96.4% for no coup attempt in China before 2027, driven by President Xi Jinping's unprecedented military purges that have removed dozens of senior People's Liberation Army (PLA) officers, including top generals like Zhang Youxia, since early 2026. These actions, framed as anti-corruption drives, have consolidated Xi's command over the Central Military Commission and Communist Party of China (CCP) elite, debunking January rumors of a failed plot involving 3,000 arrests as Xi's preemptive power plays. No verified challenges have emerged in recent months amid ongoing Two Sessions preparations and economic stabilization efforts. Realistic shifts could stem from severe economic contraction, PLA setbacks in Taiwan contingencies, or Xi's health decline, though institutional loyalty remains robust.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$126,951End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 96.4% for no coup attempt in China before 2027, driven by President Xi Jinping's unprecedented military purges that have removed dozens of senior People's Liberation Army (PLA) officers, including top generals like Zhang Youxia, since early 2026. These actions, framed as anti-corruption drives, have consolidated Xi's command over the Central Military Commission and Communist Party of China (CCP) elite, debunking January rumors of a failed plot involving 3,000 arrests as Xi's preemptive power plays. No verified challenges have emerged in recent months amid ongoing Two Sessions preparations and economic stabilization efforts. Realistic shifts could stem from severe economic contraction, PLA setbacks in Taiwan contingencies, or Xi's health decline, though institutional loyalty remains robust.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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