Xi Jinping has consolidated authority over the People’s Liberation Army through repeated high-level purges, including the September 2026 expulsion of Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and chief of staff Liu Zhenli on charges of corruption, factionalism, and disloyalty. These moves have reduced the CMC to a minimal core loyal to the leadership and reinforced party discipline ahead of the 2027 congress. Periodic unverified rumors of plots, often originating from overseas dissident accounts and amplified on social media, have surfaced without producing verifiable military action or elite defections. Trader consensus at 96.3% for no coup attempt by 2027 reflects this pattern of centralized control and the absence of sustained challenges. Low-probability shifts could still arise from abrupt leadership health events, severe economic dislocations fracturing elite cohesion, or major external crises exposing command fractures.