Xi Jinping maintains firm personalistic control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army through repeated high-level purges, most recently targeting senior generals in early 2026, which have reinforced rather than eroded central authority. Trader consensus at 95.7% on no coup attempt before 2027 reflects the absence of verifiable organized opposition or factional resistance capable of mounting a challenge, consistent with patterns where prior rumors of instability have not materialized into action. Structural factors such as the party's Leninist discipline and lack of succession mechanisms further limit openings for internal upheaval. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden health event affecting top leadership, a major external crisis fracturing elite cohesion, or unexpected realignments ahead of the next leadership transition window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$129,690 Объем
$129,690 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$129,690 Объем
$129,690 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping maintains firm personalistic control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army through repeated high-level purges, most recently targeting senior generals in early 2026, which have reinforced rather than eroded central authority. Trader consensus at 95.7% on no coup attempt before 2027 reflects the absence of verifiable organized opposition or factional resistance capable of mounting a challenge, consistent with patterns where prior rumors of instability have not materialized into action. Structural factors such as the party's Leninist discipline and lack of succession mechanisms further limit openings for internal upheaval. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden health event affecting top leadership, a major external crisis fracturing elite cohesion, or unexpected realignments ahead of the next leadership transition window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Объем
$129,690Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping maintains firm personalistic control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army through repeated high-level purges, most recently targeting senior generals in early 2026, which have reinforced rather than eroded central authority. Trader consensus at 95.7% on no coup attempt before 2027 reflects the absence of verifiable organized opposition or factional resistance capable of mounting a challenge, consistent with patterns where prior rumors of instability have not materialized into action. Structural factors such as the party's Leninist discipline and lack of succession mechanisms further limit openings for internal upheaval. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden health event affecting top leadership, a major external crisis fracturing elite cohesion, or unexpected realignments ahead of the next leadership transition window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$129,690Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping maintains firm personalistic control over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army through repeated high-level purges, most recently targeting senior generals in early 2026, which have reinforced rather than eroded central authority. Trader consensus at 95.7% on no coup attempt before 2027 reflects the absence of verifiable organized opposition or factional resistance capable of mounting a challenge, consistent with patterns where prior rumors of instability have not materialized into action. Structural factors such as the party's Leninist discipline and lack of succession mechanisms further limit openings for internal upheaval. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden health event affecting top leadership, a major external crisis fracturing elite cohesion, or unexpected realignments ahead of the next leadership transition window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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