The high implied probability against a China coup attempt before 2027 stems from the Chinese Communist Party's centralized power structure and Xi Jinping's long-standing consolidation of authority through military reforms, anti-corruption drives, and loyalty mechanisms within the People's Liberation Army. Recent leadership transitions and party congresses have reinforced internal discipline without visible fractures or succession crises that could invite challenges. Traders price in significant structural barriers, including pervasive surveillance, rapid response security forces, and a historical record of stability since the 1970s. While economic pressures or external shocks could test resilience, realistic paths to a coup attempt remain narrow and would require unprecedented breakdowns in elite cohesion that current evidence does not indicate.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$128,326 Объем
$128,326 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$128,326 Объем
$128,326 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The high implied probability against a China coup attempt before 2027 stems from the Chinese Communist Party's centralized power structure and Xi Jinping's long-standing consolidation of authority through military reforms, anti-corruption drives, and loyalty mechanisms within the People's Liberation Army. Recent leadership transitions and party congresses have reinforced internal discipline without visible fractures or succession crises that could invite challenges. Traders price in significant structural barriers, including pervasive surveillance, rapid response security forces, and a historical record of stability since the 1970s. While economic pressures or external shocks could test resilience, realistic paths to a coup attempt remain narrow and would require unprecedented breakdowns in elite cohesion that current evidence does not indicate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Объем
$128,326Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The high implied probability against a China coup attempt before 2027 stems from the Chinese Communist Party's centralized power structure and Xi Jinping's long-standing consolidation of authority through military reforms, anti-corruption drives, and loyalty mechanisms within the People's Liberation Army. Recent leadership transitions and party congresses have reinforced internal discipline without visible fractures or succession crises that could invite challenges. Traders price in significant structural barriers, including pervasive surveillance, rapid response security forces, and a historical record of stability since the 1970s. While economic pressures or external shocks could test resilience, realistic paths to a coup attempt remain narrow and would require unprecedented breakdowns in elite cohesion that current evidence does not indicate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$128,326Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The high implied probability against a China coup attempt before 2027 stems from the Chinese Communist Party's centralized power structure and Xi Jinping's long-standing consolidation of authority through military reforms, anti-corruption drives, and loyalty mechanisms within the People's Liberation Army. Recent leadership transitions and party congresses have reinforced internal discipline without visible fractures or succession crises that could invite challenges. Traders price in significant structural barriers, including pervasive surveillance, rapid response security forces, and a historical record of stability since the 1970s. While economic pressures or external shocks could test resilience, realistic paths to a coup attempt remain narrow and would require unprecedented breakdowns in elite cohesion that current evidence does not indicate.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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