The Trump administration's May 28, 2026, State Department action designating Brazil's Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho (CV) as Specially Designated Global Terrorists—with Foreign Terrorist Organization status effective June 5—has anchored trader consensus at 97.4% for a "Yes" outcome by year-end. This step aligns with the administration's established pattern of applying terrorism designations to major transnational criminal networks involved in narcotics trafficking and cross-border violence, following similar moves against groups in Mexico, Colombia, and Haiti. Lobbying from Brazilian opposition figures, including Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, contributed to the policy momentum amid bilateral friction with the Lula government. With the designations already finalized well before the December 31 resolution window, the elevated probability reflects confirmed implementation rather than forecast. Limited remaining uncertainty centers on any hypothetical administrative reversal or clarification of scope, though no such developments have emerged.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$23,414 Объем
$23,414 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$23,414 Объем
$23,414 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally designates Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) or Comando Vermelho (CV) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
This includes designation as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and/or as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT), as well as executive action by the President, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new federal designation that formally designates Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) or Comando Vermelho (CV) as a terrorist organization.
Statements by government officials, including the President, DHS, or FBI, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration's May 28, 2026, State Department action designating Brazil's Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho (CV) as Specially Designated Global Terrorists—with Foreign Terrorist Organization status effective June 5—has anchored trader consensus at 97.4% for a "Yes" outcome by year-end. This step aligns with the administration's established pattern of applying terrorism designations to major transnational criminal networks involved in narcotics trafficking and cross-border violence, following similar moves against groups in Mexico, Colombia, and Haiti. Lobbying from Brazilian opposition figures, including Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, contributed to the policy momentum amid bilateral friction with the Lula government. With the designations already finalized well before the December 31 resolution window, the elevated probability reflects confirmed implementation rather than forecast. Limited remaining uncertainty centers on any hypothetical administrative reversal or clarification of scope, though no such developments have emerged.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally designates Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) or Comando Vermelho (CV) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
This includes designation as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and/or as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT), as well as executive action by the President, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new federal designation that formally designates Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) or Comando Vermelho (CV) as a terrorist organization.
Statements by government officials, including the President, DHS, or FBI, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes designation as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and/or as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT), as well as executive action by the President, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new federal designation that formally designates Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) or Comando Vermelho (CV) as a terrorist organization.
Statements by government officials, including the President, DHS, or FBI, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: May 28, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Объем
$23,414Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 28, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Да
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Да
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally designates Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) or Comando Vermelho (CV) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
This includes designation as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and/or as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT), as well as executive action by the President, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new federal designation that formally designates Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) or Comando Vermelho (CV) as a terrorist organization.
Statements by government officials, including the President, DHS, or FBI, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration's May 28, 2026, State Department action designating Brazil's Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho (CV) as Specially Designated Global Terrorists—with Foreign Terrorist Organization status effective June 5—has anchored trader consensus at 97.4% for a "Yes" outcome by year-end. This step aligns with the administration's established pattern of applying terrorism designations to major transnational criminal networks involved in narcotics trafficking and cross-border violence, following similar moves against groups in Mexico, Colombia, and Haiti. Lobbying from Brazilian opposition figures, including Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, contributed to the policy momentum amid bilateral friction with the Lula government. With the designations already finalized well before the December 31 resolution window, the elevated probability reflects confirmed implementation rather than forecast. Limited remaining uncertainty centers on any hypothetical administrative reversal or clarification of scope, though no such developments have emerged.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally designates Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) or Comando Vermelho (CV) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
This includes designation as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and/or as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT), as well as executive action by the President, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new federal designation that formally designates Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) or Comando Vermelho (CV) as a terrorist organization.
Statements by government officials, including the President, DHS, or FBI, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes designation as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and/or as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT), as well as executive action by the President, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new federal designation that formally designates Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) or Comando Vermelho (CV) as a terrorist organization.
Statements by government officials, including the President, DHS, or FBI, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$23,414Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 28, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Да
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Да
The Trump administration's May 28, 2026, State Department action designating Brazil's Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho (CV) as Specially Designated Global Terrorists—with Foreign Terrorist Organization status effective June 5—has anchored trader consensus at 97.4% for a "Yes" outcome by year-end. This step aligns with the administration's established pattern of applying terrorism designations to major transnational criminal networks involved in narcotics trafficking and cross-border violence, following similar moves against groups in Mexico, Colombia, and Haiti. Lobbying from Brazilian opposition figures, including Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, contributed to the policy momentum amid bilateral friction with the Lula government. With the designations already finalized well before the December 31 resolution window, the elevated probability reflects confirmed implementation rather than forecast. Limited remaining uncertainty centers on any hypothetical administrative reversal or clarification of scope, though no such developments have emerged.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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