US-mediated talks between Israel and Lebanon resumed in Washington in April 2026 after the prior ceasefire collapsed amid the Iran conflict, producing repeated short-term truces and a framework for direct negotiations on border security, Lebanese sovereignty, and Hezbollah’s future role. The most recent June 2-3 round yielded agreement on a renewed ceasefire and pilot demilitarized zones south of the Litani River, contingent on Hezbollah halting fire and withdrawing fighters; Hezbollah promptly rejected the terms and demanded full Israeli withdrawal instead. Lebanon’s government has pursued the diplomatic track, but Hezbollah’s military capacity and non-participation in formal talks remain central obstacles. Next sessions are scheduled for the week of June 22, while traders weigh these dynamics against historical precedent for durable agreements requiring verifiable disarmament or integration steps.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
$2,910,415 Объем
15 июн. 2026 г.
June 15
1%
June 30
3%
$2,910,415 Объем
June 15
$715,368 Объем
1%
June 30
$486,534 Объем
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-mediated talks between Israel and Lebanon resumed in Washington in April 2026 after the prior ceasefire collapsed amid the Iran conflict, producing repeated short-term truces and a framework for direct negotiations on border security, Lebanese sovereignty, and Hezbollah’s future role. The most recent June 2-3 round yielded agreement on a renewed ceasefire and pilot demilitarized zones south of the Litani River, contingent on Hezbollah halting fire and withdrawing fighters; Hezbollah promptly rejected the terms and demanded full Israeli withdrawal instead. Lebanon’s government has pursued the diplomatic track, but Hezbollah’s military capacity and non-participation in formal talks remain central obstacles. Next sessions are scheduled for the week of June 22, while traders weigh these dynamics against historical precedent for durable agreements requiring verifiable disarmament or integration steps.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: May 25, 2026, 11:16 AM ET
Объем
$2,910,415Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 25, 2026, 11:16 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-mediated talks between Israel and Lebanon resumed in Washington in April 2026 after the prior ceasefire collapsed amid the Iran conflict, producing repeated short-term truces and a framework for direct negotiations on border security, Lebanese sovereignty, and Hezbollah’s future role. The most recent June 2-3 round yielded agreement on a renewed ceasefire and pilot demilitarized zones south of the Litani River, contingent on Hezbollah halting fire and withdrawing fighters; Hezbollah promptly rejected the terms and demanded full Israeli withdrawal instead. Lebanon’s government has pursued the diplomatic track, but Hezbollah’s military capacity and non-participation in formal talks remain central obstacles. Next sessions are scheduled for the week of June 22, while traders weigh these dynamics against historical precedent for durable agreements requiring verifiable disarmament or integration steps.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$2,910,415Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 25, 2026, 11:16 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-mediated talks between Israel and Lebanon resumed in Washington in April 2026 after the prior ceasefire collapsed amid the Iran conflict, producing repeated short-term truces and a framework for direct negotiations on border security, Lebanese sovereignty, and Hezbollah’s future role. The most recent June 2-3 round yielded agreement on a renewed ceasefire and pilot demilitarized zones south of the Litani River, contingent on Hezbollah halting fire and withdrawing fighters; Hezbollah promptly rejected the terms and demanded full Israeli withdrawal instead. Lebanon’s government has pursued the diplomatic track, but Hezbollah’s military capacity and non-participation in formal talks remain central obstacles. Next sessions are scheduled for the week of June 22, while traders weigh these dynamics against historical precedent for durable agreements requiring verifiable disarmament or integration steps.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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