This market will resolve to “Biden” if Joe Biden's national polling in the US general elections is higher than Donald Trump's as reported by FiveThirtyEight for the day of July 4, 2024. This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump's national polling in the US general elections is higher than Joe Biden's as reported by FiveThirtyEight for the day of July 4, 2024. If Biden and Trump poll equally, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election polls aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve according to the datapoints for July 4 as soon as datapoints for July 5 become available. This market may not resolve until the July 5 datapoints are available. If no datapoints for July 4 are available by July 7, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to July 4.

Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.