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Biden vs Trump: who polls higher 1 week after debate?

Market icon

Biden vs Trump: who polls higher 1 week after debate?

Biden

>99% chance
Polymarket

$19,539 Vol.

Biden

>99% chance
Polymarket

$19,539 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Biden” if Joe Biden's national polling in the US general elections is higher than Donald Trump's as reported by FiveThirtyEight for the day of July 4, 2024. This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump's national polling in the US general elections is higher than Joe Biden's as reported by FiveThirtyEight for the day of July 4, 2024. If Biden and Trump poll equally, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election polls aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve according to the datapoints for July 4 as soon as datapoints for July 5 become available. This market may not resolve until the July 5 datapoints are available. If no datapoints for July 4 are available by July 7, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to July 4. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

This market will resolve to “Biden” if Joe Biden's national polling in the US general elections is higher than Donald Trump's as reported by FiveThirtyEight for the day of July 4, 2024. This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump's national polling in the US general elections is higher than Joe Biden's as reported by FiveThirtyEight for the day of July 4, 2024. If Biden and Trump poll equally, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election polls aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve according to the datapoints for July 4 as soon as datapoints for July 5 become available. This market may not resolve until the July 5 datapoints are available. If no datapoints for July 4 are available by July 7, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to July 4.

Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$19,539
End Date
Jul 4, 2024
Market Opened
Jun 27, 2024, 1:56 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Biden” if Joe Biden's national polling in the US general elections is higher than Donald Trump's as reported by FiveThirtyEight for the day of July 4, 2024. This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump's national polling in the US general elections is higher than Joe Biden's as reported by FiveThirtyEight for the day of July 4, 2024. If Biden and Trump poll equally, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election polls aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve according to the datapoints for July 4 as soon as datapoints for July 5 become available. This market may not resolve until the July 5 datapoints are available. If no datapoints for July 4 are available by July 7, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to July 4. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Outcome proposed: Trump

No dispute

Final outcome: Trump

This market will resolve to “Biden” if Joe Biden's national polling in the US general elections is higher than Donald Trump's as reported by FiveThirtyEight for the day of July 4, 2024. This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump's national polling in the US general elections is higher than Joe Biden's as reported by FiveThirtyEight for the day of July 4, 2024. If Biden and Trump poll equally, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election polls aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve according to the datapoints for July 4 as soon as datapoints for July 5 become available. This market may not resolve until the July 5 datapoints are available. If no datapoints for July 4 are available by July 7, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to July 4. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

This market will resolve to “Biden” if Joe Biden's national polling in the US general elections is higher than Donald Trump's as reported by FiveThirtyEight for the day of July 4, 2024. This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump's national polling in the US general elections is higher than Joe Biden's as reported by FiveThirtyEight for the day of July 4, 2024. If Biden and Trump poll equally, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election polls aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve according to the datapoints for July 4 as soon as datapoints for July 5 become available. This market may not resolve until the July 5 datapoints are available. If no datapoints for July 4 are available by July 7, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to July 4.

Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$19,539
End Date
Jul 4, 2024
Market Opened
Jun 27, 2024, 1:56 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Biden” if Joe Biden's national polling in the US general elections is higher than Donald Trump's as reported by FiveThirtyEight for the day of July 4, 2024. This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump's national polling in the US general elections is higher than Joe Biden's as reported by FiveThirtyEight for the day of July 4, 2024. If Biden and Trump poll equally, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election polls aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines for this market's resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve according to the datapoints for July 4 as soon as datapoints for July 5 become available. This market may not resolve until the July 5 datapoints are available. If no datapoints for July 4 are available by July 7, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to July 4. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Outcome proposed: Trump

No dispute

Final outcome: Trump

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Biden vs Trump: who polls higher 1 week after debate?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Biden vs Trump: who polls higher 1 week after debate?" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 0¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 0% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Biden vs Trump: who polls higher 1 week after debate?" has generated $19.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 27, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Biden vs Trump: who polls higher 1 week after debate?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Biden vs Trump: who polls higher 1 week after debate?" is "Biden vs Trump: who polls higher 1 week after debate?" at just 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Biden vs Trump: who polls higher 1 week after debate?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.