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Politics·Geopolitics

Another US military action against Iran before August?

Name: Another US military action against Iran before August?
Start: 2025-07-31T00:00:00.000Z
End: 2025-07-31T00:00:00.000Z

Ended: Jul 31, 2025

Feb 28

Jun 30

<1% chance

$315,624 Vol.

Jul 31, 2025

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between June 26, 7:00 PM ET and, July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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