Name: Alpha Arena Season 1.5 AI trading competition winner?
Start: 2025-11-21T20:01:46.796184Z

Use the internal polymarket geolocation service.

poly_geo

Improved notification preferences and types.

notifications_v2

funkit_deposit

funkit_withdraw

authenticated_book_ws

Improved in-game view for sports markets.

mobile_sports_overlay_v2

async_order_submission

Enable updates from the sports websocket.

sports_websocket

The second iteration of Nof1's Alpha Arena AI trading competition, Alpha Arena Season 1.5, launched on November 19, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the AI model listed below that shows the highest account value on the NOF1.ai leaderboard (https://nof1.ai/leaderboard) when the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition concludes.

Results from the leaderboard displayed on https://nof1.ai/leaderboard, showing the total account value for each model, will be used to resolve this market.

Any AI model whose total account value equals zero before the check time will be considered eliminated and may resolve “No” immediately.

If two or more models are tied for the highest account value at the time of resolution, the tiebreaker will be determined first by the higher Win Rate. If a tie still remains, resolution will be based on the alphabetical order of the models’ company names as listed.

If the leaderboard is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard becomes available and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If the leaderboard becomes permanently unavailable, or if the competition does not finish, this market will resolve based on the latest reliable reports available.


Unknown

Alibaba

Anthropic

Google

DeepSeek

OpenAI

Kimi

Alpha Arena Season 1.5 AI trading competition winner?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed modeI ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.


Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?

This market will resolve according to the listed entity which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1500+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If no company's model reaches 1500 Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None by June 30".

If the first model to reach a 1500+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?

This market will resolve to the NFT with the highest ROI at the end of the Based AI trading competition beginning on December 2, 2025.

The resolution source is the official Based leaderboard available at: https://app.based.one/arena

If two or more NFTs are tied for the highest ROI at resolution time, the market will resolve to the NFT with the lowest ID number according to the official Based leaderboard.

If the competition is not completed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or if the official leaderboard or final results are unavailable, the market will remain open until Based publishes reliable data. If no such data becomes available by that date, the market will resolve to “Other.”

Will NFT #375 win the Based trading competition?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches an Arena Score of 1500+ by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the “Arena Score” section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/. If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins IMO gold medal
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark
- AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred,  this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

This market will resolve to the company which owns the model that has the top LiveBench “coding average” score, as based off the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. 

If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

This market will resolve to the company which owns the model that has the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. 

If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?

This market will resolve to the listed participant with the highest PnL at the end of the Defi App trading competition starting on November 10, 2025.

The resolution source will be the Defi App Leaderboard on https://app.defi.app/contest.

If two or more participants are tied for the highest PnL at the time of resolution, the market will resolve to the participant whose display name appears first in alphabetical order on the official Defi App leaderboard.

If the competition is not completed or the official leaderboard is unavailable, the market will remain open until reliable data is published by Defi App. If no such data becomes available by January 31, 2026 ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”

Note: The official competition includes a large number of participants, however this market will resolve solely based on the listed group of KOL participants. Traders who are not eligible KOLs will not be considered. An eligible KOL will be considered to have won if they are the top trader out of eligible KOLs, regardless of if one of the non-KOL participants finishes ahead of them.

Will AOI win the Defi App trading competition?

This market will resolve to the listed participant with the highest PnL at the end of the Orderly trading competition starting on November 14, 2025.

The resolution source will be the Orderly Heavyweight Leaderboard on https://app.orderly.network/campaigns.

If two or more participants are tied for the highest PnL at the time of resolution, the market will resolve to the participant whose display name appears first in alphabetical order on the official Orderly Heavyweight Leaderboard.

If the competition is not completed or the official leaderboard is unavailable, the market will remain open until reliable data is published by Orderly. If no such data becomes available by December 31, 2025 ET, the market will resolve to “Other".

Will Taiki Maeda win the Orderly trading competition?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.

This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.

This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the team who finishes fifth in the Constructor’s Championship for the 2025 F1 season.

In the case of a tie between two teams, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically.

As soon as the results for the final scheduled race of the 2025 F1 season are known, this market will resolve.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to finish in fifth place in the 2025 F1 Constructor's Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), this market will resolve to “No.”

If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.

Will Williams finish fifth in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship?

This market will resolve according to the team who finishes second in the Constructor’s Championship for the 2025 F1 season. 

In the case of a tie between two teams, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically.

As soon as the results for the final scheduled race of the 2025 F1 season are known this market will resolve.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to finish second place in the 2025 F1 Constructor's Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), this market will resolve to “No.”

If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.

Will Mercedes finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship?

This market will resolve according to the team who finishes third in the Constructor’s Championship for the 2025 F1 season.

In the case of a tie between two teams, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically.

As soon as the results for the final scheduled race of the 2025 F1 season are known, this market will resolve.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to finish in third place in the 2025 F1 Constructor's Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), this market will resolve to “No.”

If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.

Will Red Bull finish third in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI achieves a public valuation of $1 trillion USD or more, or raises a private funding round that values the company at $1 trillion or more between June 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. 

The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2025?

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, an AI model which is a Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) has the highest score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) is any model for which official publicly released documentation, such as a model card, technical paper, or official statements from its developers, clearly identifies diffusion or iterative denoising as a central part of its text-generation or decoding process.

Results from the "Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two or models are tied for the top arena score at any point, this market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the joint-top ranked models are Diffusion Large Language Models.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on all published Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard rankings prior to the period of lack of availability.

Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.

OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.

Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.

If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.

If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will 

The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

This market will resolve according to the team who finishes fourth in the Constructor’s Championship for the 2025 F1 season.

In the case of a tie between two teams, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically.

As soon as the results for the final scheduled race of the 2025 F1 season are known, this market will resolve.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to finish in fourth place in the 2025 F1 Constructor's Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), this market will resolve to “No.”

If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.

Will Ferrari finish fourth in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at any point any Google Gemini 3 model has at least the specified arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) by December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2025 F1 season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

As soon as the results for the final scheduled race of the 2025 F1 season are known this market will resolve.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), this market will resolve to “No”.

If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1. 


Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Hive x Betmoar Genesis Cup, which is a trading competition scheduled to end December 16, 2025.

If the Genesis Cup is postponed after January 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared by January 31, 2026 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If multiple competitors are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the competitor whose listed name comes first alphabetically.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Betmoar (see: https://www.betmoar.fun/contest/hive); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will GenesisCupChampion win the Genesis Cup?

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025 NBA Cup. 

If at any point this team is eliminated from contention to win the NBA Cup, this market will automatically resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Cup?

This market will resolve according to the driver that finishes 5th in the driver standings for the 2025 F1 season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

As soon as the results for the final scheduled race of the 2025 F1 season are known, this market will resolve.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to place 5th in the driver standings for the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), this market will resolve to “No”.

If the F1 season has not been completed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.

Alpha Arena Season 1.5 AI trading competition winner?

xAI
$86,286 Vol.
No

Unknown
$56,082 Vol.
Yes

Alibaba
$48,616 Vol.
No

Anthropic
$24,425 Vol.
No

Google
$24,363 Vol.
No

DeepSeek
$40,865 Vol.
No

OpenAI
$33,404 Vol.
No

Kimi
$36,390 Vol.
No

Market Context

Alpha Arena Season 1.5 AI trading competition winner?

Rules

Alpha Arena Season 1.5 AI trading competition winner?

Market Context

Alpha Arena Season 1.5 AI trading competition winner?

About

Related

Alpha Arena Season 1.5 AI trading competition winner?

xAI$86,286 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Unknown$56,082 Vol.Yescircle check

Alibaba$48,616 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Anthropic$24,425 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Google$24,363 Vol.Nocircle xmark

DeepSeek$40,865 Vol.Nocircle xmark

OpenAI$33,404 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Kimi$36,390 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

Alpha Arena Season 1.5 AI trading competition winner?

Rules

Alpha Arena Season 1.5 AI trading competition winner?

Market Context

Alpha Arena Season 1.5 AI trading competition winner?

About

Related

xAI
$86,286 Vol.
No

Unknown
$56,082 Vol.
Yes

Alibaba
$48,616 Vol.
No

Anthropic
$24,425 Vol.
No

Google
$24,363 Vol.
No

DeepSeek
$40,865 Vol.
No

OpenAI
$33,404 Vol.
No

Kimi
$36,390 Vol.
No