Traders' overwhelming 99.6% implied probability for 19°C as Tel Aviv's highest temperature on March 22 stems from converging numerical weather prediction models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside the Israel Meteorological Service's latest forecast pinpointing a daytime max of 19°C under persistent low-pressure influence over the eastern Mediterranean. This aligns with recent cool anomalies in the region, where March historical averages hover around 20°C but current synoptic patterns—featuring northerly winds and cloud cover—suppress warming. Scenarios challenging this include an unforeseen breakdown in the low-pressure trough allowing a brief warm surge from the south, though ensemble spreads indicate under 1% risk, with official observations set to resolve the market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 22?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 22?
19°C 99.5%
20°C <1%
22°C <1%
21°C <1%
$141,000 Vol.
$141,000 Vol.
19°C
100%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
19°C 99.5%
20°C <1%
22°C <1%
21°C <1%
$141,000 Vol.
$141,000 Vol.
19°C
100%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ben Gurion Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders' overwhelming 99.6% implied probability for 19°C as Tel Aviv's highest temperature on March 22 stems from converging numerical weather prediction models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside the Israel Meteorological Service's latest forecast pinpointing a daytime max of 19°C under persistent low-pressure influence over the eastern Mediterranean. This aligns with recent cool anomalies in the region, where March historical averages hover around 20°C but current synoptic patterns—featuring northerly winds and cloud cover—suppress warming. Scenarios challenging this include an unforeseen breakdown in the low-pressure trough allowing a brief warm surge from the south, though ensemble spreads indicate under 1% risk, with official observations set to resolve the market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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