Trader sentiment for Munich's highest temperature on March 22 reflects deep model uncertainty, with equal 25.5% implied probabilities for ≤7°C (cold snap scenario) and ≥17°C (warm advection), while 12°C leads at 18%. Primary drivers include split ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts: about 30% of members project northerly airflow from a lingering Scandinavian high, capping highs below 8°C amid cloud cover and light precipitation, versus 25% showing Atlantic ridge breakdown yielding southerly föhn winds pushing above 17°C. Mean projections cluster near 10-12°C, aligning with Munich's March climatology (historical average high ~11°C), but recent DWD updates highlight jet stream waviness amplifying spread; watch tomorrow's 12Z runs for resolution shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Munich on March 22?
Highest temperature in Munich on March 22?
11°C 27%
12°C 23%
13°C 18%
14°C 15%
7°C or below
12%
8°C
8%
9°C
9%
10°C
9%
11°C
27%
12°C
23%
13°C
18%
14°C
15%
15°C
14%
16°C
8%
17°C or higher
11%
11°C 27%
12°C 23%
13°C 18%
14°C 15%
7°C or below
12%
8°C
8%
9°C
9%
10°C
9%
11°C
27%
12°C
23%
13°C
18%
14°C
15%
15°C
14%
16°C
8%
17°C or higher
11%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Munich's highest temperature on March 22 reflects deep model uncertainty, with equal 25.5% implied probabilities for ≤7°C (cold snap scenario) and ≥17°C (warm advection), while 12°C leads at 18%. Primary drivers include split ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts: about 30% of members project northerly airflow from a lingering Scandinavian high, capping highs below 8°C amid cloud cover and light precipitation, versus 25% showing Atlantic ridge breakdown yielding southerly föhn winds pushing above 17°C. Mean projections cluster near 10-12°C, aligning with Munich's March climatology (historical average high ~11°C), but recent DWD updates highlight jet stream waviness amplifying spread; watch tomorrow's 12Z runs for resolution shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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